05-12-2017, 09:11 PM
Just when I am ready to ditch favorability polls, one comes out about a State that rarely gets polled.
Oklahoma. This is a favorability poll, and not as approval poll. 57.4-35.5. Decimals -- yuck!
http://soonerpoll.com/after-first-100-da...ike-trump/
Oklahoma is probably the difference between 530 and 537 electoral votes for the Democrat in 2020.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=2;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;9&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=2;18;4&OK=2;7;9&OR=0;7;4&PA=4;20;1&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=2;6*;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=1;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=1;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=2;3;7&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;9&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;5&ND=0;3;7&OH=1;18;7&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=1;20;7&RI=0;4;1&SC=1;9;3&SD=0;3;2&TN=2;11;7&TX=1;38;5&UT=1;6;3&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;7&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
Oklahoma. This is a favorability poll, and not as approval poll. 57.4-35.5. Decimals -- yuck!
http://soonerpoll.com/after-first-100-da...ike-trump/
Oklahoma is probably the difference between 530 and 537 electoral votes for the Democrat in 2020.
Favorability:
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states -- but not likely for any states from hereon added to the map. Favorability is 'hope'; approval is 'achievement'. President Trump has quickly developed a clear record of achievements and failures.
Approval:
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.