11-14-2020, 04:07 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2020, 05:24 AM by Eric the Green.)
The Republicans got a surge of votes in the election, but it was not enough to re-elect Trump because just enough people in swing states realized who and what Trump is, something that even some Republican and a lot of independent voters could not quite stomach as being president another 4 years.
The Biden electoral vote will be 306 to Trump's 232, which exactly reverses Trump's triumph over Hillary R. Clinton in 2016.
Ohio and Iowa should be considered red states now for the foreseeable future. Unlike what Obama says, I don't think we should campaign for red states anymore. These people are hopeless. We just have to defeat them until they die off.
Florida also seems hopeless, at least for a while. The Cuban young people are falling in line with the deception that rules their elders. Older people tend to vote for the old ways. Even felons with restored rights, the Parkland kids, migrations from Puerto Rico and Haiti, the rising seas, floods and storms due to climate change, and concerns over covid, social security and health care, could not move these dufus Florida beasts to do the right thing. Shame, shame on them! They will probably sink and drown in the blue sea before they ever turn blue enough to stop the tide. They have it coming to them.
The other 7 states probably remain in swing territory, but Texas too should probably be given up on for a while. Hispanics there too are going over to the dark side. It may turn blue someday, but I don't hold out much hope for this anytime soon. Contrary to what brower said, Texas only moved 3 points left in 2020 from 2016, from 9 points to 6 points. That's a slow turn indeed. So maybe there will be a 50-50 chance in 2028 if trends continue. Georgia and Arizona made bigger blue gains.
Arizona was a lot closer than the polls indicated. So it remains a swing state, but the trend there and in Nevada remains blue. The West seems better able to rise above the fog and go with the future. I think these two states will continue to trend more blue.
The blue wall was restored. If the Democrats choose their candidate wisely, and avoid Kamala Harris, then they may keep it from being dismantled again in the future. Pennsylvania is divided between urban and rural. But Philadelphia is no longer a declining city, so hope remains for PA to remain blue. Wisconsin remains a razor thin swing state, and Michigan will stay blue if a good Democratic candidate is nominated. But the working class in these states needs to remember who is on their side, and not get deceived by phony appeals like the ones Trump made.
North Carolina has been slowly moving to the blue side, but I don't know if it will. I keep hoping and being disappointed. The polls said it would be 2% blue, but it was 1% red. But Georgia's urban areas are growing fast with lots of former northerners moving to them. I think there's a good chance it will stay blue now, if the Democrats nominate a good candidate.
The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.
I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.
The national popular vote, which will remain irrelevant for the foreseeable future, is now up to Biden +3.5%, gradually moving toward a 6 million vote margin. New York still refuses to count its remaining ballots, and CA counting is glacial. So his lead may end up bigger. I remember that the polls never had Biden up much higher than 50-51%. Trump's support was usually put at about 43%. But that always left a large undecided vote of about 4-5%, which remained until election day, and so most late deciders evidently went to Trump, or they were too ashamed to say that they were going to vote for him, but were wavering or didn't want to admit it.
The Biden electoral vote will be 306 to Trump's 232, which exactly reverses Trump's triumph over Hillary R. Clinton in 2016.
Ohio and Iowa should be considered red states now for the foreseeable future. Unlike what Obama says, I don't think we should campaign for red states anymore. These people are hopeless. We just have to defeat them until they die off.
Florida also seems hopeless, at least for a while. The Cuban young people are falling in line with the deception that rules their elders. Older people tend to vote for the old ways. Even felons with restored rights, the Parkland kids, migrations from Puerto Rico and Haiti, the rising seas, floods and storms due to climate change, and concerns over covid, social security and health care, could not move these dufus Florida beasts to do the right thing. Shame, shame on them! They will probably sink and drown in the blue sea before they ever turn blue enough to stop the tide. They have it coming to them.
The other 7 states probably remain in swing territory, but Texas too should probably be given up on for a while. Hispanics there too are going over to the dark side. It may turn blue someday, but I don't hold out much hope for this anytime soon. Contrary to what brower said, Texas only moved 3 points left in 2020 from 2016, from 9 points to 6 points. That's a slow turn indeed. So maybe there will be a 50-50 chance in 2028 if trends continue. Georgia and Arizona made bigger blue gains.
Arizona was a lot closer than the polls indicated. So it remains a swing state, but the trend there and in Nevada remains blue. The West seems better able to rise above the fog and go with the future. I think these two states will continue to trend more blue.
The blue wall was restored. If the Democrats choose their candidate wisely, and avoid Kamala Harris, then they may keep it from being dismantled again in the future. Pennsylvania is divided between urban and rural. But Philadelphia is no longer a declining city, so hope remains for PA to remain blue. Wisconsin remains a razor thin swing state, and Michigan will stay blue if a good Democratic candidate is nominated. But the working class in these states needs to remember who is on their side, and not get deceived by phony appeals like the ones Trump made.
North Carolina has been slowly moving to the blue side, but I don't know if it will. I keep hoping and being disappointed. The polls said it would be 2% blue, but it was 1% red. But Georgia's urban areas are growing fast with lots of former northerners moving to them. I think there's a good chance it will stay blue now, if the Democrats nominate a good candidate.
The Democrats, if the millennials vote, have a chance to turn senate seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina blue in 2022. The idea that red states would vote for a blue senator turned out to be way wrong. I would give up on that project for the foreseeable future. So it depends on whether the millennials have become true civics and will vote, and whether they vote Democratic in these 3 swing states in 2022. If the Democrats ever win the Senate, they will have to take down the filibuster because the Republicans remain a stone wall. Otherwise, the government and politics are no longer viable instruments to solve problems, and we have to rely on blue states and on the market to bring change. Democratic presidents may be able to decree some things if they can get past the Trump/Bush Court. Negotiating with cretin dinosaurs like McConnell may prove a fool's errand. If the Democrats can remove the filibuster, then they could cement their victory by seating 2 Democratic senators from DC and two from PR, and maybe two more from Guam/Pacific Islands.
I think separation is a good idea between red and blue, but if it ever happens, it may take the use of force by blue state governments to keep their own red areas within their jurisdiction. Otherwise, blues are urban islands with no agriculture to support them. Well, maybe they can still import everything they need. To me though, the contiguous red states have proven in this election that they are hopeless boobs from which nothing can ever be expected. They voted overwhelmingly for a conman narcissist incompetent tyrant, just to uphold their wrong values of guns, anti-abortion, self-reliance and xenophobia. I hope I am wrong, and that they wake up. I pray that they do. But I myself would focus my energy and donations on the 6 swing states from now on.
The national popular vote, which will remain irrelevant for the foreseeable future, is now up to Biden +3.5%, gradually moving toward a 6 million vote margin. New York still refuses to count its remaining ballots, and CA counting is glacial. So his lead may end up bigger. I remember that the polls never had Biden up much higher than 50-51%. Trump's support was usually put at about 43%. But that always left a large undecided vote of about 4-5%, which remained until election day, and so most late deciders evidently went to Trump, or they were too ashamed to say that they were going to vote for him, but were wavering or didn't want to admit it.