12-28-2019, 02:42 AM
Obviously how the Crisis ends will matter greatly. We could see the Crisis ending with any result from extinction of Humanity in a nuclear holocaust to a relatively bloodless end in which political reforms bring sudden, decisive, and largely-benign change. In between are many gradations of disaster and triumph.
Obviously the extinction of humanity puts an end to history as we know it, and a near-extinction could result in a steady transition to a new and perhaps protracted Dark Age as one after another metaphoric light of the old civilization dies out without succession. War? Who will be th winner and who will be the loser -- and even victory could be so tainted with mass destruction of human and physical capital and destruction of institutions that victory could sting as badly as some catastrophic defeats (think of Poland at the end of WWII).
On a national scale...
If this Crisis ends with the establishment of a vile change in the political order (let us say an ideology that transforms most Americans into serfs while suppressing freedom of inquiry and innovation on behalf of elites of ownership and administration (the 3T intensified and solidified), then we could have a nasty order indeed -- one that could implode in a Bolshevik-style revolution that will establish the nature of the Crisis of 2100. Should American political leadership determine that global warming is to be treated as a necessary price of economic growth, then global warming could lead to wars and persecutions that could make those of the Crisis of 1940 look gentle by comparison. But I get ahead of myself by discussing events circa 2100 when I cannot be absolutely certain that Humanity, let alone civilization and high technology (and if technology is rendered unusable we might be turning things other than swords into plowshares -- like slices of motor vehicles) that people if lucky attach to draft animals so that people can keep themselves fed -- barely, if they are lucky.
The generational theory can inform us of some trends. The right-wing political trend that began with the Tea Party (and perhaps before that Newt Gingrich's "Contract for America" will either consolidate itself with the imposition of a dictatorial regime that entrenches power that elevates a plutocratic elite and debases everyone else (which Classic X'er stands for without quite recognizing such)... or will dissipate as the American electorate becomes much less sympathetic to current elites of ownership and management. About 1.5% of the electorate, predominantly over 55, leaves the electorate every year due to death and debility while younger adults join the electorate. Those young adults are now largely of the Millennial Generation. If there is a generation of voters following the Millennial generation, then its definition in birth-year cohorts is not yet set. So far young adults born in 2000, 2001, and 2002 (the 2020 Presidential election will include all but a few of the first adults voting whose birth-years do not begin with a "1") seem to be echoes of the Millennial Generation in their political values.
Note well the pattern: voters over 55 are (whether Silent, Boom, or very early-wave X) about 5% more Republican than Democratic -- and the voters under 40 are about 20% more Democratic than Republican. 1.5% of the electorate going more D by about 25% each year means that even with ordinary successes in partisan results based on the composition of the electorate -- Democrats get a big enough edge to win back Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin even without the perception that Donald Trump is a complete disaster. OK, Florida keeps getting an influx of R-leaning voters from other states as they retire there -- sure. That means that Trump loses Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina instead.
I expect Millennial participation in the election to get more marked for another reason: that Millennial adults who will be approaching 40 are at the age when a generation takes increasing numbers of high elected positions in public office. Many will better fit patterns of thought of Millennial voters who are much more secular and egalitarian than their seniors. These types will get the Millennial vote out as it has never been before, and almost entirely to the detriment of the Hard Right.
I have a sincere hope that we solve our political debates with ballots -- and not with bullets, let alone bombs. Don't you?
Obviously the extinction of humanity puts an end to history as we know it, and a near-extinction could result in a steady transition to a new and perhaps protracted Dark Age as one after another metaphoric light of the old civilization dies out without succession. War? Who will be th winner and who will be the loser -- and even victory could be so tainted with mass destruction of human and physical capital and destruction of institutions that victory could sting as badly as some catastrophic defeats (think of Poland at the end of WWII).
On a national scale...
If this Crisis ends with the establishment of a vile change in the political order (let us say an ideology that transforms most Americans into serfs while suppressing freedom of inquiry and innovation on behalf of elites of ownership and administration (the 3T intensified and solidified), then we could have a nasty order indeed -- one that could implode in a Bolshevik-style revolution that will establish the nature of the Crisis of 2100. Should American political leadership determine that global warming is to be treated as a necessary price of economic growth, then global warming could lead to wars and persecutions that could make those of the Crisis of 1940 look gentle by comparison. But I get ahead of myself by discussing events circa 2100 when I cannot be absolutely certain that Humanity, let alone civilization and high technology (and if technology is rendered unusable we might be turning things other than swords into plowshares -- like slices of motor vehicles) that people if lucky attach to draft animals so that people can keep themselves fed -- barely, if they are lucky.
The generational theory can inform us of some trends. The right-wing political trend that began with the Tea Party (and perhaps before that Newt Gingrich's "Contract for America" will either consolidate itself with the imposition of a dictatorial regime that entrenches power that elevates a plutocratic elite and debases everyone else (which Classic X'er stands for without quite recognizing such)... or will dissipate as the American electorate becomes much less sympathetic to current elites of ownership and management. About 1.5% of the electorate, predominantly over 55, leaves the electorate every year due to death and debility while younger adults join the electorate. Those young adults are now largely of the Millennial Generation. If there is a generation of voters following the Millennial generation, then its definition in birth-year cohorts is not yet set. So far young adults born in 2000, 2001, and 2002 (the 2020 Presidential election will include all but a few of the first adults voting whose birth-years do not begin with a "1") seem to be echoes of the Millennial Generation in their political values.
Note well the pattern: voters over 55 are (whether Silent, Boom, or very early-wave X) about 5% more Republican than Democratic -- and the voters under 40 are about 20% more Democratic than Republican. 1.5% of the electorate going more D by about 25% each year means that even with ordinary successes in partisan results based on the composition of the electorate -- Democrats get a big enough edge to win back Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin even without the perception that Donald Trump is a complete disaster. OK, Florida keeps getting an influx of R-leaning voters from other states as they retire there -- sure. That means that Trump loses Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina instead.
I expect Millennial participation in the election to get more marked for another reason: that Millennial adults who will be approaching 40 are at the age when a generation takes increasing numbers of high elected positions in public office. Many will better fit patterns of thought of Millennial voters who are much more secular and egalitarian than their seniors. These types will get the Millennial vote out as it has never been before, and almost entirely to the detriment of the Hard Right.
I have a sincere hope that we solve our political debates with ballots -- and not with bullets, let alone bombs. Don't you?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.