Quinnipiac FLOP:
Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinn...aseID=2359
("FLOP" refers to the states polled)
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=2;;4&AZ=2;;3&AR=0;;6&CA=1;;7&CO=1;;4&CT=1;;4&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;4&GA=2;;4&HI=0;;7&ID=2;;4&IL=1;;4&IN=2;;4&IA=1;;3&KS=1;;4&KY=0;;3&LA=2;;6&MD=1;;9&MA=1;;4&MI=1;;4&MN=1;;4&MS=2;;3&MO=1;;3&MT=2;;6&NV=2;;3&NH=1;;3&NJ=1;;4&NM=1;;4&NY=1;;7&NC=2;;3&ND=0;;5&OH=4;;1&OK=2;;4&OR=1;;4&PA=1;;3&RI=0;;6&SC=2;;4&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;4&TX=2;;3&UT=4;;1&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;3&WA=1;;4&WV=2;;9&WI=1;;4&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;4&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
Of course, this Presidential election no longer looks like a true binary choice.
Quinnipiac FLOP (FLorida-Ohio-Pennsylvania):
Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%
![[Image: ??;4&WV=0;;6&WI=0;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=0;;4&AZ=2;3/??;3&AR=0;;6&CA=1;;6&CO=0;;5&CT=1;5/6;4&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;6/7;4&GA=2;7/6;4&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=1;12/6;4&IN=0;;5&IA=0;;5&KS=1;6/??;4&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=0;;6&MA=0;;1&MI=1;4/12;3&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=0;;3&NH=0;;5&NJ=0;;5&NM=1;8/14;4&NY=0;;6&NC=2;2/3;5&ND=0;;5&OH=1;2/8;3&OK=2;20/6;4&OR=0;;5&PA=1;3/9;3&RI=0;;6&SC=0;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=0;;4&UT=4;0/13;1&VT=0;;6&VA=1;3/9;4&WA=1;12/??;4&WV=0;;6&WI=0;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.
...Kansas is not a misprint. Zogby has Hillary Clinton up 43-37 over Donald Trump in a binary poll. Recent elections and polls have shown some rifting in the Kansas GOP. The incumbent Republican Governor faces horrid results in approval polls. It may be a question of time before the moderate wing of the Kansas GOP takes over the Democratic Party.
Kansas could be a poor cultural match for Donald Trump. The people are well educated, which could make them unfriendly to demagogues.
Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4
Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)
Third-Party strength.
Unless something changes, I'll use this plan
16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;5&AK=0;3;5&AZ=3;11;1&AR=0;6;5&CA=3;55;3&CO=0;9;5&CT=3;7;4&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=3;29;5&GA=3;16;4&HI=0;4;5&ID=0;4;5&IL=3;20;4&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=3;6;1&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;5&MA=0;11;5&MI=3;16;6&MN=0;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=0;4;5&NJ=0;14;5&NM=3;5;7&NY=0;29;5&NC=3;15;3&ND=0;3;5&OH=3;18;5&OK=3;7;4&OR=0;7;5&PA=3;20;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=0;38;5&UT=3;6;7&VT=0;3;5&VA=3;13;4&WA=3;12;1&WV=0;5;5&WI=3;10;1&WY=0;3;5&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;5)
Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4
Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinn...aseID=2359
("FLOP" refers to the states polled)
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
Of course, this Presidential election no longer looks like a true binary choice.
Quinnipiac FLOP (FLorida-Ohio-Pennsylvania):
Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%
White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.
...Kansas is not a misprint. Zogby has Hillary Clinton up 43-37 over Donald Trump in a binary poll. Recent elections and polls have shown some rifting in the Kansas GOP. The incumbent Republican Governor faces horrid results in approval polls. It may be a question of time before the moderate wing of the Kansas GOP takes over the Democratic Party.
Kansas could be a poor cultural match for Donald Trump. The people are well educated, which could make them unfriendly to demagogues.
Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4
Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)
Third-Party strength.
Unless something changes, I'll use this plan
16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear
Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.