How Democrats lost the working class

[David Horn]

(08-25-2017, 12:06 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

David Horn Wrote:The economic elite are fully invested in neoliberalism, and the cultural elite in social justice. The two are not completely compatible but they aren't antagonistic either, so the economic elites, caring solely about economic matters, have accepted the social justice model. Trump has pulled that scab off the body politic, and set the SJW types in direct opposition to the white nationalists. Note how little this impacts the economic model.

True.  But here's the rub.  Neoliberal elites owe their existence to the truth of the neoliberal model.  If the capitalist crisis hypothesis is valid, then the neoliberal model is not always and everywhere valid.  Occasionally (during modern secular cycle crises/4Ts) its not valid. Things happen that are not expected from a neoliberal paradigm, and elites feel unsure and panicky. Political elites capitalize on this opportunity to make fundamental change.  If their initial change is perceived as successful they gain a chance to enact more substantial change.

True, but insufficient I think.  The previous 4T saw both progressive and fascist options being exercised to "fix" the broken economies in Europe and the US.  We have both factions at play today, and the gloves have yet to come off.  

Mikebert Wrote:If the capitalist crisis and the concept of a 4T are both valid, then this opportunity will come in the next few years. It will manifest as a financial crisis and deep recession.  If this fails to happen, then one or both have to be discarded.  It will take something like 15 years for this issue to be resolved. If after 15 years, there is no change and we still are in a period much as we have been over the last decade, then both theories can be tossed.

It's not fully resolved which of the two contending models will prevail, so a crash could trigger the fascist backlash here we saw last cycle in Europe.  It's even possible that some form of balkanization creates a state of "two nations, one soil".  We already have an urban/rural divide to support it.  If that occurs, and some sort of uneasy truce supports this unstable structure, the inevitable collapse will be messy, to say the least. 

In either case, whether we resolve the politics or not the economic model will have to change.