The Fourth Turning Halftime Update

[sbarrera]

(10-22-2018, 12:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-22-2018, 07:33 AM)sbarrera Wrote: Thanks for joining WinterStorm, and for the reply.

To address some of your points-
1. We are moving into the post-paper age. I agree that we have reduced the need for and use of paper, but I'm not sure we're post-paper. I still use cash, still print things out, even fax sometimes. I will say that in the workplace paper use is out, but part of that is because there are now "clean desk" policies that discourage ever making a printout if it can be avoided.

2. Fossil fuels will continue to slowly decline. Sorry, but this is just not the case. Global fossil fuel consumption keeps rising with the rising population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

3. Autonomous cars will be the wave of the future. The far future, IMO. We will not achieve Level 5 automation by the start of the next saeculum.

4.The digital revolution. I liked your points about Agile, which has definitely been transformative. Also agree that the tech giants are the new Ford/GM. The ones that grew out of the "dot com" era to become the dominators today are the winners of the Millennial saeculum. And we are still figuring out just how much power they have and how they will shape the new saeculum which is only a decade away.

(Well I have to go push bits at the office now so I will have to reply more later).

I agree with Winterstorm's points. We do live in a post-industrial, digital age, and that is shaping the future. A lot of what you mentioned, Winterstorm, is not limited to the dictates of technology, however. It also reflects the hope that greater awareness and optimism of human needs and desires, helped along by a high-tech economy, will be unstoppable in the long run. That certainly includes the awareness of the ecological effects of the industrial age, and the need to gear our new technology toward protecting our biosphere. So I disagree with Barrera that fossil fuels are not on the way out; they are.

I think a big difference between us, Eric, is that you see things the way they ought to be, and I see things the way they are (or try to anyway). The evidence is that fossil fuels are here to stay for a long while. I know you very much want a world of renewable energy, but it is just not as economically feasible and technological development is not as fast as it might seem to be based on fads/hype in the media.