Neil Howe In The News

[Arkarch]

(09-12-2020, 01:26 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(08-03-2020, 09:24 PM)RadianMay Wrote:

(08-03-2020, 07:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: History moves quickly in the final stage of a 4T. In early 1942 Americans had the great dread that as the Japanese seemed to be invincible in their conquests, and that it would not be long before Americans had to fight the Japanese in Australia. The Soviet Union was fighting for its very existence just west of Moscow. The Nazis seemed entrenched, possibly forever, along the "Atlantic Wall". By late 1944 Nazi Germany was obviously doomed, and most people recognized that "Japan, you're next" was no idle boast.

That is how wars go.

Politics? I predict that after Trump is defeated, America will turn to much-needed reforms at the least to humanize a capitalist order that has become at best a deceitful Vanity Fair and at worst threatens to become an aristocratic order in which birth is everything and talent is largely irrelevant.

I agree with your assessment that the latter part of a 4T seems to go faster than the first part. If S&H was right, we still have a decade to go, and this has already been a long year. Hopefully we manage to identify the root the problem and tackle it best we can. Climate change also cannot wait until the next 2T to be settled. I think we need institutions with real power to tackle this problem at its root, like carbon tax (corporate interests are way too strong right now to implement this), and a complete rethink of our energy and transport infrastructure.

What If S&H were off by a decade and this is just the beginning and there's 20 more years of crisis to go? Me, I'd start fast and quickly settle our obvious differences here and then slow down and take our time with China. I'm sorry for interrupting the Liberal discussion, feel free to continue expressing wishful thoughts with other wishful thinkers and do your best to avoid me and ignore me as much as possible.

I definitely noticed the mood / attitude change in the public during the mid-00's.  I would tend to move more toward 2008 as our "1929" event, but we may have already been shifting before that.  Some have argued even sooner.

I also continue to see this crisis as a Cold Internal War in a longer four saeculum cycle...  Glorious Revolution (Cold Internal); American Revolution (Cold External - a proxy battle between England/France); American Civil (Hot Internal); WW2 (Hot External); and now back to Cold Internal.

When Howe suggests 2030 - I think that is an outlier.  The last Crisis was 1929-1946 (a very late 1929 and a very early 1946) - so 16-17 years.  So I am more apt to put a 1T by 2025.  No matter who wins, the odds of a Presidential change in the next four years is high; (edit) and the players certainly by 2024 will not have the same temperament. I would keep those seatbelts tight!! , but this coming election may be the epic apex of the current Cold Internal Crisis.  If its moving fast, 1T is coming fast.

(just to add... first Gen-X 1961 turns 60 in 2021... by 2026 its retirement time) I am 57.