We have been in a crisis era since around 2000, based on the downturn in economic trends, increased political rivalry stemming from the 2000 election, and the "war on terror" triggered by 2001. A crisis era is not necessarily a 4T. For example, we entered a crisis era in 1765 with the Stamp Act Congress and foundation of the Sons of Liberty terrorist group. The 4T proper began eight years late with the Tea Party "direct action" which followed the imposition of the Tea Act necessitated by the Panic of 1772 in London. Another crisis era was entered in 1854 with the Kansas-Nebraska Act and the start of Bloody Kansas and the effort by the Supreme Court to douse of the fires of partisanship using gasoline in the Dred Scott decision. The crisis era turned 4T six years later with the formal secession of South Carolina in Dec. 1860 following the election of Abraham Lincoln the month before.
I suggest that the next crisis era may have begun as early as 1907 (this is when capital productivity fell (analogous period is 2002-2006). Alternate dates could be 1912 Bull Moose campaign (analogs would be 1992-Perot), 1919 (no analogs) or even 1929 (2008 crisis). In any case the 4T itself began in 1929, up 22 years after the start of the crisis era.
To generate a 4T requires three ingredients. First you need a crisis era, that is, the underlying issues that the coming 4T needs to (eventually) address, are becoming increasingly urgent. Such things are often associated with what Bob Butler calls a spiral of violence. Next you need the proper generational constellation. For me, all this boils down to a dominant generation* coming to power. Once you have both of these all you need is a triggering event, what S&H call the crisis trigger.
*A dominant generation is one that comes of age in one social moment turning and is in power during the next one.
I suggest that the next crisis era may have begun as early as 1907 (this is when capital productivity fell (analogous period is 2002-2006). Alternate dates could be 1912 Bull Moose campaign (analogs would be 1992-Perot), 1919 (no analogs) or even 1929 (2008 crisis). In any case the 4T itself began in 1929, up 22 years after the start of the crisis era.
To generate a 4T requires three ingredients. First you need a crisis era, that is, the underlying issues that the coming 4T needs to (eventually) address, are becoming increasingly urgent. Such things are often associated with what Bob Butler calls a spiral of violence. Next you need the proper generational constellation. For me, all this boils down to a dominant generation* coming to power. Once you have both of these all you need is a triggering event, what S&H call the crisis trigger.
*A dominant generation is one that comes of age in one social moment turning and is in power during the next one.
