06-02-2020, 08:38 PM
(06-02-2020, 03:22 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(06-02-2020, 02:24 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:(06-02-2020, 01:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(06-02-2020, 12:10 PM)Isoko Wrote: The crisis though is not over...it is only just beginning...
The boomers are aging out. People keep trying to extend the crisis beyond the time when boomers are in the prophet-nomad-civic configuration, but I am willing to bet that when the bug is beat, people will be ready to lock down the solution, shut down the old values, and get materialistic again. In other words, they will switch to the high attitude.
In terms of the boomers being in the leadership position, we are towards the end.
This is impossible. You can't magically go from an unraveling culture to a high culture with almost no transition.
If we're near the end, the only way we can get there soon is with a massive explosion of blinding violence and chaos. The U.S. doesn't get out of this crisis without a civil or revolutionary war. The coronavirus is nothing.
Why not? It has always been so before. After Yorktown, Appomattox Court House and the World War II surrenders there were wind downs to the crisis as the never again documents were written, then we went into the high configuration. Poof. Magic.
With nukes being prominent, there are fewer trigger events. Nothing is apt to set us off again. While the US didn’t go though a classic crisis war, they thoroughly stressed and exhausted both the regulars and reserves in Bush 43’s wars. There is a reluctance to put boots on the ground again, a perception that violence does not solve problems but makes them worse. This will do nicely as the equivalent of a crisis war in making a repeat unlikely.
I know some are obsessed by violence. To them, the S&H theory is an excuse for their fantasies. I am less blinded by an assumption that the Industrial Age and the Information Age are identical. I care about turnings, ages and civilizations all, and find the S&H crowd’s obsession with turnings limiting. The basic pattern of ages has shifted. You cannot assume that what was true in one age will hold true in the next. You need to observe and verify patterns continuing and watch for the shifts which ought to be expected.
War was cost effective for much of the Industrial Age. A conflict would start as soon as the economy was in good shape again, and someone greedy thought they had an advantage. Nukes made it much less so, and changed a lot of things. Some are obsessed with violence, and decline to see the change.
It doesn't have to be a war. It does have to be a crisis, on the level of world war II plus the Great Depression, or the Civil War, or the Revolutionary War. The events of the past few years have not in any way remotely been sufficient as a crisis. A crisis has to be so bad that the future of the nation is in question, in order to take an unraveled society and fuse it back together into an integrated whole again.
You are theorizing that the general Strauss and Howe theory no longer holds true, and that we won't have Crisis turnings any more, we'll just slide right on through from unravelings to highs. There's no real reason to believe this, but maybe you're right.
But if the Strauss and Howe theory holds true and the pattern of the last centuries continues, things are going to get much, much, worse before they get any better.