09-18-2016, 07:24 AM
The initial article is wrong. All the poll aggregators I follow show tightening. So do RealCleear politics and Huffpost. The aggregators I follow have been at this for a while, some as long as long 12 years. Their base models have been correct in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014. There is no reason to believe that somehow they are going to be wrong now.
The first article sounds a like like the certainty that the "Blogging Caesar" had that the GOP would retain Congress in 2006 (despite the results of his own empirical analysis) or that Brian Rush had than the Dems would retain the House in 2010 despite the empirical analysis by the poll aggregators. As Nate Silver says, its too early to panic now, but if the polls look like this in a week then Dems should start panicking.
So far it is entirely possible that Donald Trump will once again seize defeat from the jaws of victory by opening his mouth. Overall Clinton has been ahead and she is still likely to win. If the margin of victory is small I'd rather see a Trump victory than a Clinton one. I believe Republicans have the power to destroy a Democratic president and her party if they continue to hold their current level of political power. I do not belief that Democrats have the reverse ability, not matter how much power they may hold. That is the terrain is biased in favor of conservatives and it has always been this way.
The first article sounds a like like the certainty that the "Blogging Caesar" had that the GOP would retain Congress in 2006 (despite the results of his own empirical analysis) or that Brian Rush had than the Dems would retain the House in 2010 despite the empirical analysis by the poll aggregators. As Nate Silver says, its too early to panic now, but if the polls look like this in a week then Dems should start panicking.
So far it is entirely possible that Donald Trump will once again seize defeat from the jaws of victory by opening his mouth. Overall Clinton has been ahead and she is still likely to win. If the margin of victory is small I'd rather see a Trump victory than a Clinton one. I believe Republicans have the power to destroy a Democratic president and her party if they continue to hold their current level of political power. I do not belief that Democrats have the reverse ability, not matter how much power they may hold. That is the terrain is biased in favor of conservatives and it has always been this way.
