08-05-2016, 04:11 PM
Looks like Kinser has jumped the shark into Unskewed Polls territory (these were the folks in 2012 who were *sure* Mittens was ahead and had been all campaign and the polls were biased against him).
The Donald is in trouble. His poll position looks awful right now, but we are still in the choppy period around the conventions. The poll average two weeks after the last convention (i.e. a week from now) will tell where the general election will start. It should be fairly stable after that, barring unexpected events, until the debates, if they happen.
Right now, if nothing changes, it looks more or less like a repeat of 2012 where Clinton wins, but Republicans hold the Senate. However, I have faith in The Donald. I think when the dust settles it will be closer to the 2008 outcome, Clinton will win easily and Dems will just eke out a Senate majority.
I’m not into conspiracy theories, but the folks who say Trump has been in cahoots with Clinton from the start are looking less crazy. I still think they are certainly wrong, but I won’t think of them as loons anymore.
The Donald is in trouble. His poll position looks awful right now, but we are still in the choppy period around the conventions. The poll average two weeks after the last convention (i.e. a week from now) will tell where the general election will start. It should be fairly stable after that, barring unexpected events, until the debates, if they happen.
Right now, if nothing changes, it looks more or less like a repeat of 2012 where Clinton wins, but Republicans hold the Senate. However, I have faith in The Donald. I think when the dust settles it will be closer to the 2008 outcome, Clinton will win easily and Dems will just eke out a Senate majority.
I’m not into conspiracy theories, but the folks who say Trump has been in cahoots with Clinton from the start are looking less crazy. I still think they are certainly wrong, but I won’t think of them as loons anymore.