08-10-2016, 06:57 AM
The rationale for my coloring scheme:
1. Anyone with more than 50% of the vote is going to win whether in a one-way or 10-way race.
2. A strong third-party or independent nominee lowers the level of a win. Thus if third-party nominees take 10% of the vote, 45% +1 becomes a plurality.
3. In binary races, winners are already approaching 50% if not already there. A lead of 47-41 means something. A lead of 45-37 doesn't mean as much. Some candidates just can't go beyond 45% in a state even if they get there early, which explains why Barack Obama could be up 44-42 in the Dakotas in 2008 in the summer and still lose. Obviously some states are poor matches for nominees.
4. National tracking polls are up to date. Although winning a Presidential election with fewer popular votes than one's opponents is unlikely (it is luck), we all know about 2000 and over-react to the chance of such.
5. The red-blue color scheme comes from a source that still uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans. I have orange and green for leads with less than 46% so that I can easily delete polls that show someone up 44-42 or even 44-38 early (44 is as much as the leader might get in some states in November, although the eventual leader might get a small lead with 45% or less early. If one does not end up at least close to 50% by the time of the election one loses a binary election. 44-42 Clinton in Mississippi could easily end up 56-44 for Trump. and 44-42 in Iowa for Trump could easily end up as 54-46 for Clinton. The reality of states may be more significant than the Presidential nominee in winning those states.
6. The states elect the President; the People do not. Although it is unlikely that someone will win the Presidency while getting less than a plurality of the popular vote, practically all voters remember 2000. The bigger the spread between candidates in the popular vote, the less likely it is that someone will win the Presidency with less than a plurality.
1. Anyone with more than 50% of the vote is going to win whether in a one-way or 10-way race.
2. A strong third-party or independent nominee lowers the level of a win. Thus if third-party nominees take 10% of the vote, 45% +1 becomes a plurality.
3. In binary races, winners are already approaching 50% if not already there. A lead of 47-41 means something. A lead of 45-37 doesn't mean as much. Some candidates just can't go beyond 45% in a state even if they get there early, which explains why Barack Obama could be up 44-42 in the Dakotas in 2008 in the summer and still lose. Obviously some states are poor matches for nominees.
4. National tracking polls are up to date. Although winning a Presidential election with fewer popular votes than one's opponents is unlikely (it is luck), we all know about 2000 and over-react to the chance of such.
5. The red-blue color scheme comes from a source that still uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans. I have orange and green for leads with less than 46% so that I can easily delete polls that show someone up 44-42 or even 44-38 early (44 is as much as the leader might get in some states in November, although the eventual leader might get a small lead with 45% or less early. If one does not end up at least close to 50% by the time of the election one loses a binary election. 44-42 Clinton in Mississippi could easily end up 56-44 for Trump. and 44-42 in Iowa for Trump could easily end up as 54-46 for Clinton. The reality of states may be more significant than the Presidential nominee in winning those states.
6. The states elect the President; the People do not. Although it is unlikely that someone will win the Presidency while getting less than a plurality of the popular vote, practically all voters remember 2000. The bigger the spread between candidates in the popular vote, the less likely it is that someone will win the Presidency with less than a plurality.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.