The Fourth Turning Halftime Update

[WinterStorm]

(10-22-2018, 07:00 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: I agree with everything except for cashless society.  Too many problems there.  The first is privacy, next is it doesn't play nice with power outages. Finally, there are software fuckups that happen.  I blame the bank's use of contractors for this. That's oursourcing that happens. I experience schadenfreude every time any and all outsourced projects crash and burn like that.

The problems are easily resolvable. Generally, when products are developed, you can only pick two between speed, quality, and inexpensive. So many people ignore quality in favor of speed and cheapness. This can be remedied simply by have regulations prevent poor software design. As far as outages, that is a legit point. However, we have already been on this road for about a couple of decades. Again, I don't think cash will totally disappear. Rather, it will slowly decline either linearly or looking like some sort of long tail.

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1. I think only 10 year olds who are trustfund babies can afford those cars.
2. I don't think very many proles can afford those cars.
3. Home generators make lots of smog, so no thanks.
4. Flying cars?  Well, here in Oklahoma we have wild weather. Said cars would have to work with thunderstorms which have high winds and hail.  Would the cars still work after their apparati get hail dings? What happens if they get struck by lightning? Best of all are our howling blizzards. How would flying cars work in those? Blizzards cause the airports to cancel all of the flights. I have an idea for a prototype though.
First, we mandate that all private planes be self flying. It's best after all to use fat cats as our guinea pigs. After a sufficiently low death rate from plane crashes, then the software could then be migrated to cars. Next, only cars for fat cats would be outfitted. The reason for doing it this way is because only fat cats have enough money to afford prototypes and the private planes. There is absolutely no reason to spend money subsidizing test vehicles for proles who can't afford them. Private planes are just perfect because those make a perfect starting point since they're also already around. Just add software and apparatti and off ya go! I agree we can get to safe flying cars, though I'm sure we'll have some fat cats taking some dirt naps.
I say that's  a win win, IMHO.  

Tesla?  Oh yeah,  I sorta wonder how long folks will stuffing money into it.   Those financials look awful, man.

Even if Tesla ends up doing bad, the revolution has already occurred. Every major car manufacturer is slowly adding EVs to their lineup and the number of charging stations is increasing.

As for affordability, it will be much harder for a Crisis society to be able to afford it anyway. The average man in 1936 was a long way from being to afford a Levittown style house, but the economic explosion after the Crisis made it possible. Only the rich will afford it at first, but it will filter down to the masses in about a decade or two because most people drive cars that are less than 20 years old. Also, if you already have a car, then someone (Maybe it will be me. Who knows?) will start a service to add automation to existing cars. In 2025, these cars will be only for the Cadillac class. By the 2040s, it will have filtered down to the masses. As far as flying cars, totally agreed. Having humans pilot it will cause too many 9/11 style crashes.

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On Agile.  So when is it going to put secure programming and secure hardware in the process?  Given the number of security screw ups, it ain't part of the plan anywhere. Secure programming shouldn't be a nothought or afterthought like it is now.

Yup. It is my experience that you simply make it a compliance issue for software. Compliance always gets pushed to the top of the list as the most urgent issue whenever it is discovered that your software is not in compliance. All other development will be put on hold until the issue is resolved.

It's not like this stuff is really hard. The vast majority of incidents happen because of things as simple as leaving the front door unlocked. Don't use Password1234. Lock your screen when you are away from the terminal. Don't click on that weird looking link in that suspicious email. Don't store personal data (usernames, passwords, SSNs, etc.) in plain text files without encryption. Once you have the basics of cybersecurity covered, then it requires a lot more effort (such as the backing of a large and powerful organization) in order to conduct cyber attacks and cyber breaches.

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Germany already does this.  Corporate America is too fucking cheap to have apprenticeships and the US government shovels way to much money on the defense offense budget.  There's also a problem with higher education. It's just another racket and the tuition is too damn high.  I bet nobody gets the nice $4.00/credit hour I had anymore.

Tuition's too damn high!






In some places the rent is too damn high also.  However, the rent's not too damn high in Oklahoma.

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Pfffftttt.  Why do folks even use Outlook, Word, and excel when there's Openoffice?

Simply because it's the corporate standard and because there is already too much integration with Microsoft products anyway. A lot of organizations don't have the time, money, or personnel needed to make changes. So it gets put on the backlog, or discarded. It would probably require a political rather than economic change for OpenOffice to become standard.

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I shall have nothing to do with Google because Google is an evil company that sends data to the deep state!  There's nothing that tastes as good as freshly churned butter.   The stuff at the supermarket is gorp.

There's no place like home.
127.0.0.1  google.com

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Smart homes are for sheeple , aka NPC's.



I suppose there those who don't have a hacker's outlook.
Smartspeakers.  eavesdrop on those. I bet the alphabet agencies do that as well. If there's one in the bedroom, PORN city.
I'd love to hack lightbulbs.   I'd make them work like Christmas lights by making them turn off and on a bunch of times.
Washing machine.  I'd like to keep it in the start cycle, add soap, and let it overflow.  Operation bubble bath, man.
Window blinds, up and down all around.
Water faucet.  Turn 'em on and run up a huge water bill for the victim.
IOT.  It's old news, but spam engines and DDOS  doers.

So , if hacked life won't be easier or more predictable.  Imagine coming home to the stuff mentioned above.

Roomba = cat chaser.
Smart mirrors = more PORN
Alexa/Cortana = hack in and order dildos and pocket pussies from Amazon.

This will become an issue for the next saeculum. However, I can simply do it all myself and avoid those concerns, and I suspect many will too. It will come to a point at which all IoT devices will be regulated. They will have to match some security standard for you be able to sell it in the marketplace because any cyber weakeness will by the end of this 4T and the next 1T will be seen as a national security issue, something that is already becoming a trend with the federal government. We still have many more years to go. Although I don't want to experience it, there is still a very high risk of a damaging cyberwar. If there is real cyberwar (which is likely to coincide with traditional war), then we will build a robust cybersecurity infrastructure that will allow most people to sleep at night. Too many people are still computing like it's the 1990s, with no thought to cybersecurity. By the 2030s, I suspect that Americans will have been scared into practicing good cybersecurity.