We finally have polls of states that President Trump won in 2016 (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina). Republicans will have a tough time winning them in a free and fair election (which itself is the Big Question of 2020 -- will we have a free and fair election in 2020?).
Tellingly, the incumbent Republican Governor of Michigan is very unpopular, so it is highly unlikely that President Trump will get help from the Governor of Michigan (if that played a role in 2016).
The difference between favorability and approval for the President is only 1%, so we effectively have a category-straddler that we need concern ourselves little with.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Probably our best approximation until about March.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29*;5&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=1;15*;5&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=0;13;2&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan advantage -- red for Democrats and blue for Republicans as was the norm going into the 1980s and as in the source for my map.
Tellingly, the incumbent Republican Governor of Michigan is very unpopular, so it is highly unlikely that President Trump will get help from the Governor of Michigan (if that played a role in 2016).
The difference between favorability and approval for the President is only 1%, so we effectively have a category-straddler that we need concern ourselves little with.
Favorability:
Probably our best approximation until about March.
Approval:
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan advantage -- red for Democrats and blue for Republicans as was the norm going into the 1980s and as in the source for my map.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.