10-07-2019, 04:56 PM
Somebody fills the state polling data. There are no huge surprises here except for Alaska and Kansas.
Can anybody suggest to me why Trump can win if his disapproval numbers are 50% or higher in so many states barring miracles, fraud, or force?
Quote:Quote:Quote:https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...d&map=true
The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):
Quote:Nevada: 38/59
Arizona: 45/52
Colorado: 39/58
Texas: 48/48
Kansas: 48/48
Iowa: 44/53
Minnesota: 40/58
Wisconsin: 45/52
Michigan: 44/53
Ohio: 48/48
Florida: 47/50
Georgia: 46/51
North Carolina: 45/52
Virginia: 40/57
Pennsylvania: 42/54
New Hampshire: 38/59
Maine: 41/56
Nationally, Trump's approval is 42/55.
I have seen relatively few recent statewide polls (VA, WI, OH) newer than these. It's good for some fill-ins and updates
Others to fill in
AL 57-40
AS 47-50
AR 62-35
CA 28-70
CT 34-62
DE 40-57
DC (don't be stupid, probably 15-83 at best for Trump)
HI 25-72
ID 59-38
IL 34-64
IN 52-45
KY 61-35
LA 53-44
MD 28-68
MA 24-73
MS 53-44
MO 52-44
MT 51-45
NJ 36-61
NM 40-56
ND 65-32
NE 54-43
OK 62-34
OR 33-64
RI 33-64
SC 49-47
SD 58-39
TN 55-42
UT 49-45
VT 26-71
WA 32-65
WV 67-30
WY 65-31
Trump approval:
40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher
Can anybody suggest to me why Trump can win if his disapproval numbers are 50% or higher in so many states barring miracles, fraud, or force?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.