Will a nationalist/cosmopolitan divide be the political axis of the coming saeculum?

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-18-2020, 01:29 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Rags made an interesting comment.  What if this 4T turns out to be a dud?

What it is starting to look like to me in terms of turnings:

1.  Boom Awakening.

2.  Culture Wars 3T

3.  Dud Crisis.

4.  Weak 1T,  characterized by a peace of exhaustion.  This may seem almost a blank turning.

I am seeing a blank crisis. Nukes stop international crisis wars. People are looking to the legislature for change, not a revolution or civil war. Again, no crisis war to transform internally. A split idealistic generation makes change impossible. The see saw blocked consensus as whenever the country started to drive in one direction, the other side was put in power to keep the more extreme agendas of both the radical left and right in check.

The upcoming period is something else. The old idealists are aging out of power. The period of split idealists will end as the boomers age out of power. I don’t believe you can leave problems unsolved indefinitely. The refusal to look at real problems which has been a common theme during the unraveling and dead crisis looks like it is coming to an end. Between the ‘OK boomer’ meme, two bad conservative presidents lying to the people and impeachment, the old conservative memes seem discredited. If we went from a progressive time from FDR through LBJ, and a conservative time from Nixon through Trump, I wouldn’t be shocked by the beginnings of a new progressive time coming.

This leaves me most confused about the turning immediately approaching. Will it be transformative, changing the culture, making changes, resembling a weak crises during the Industrial Age or the 60s awakening? Will the generations line up 1T, making us tempted to step on conservative thought patterns of the previous crisis, much as McCarthy tried to step on Communism in the last 1T, or McCarthy got stepped on in turn. Will it be a time of building of new infrastructure, a common trend of first turnings, with renewable energy and bridges being a big area of focus.

The focus on 1T stepping on conservative ideas while building infrastructure is possible.

If it is to be a new progressive time, will it have the transformational feel of the 1960s awakening? Will the OK boomer meme overflow into voting a lot of the progressive agenda in?

I do not see what is coming as being weak and reflecting exhaustion. Not entirely.

Thus I see perhaps a progressive getting elected in 2020, a weak crisis resulting, and shifting to something like a high. I’m not quite sure.