09-12-2020, 12:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2020, 01:29 AM by Classic-Xer.)
(08-03-2020, 10:59 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote:Does the direction of the wind or the size of the crowd ever change in Left field?(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus. However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030. That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?
(08-03-2020, 10:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus. However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030. That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?
This time may be unique for having so many major challenges needing immediate attention: inequality, racism, authoritarianism, climate and a pandemic. Predicting when and how this all gets resolved is dicey at best.
David, so true, and that’s what makes this multi-layered crisis a mega-crisis. Not a meta-crisis. That will be a climate change that morphs into a full-blown global emergency. But I think that comes with the next saeculum, though we should address the slow-boil of climate change now, to some extent. I actually think the next administration could address all of the crises you mention in one fell swoop, but I don’t think the political will is there yet for an all-encompassing Green New Deal. But we will see.