05-03-2019, 01:43 PM
(05-02-2019, 01:18 PM)David Horn Wrote:(05-01-2019, 07:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If Biden can pull out a win in Iowa, (and get all of Maine), then he can lose Wisconsin, Arizona, NC, GA and FL and still beat Trump, who would only have 263 electoral votes.
I suspect Sanders has more of an advantage in Wisconsin, and would have to win it, and would lose Iowa and those other states. Sanders would only have 269 if he wins all the other Democratic states and all of Maine, but loses Wisconsin, Iowa, AZ, NC, GA and FL.
In that case, the electoral vote would be tied. The House would be Republican today if the electoral college is tied 269-269 and they get the decision, because it votes by state, and delegations now are 26-23 Republican with one tie. So 269-269 would be a Trump victory, unless the electoral college remains deadlocked until after Jan.3 and the Democrats gain a couple of state delegations in the Nov. 2020 election, or in special elections earlier.
Biden's strength is his warmth and everyman persona. I suspect he would do well in all the Rust Belt states, but I'm less certain about the West. Bernie seems to be melting down, though that may be temporary. The rest are, well, the rest.
The Dems need to whittle their prospective list to four or five very quickly. If they don't, their messages will become so muddled that it will be hard to remember who favors what. That leaves them open to be defined by the Orange One.
I could be wrong, but I think CO, NV and NM have gone blue for keeps now. A large part of that is demographics. Trump has practically declared war on Latin Americans, which are well represented in those states, and the people there are getting younger too. Environmentalism is big in Colorado too. I think the stronger Democrats, Biden and Sanders, can keep those states blue. Arizona is slipping from the red grasp, and so is Texas, but for now I think Trump has the advantage there.
That's right; the Democrats' message could get muddled with all these nobodies in the race. I don't know why so many have entered this year. Democrats underestimate Trump and think they can beat him. That opinion burned us last time; we'd better choose a candidate who at least has a chance, and then go all out to support him.