Trump’s standing takes a hit, even in places he won in ’16
There are two ways to view our new NBC/WSJ “Trump Counties” poll — measuring the counties that fueled Donald Trump’s 2016 win — we initially unveiled on Sunday.
Way #1: President Trump’s approval rating in these counties stands at 50%, which is higher than his 40% overall job rating from our June NBC/WSJ poll, or the 36% that WaPo/ABC had yesterday.
Way #2: His approval rating in these counties is down from his winning percentage in these areas in November 2016. In the Trump "Surge Counties" — think places like Carbon, Pa., which Trump won, 65%-31% (versus Mitt Romney's 53%-45% margin) — 56% of residents approve of the president's job performance. But in 2016, Trump won these “Surge Counties” by a combined 65%-29%. And in the "Flip Counties" — think places like Luzerne, Pa., which Obama carried 52%-47%, but which Trump won, 58%-39% — Trump's job rating stands at just 44%. Trump won these “Flip Counties” by a combined 51%-43% margin a year ago. Bottom line: Even in the places that he won in 2016, he’s taken a hit when it comes to his approval rating.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-re...16-n783611
![[Image: nbc_news-wall_street_journal_-trump_coun...00-480.png]](https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2017_28/2073161/nbc_news-wall_street_journal_-trump_counties-_all_other_counties_flip_only_surge_only_chartbuilder_1_3838684d6e92a73c7c9a3ab70eb97fb9.nbcnews-ux-600-480.png)
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NBC News promises more detail this week, which could include maps of states for which I have obsolete data (Minnesota, the disapproval rating from before the national polls went into the gold or gilt toilet), and states for which I have no polls (Georgia, Maine, Missouri, and Ohio)
My comment: In other words, this suggests that the 2020 Presidential election will look much more like those of 2012 or even 2008, either of which will be a disaster for elected Republicans -- and not only for the President. The President will need to do very well in rural Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, or Missouri just to offset the metropolitan votes of Atlanta, Gary, Indianapolis, South Bend, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
There are two ways to view our new NBC/WSJ “Trump Counties” poll — measuring the counties that fueled Donald Trump’s 2016 win — we initially unveiled on Sunday.
Way #1: President Trump’s approval rating in these counties stands at 50%, which is higher than his 40% overall job rating from our June NBC/WSJ poll, or the 36% that WaPo/ABC had yesterday.
Way #2: His approval rating in these counties is down from his winning percentage in these areas in November 2016. In the Trump "Surge Counties" — think places like Carbon, Pa., which Trump won, 65%-31% (versus Mitt Romney's 53%-45% margin) — 56% of residents approve of the president's job performance. But in 2016, Trump won these “Surge Counties” by a combined 65%-29%. And in the "Flip Counties" — think places like Luzerne, Pa., which Obama carried 52%-47%, but which Trump won, 58%-39% — Trump's job rating stands at just 44%. Trump won these “Flip Counties” by a combined 51%-43% margin a year ago. Bottom line: Even in the places that he won in 2016, he’s taken a hit when it comes to his approval rating.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-re...16-n783611
.....................................................
NBC News promises more detail this week, which could include maps of states for which I have obsolete data (Minnesota, the disapproval rating from before the national polls went into the gold or gilt toilet), and states for which I have no polls (Georgia, Maine, Missouri, and Ohio)
My comment: In other words, this suggests that the 2020 Presidential election will look much more like those of 2012 or even 2008, either of which will be a disaster for elected Republicans -- and not only for the President. The President will need to do very well in rural Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, or Missouri just to offset the metropolitan votes of Atlanta, Gary, Indianapolis, South Bend, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, Kansas City, and St. Louis.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.