Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

Looking at the NBC poll this far ahead, tells me that unless the economy turns sour, the Democrats are still going to need to nominate a skillful candidate (which is indicated by their horoscope score quite well). Trump has still only dropped less than 10 points in the places he won. He could easily get those back just on the strength of his ability to entertain, speak and appeal to their values and prejudices.

So, nominating Cory Booker or Elizabeth Warren will probably not be enough to beat Trump in 2020, if Trump is the nominee again. Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand would lose badly.

Some others could be put into the "maybe" column, assuming Trump has a lower approval rating in 2020 than he has now: Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders (both probably too old), Andrew Cuomo, Chris Murphy, Janet Napolitano, Tulsi Gabbard, Roy Cooper, Chuck Schumer, and some others that seem unlikely candidates.

If the Democrats want a good shot at winning, they will need to nominate a skillful candidate like Terry McAuliffe, or Mitch Landrieu if he runs. Sherrod Brown and Tom Vilsack might be good enough. Gavin Newsom, if he ran, might win, but would likely lose in 2024.

See the candidate scores here under who scored what:
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html