Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

The first two polls after the self-pardon talk -- California and Nevada, together 61 electoral votes.


Former President (and Governor of California about fifty years ago) Ronald Reagan must be spinning in his grave.

Quote:PPIC - California:

Approve 25%
Disapprove 71%

Only 68% of California Republicans and 33% of Independents approve of Trump.

Source

Donald Trump must remind many Californians of their landlords, arguably the least-beloved of entrepreneurs to middle-class people. But this may be the first statewide poll in the wake of the 'self-pardon' talk.  If this is not a fluke, then any new polls of such states as Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington could be going into the 'deep red' category.

This "71" is so far the highest disapproval that I have seen of the President in any state, tying the Gallup composite from January to July in Vermont. I'm not sure that a current poll of Vermont would be any better for the President Trump. But Vermont gets polled little... three electoral votes and dull politics is less interesting than 55 electoral votes and dull politics.

neighboring Nevada (PPP):

Quote:PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

For one of the usual battleground states, Nevada gets polled rather little. Remember: this poll is newer than a reasonable estimate of the Gallup composite that averages (as I understand) from April.  Most polls (barring favorability polls, polls by special interests, internal polls, and polls with the suspect "electric green fried potatoes" wording will supplant the Gallup composites which are older and of declining relevance. I am no longer using the excuse 'Beggars can't be choosers' to accept just about any poll. The Nevada poll is not a category-changer. It is still consistent with Trump losing about 3% support since April, which is still within the range of error.   

Nevada, although extremely urban, is a low-income state with lower-than-average educational achievement, so it should be more amenable to President Trump than such states as Colorado and Virginia. But Trump is doing badly in Nevada.     






Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher