12-10-2016, 04:49 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-10-2016, 04:53 AM by Eric the Green.)
Lichtman among others like Michael Moore and Rob Reiner are predicting Trump will be impeached. I wouldn't think so, since the Republicans wouldn't care about such things as the law. And after impeachment, the Senate must convict him in order to be removed from office. But Lichtman points out that in their hearts of hearts, they prefer the straight down-the-line, predictable conservative Mike Pence. And many Republicans, though they supported Trump, criticized and even defected from him during the campaign. So maybe it will happen.
It would certainly be better for the Democratic candidate on my cosmic scoring system if Pence runs in 2020 instead of Trump. And the Republicans might forget about Trump's particular appeal. Trump is a winning candidate, regardless of what he does or says. And if he survives in office and runs, he might win no matter what he does in office. But Pence does not even have a positive score on my system now; only 8-9. He does not have the appeal on a gut and personality or leadership-quality level to win.
That would certainly open the door for the Democrats to win in 2020, despite the new moon indicator that favors the incumbent to win the popular vote that year. An administration that has its president removed from office is not in a good position to win re-election, as the election of 1976 showed; Nixon would have been removed from office if he had not resigned. And what if Pence pardons Trump too? Gerald Ford tried that, and lost. It would likely be difficult too for an administration that suffered an impeachment and removal of its president to get many keys turned in its favor in Lichtman's system. Even Bill Clinton, with all his advantages, could not swing it for Al Gore after a term of constant distraction including an impeachment trial.
It would certainly be better for the Democratic candidate on my cosmic scoring system if Pence runs in 2020 instead of Trump. And the Republicans might forget about Trump's particular appeal. Trump is a winning candidate, regardless of what he does or says. And if he survives in office and runs, he might win no matter what he does in office. But Pence does not even have a positive score on my system now; only 8-9. He does not have the appeal on a gut and personality or leadership-quality level to win.
That would certainly open the door for the Democrats to win in 2020, despite the new moon indicator that favors the incumbent to win the popular vote that year. An administration that has its president removed from office is not in a good position to win re-election, as the election of 1976 showed; Nixon would have been removed from office if he had not resigned. And what if Pence pardons Trump too? Gerald Ford tried that, and lost. It would likely be difficult too for an administration that suffered an impeachment and removal of its president to get many keys turned in its favor in Lichtman's system. Even Bill Clinton, with all his advantages, could not swing it for Al Gore after a term of constant distraction including an impeachment trial.