08-10-2017, 07:00 AM
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia. Three alleged swing states (but I suspect that Virginia is now one of the solidest Democratic states).
UNH Poll: New Hampshire
Trump approval: 34-55 (-21)
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/...080917.pdf
Polls swing wildly in New Hampshire, but even if this negates a hard-to-believe poll of New Hampshire it does not change the a apperance of the state as big trouble for the President in 2020.
....................
North Carolina, PPP. Not commissioned by any outside group.
Approval/disapproval, President Trump: 44-50
"Do you think that Donald Trump is really making America great again?" Yes -- 37% No -- 52%
Prefer Obama over Trump -- Obama 49, Trump 45
Approval, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) 48-33
Senator Richard Burr ® 34-43 (re-elected 2016, up for re-election in 2022)
Senator Thom Tillis ® 28-45 (up for re-election in 2020)
Generic ballot for US Congress... Democrat 46%, Republican 40%
Prefer the current ACA or something Trump wants? ACA 46%, GOP plan 33%, not sure 21%
Excited about voting in the 2018 election?
Very excited 51%
Somewhat 23%
Not at all 23%
The sample admits to voting 46-44, Trump over Clinton. North Carolina was close -- but not that close. Could it be that people who voted for President Trump often want to forget that they did so? I saw a similar phenomenon with Dubya after 2006 as his approval ratings went into the septic tank.
(amazing since there will be no Presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate election in 2018 in North Carolina).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2..._80917.pdf
North Carolina looks about R+6, so draw your own conclusions. I think that Republicans will have a hard time holding onto the House.
.........................
Virginia: Quinnipiac, Aug 3-8, 1082 RV
Approve 36
Disapprove 61
They also have Northam over Gillespie 44/38 for Governor, with 4% for the Libertarian candidate.
Senator approvals:
Kaine 54/38
Warner 59/30
Is Virginia swinging D? Or is it simply one of the states least amenable to populist appeals? Probably the only state that voted against Bill Clinton twice but went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;;7&AK=2;;4&AZ=1;;4&AR=2;;5&CA=1;;9&CO=1;;5&CT=1;;9&DE=1;;7&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;4&GA=1;;4&HI=1;;9&ID=2;;7&IL=1;;7&IN=1;;4&IA=1;;5&KS=2;;7&KY=2;;7&LA=2;;7&MD=1;;9&MA=1;;9&MI=1;;5&MN=1;;7&MS=2;;5&MO=2;;5&MT=2;;9&NV=1;;5&NH=1;;9&NJ=1;;7&NM=1;;7&NY=1;;9&NC=1;;3&ND=2;;9&OH=1;;4&OK=2;;7&OR=1;;7&PA=1;;7&RI=1;;9&SC=2;;5&SD=2;;9&TN=2;;7&TX=1;;5&UT=2;;7&VT=1;;9&VA=1;;7&WA=1;;7&WV=2;;7&WI=1;;5&WY=2;;9&ME=1;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=2;;7&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;39;9&AK=4;48;1&AZ=1;53;3&AR=2;47;2&CA=1;71;9&CO=1;57;5&CT=1;59;5&DE=1;56;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;51;3&GA=1;50;3&HI=1;59;5&ID=2;42;5&IL=1;58;5&IN=4;48;1&IA=1;52;2&KS=2;42;5&KY=2;43;5&LA=2;43;5&MD=1;64;7&MA=1;66;7&MI=1;61;7&MN=1;57;4&MS=2;46;2&MO=2;46;2&MT=2;41;5&NV=1;53;3&NH=1;55;5&NJ=1;58;5&NM=1;56;5&NY=1;62;7&NC=1;50;3&ND=2;36;9&OH=4;48;1&OK=2;39;9&OR=1;56;5&PA=1;62;7&RI=1;55;5&SC=2;44;2&SD=2;43;5&TN=2;42;5&TX=1;51;3&UT=1;50;2&VT=1;71;9&VA=1;61;7&WA=1;59;5&WV=2;36;9&WI=1;51;3&WY=2;36;9&ME=1;55;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=2;43;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+
UNH Poll: New Hampshire
Trump approval: 34-55 (-21)
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/...080917.pdf
Polls swing wildly in New Hampshire, but even if this negates a hard-to-believe poll of New Hampshire it does not change the a apperance of the state as big trouble for the President in 2020.
....................
North Carolina, PPP. Not commissioned by any outside group.
Approval/disapproval, President Trump: 44-50
"Do you think that Donald Trump is really making America great again?" Yes -- 37% No -- 52%
Prefer Obama over Trump -- Obama 49, Trump 45
Approval, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) 48-33
Senator Richard Burr ® 34-43 (re-elected 2016, up for re-election in 2022)
Senator Thom Tillis ® 28-45 (up for re-election in 2020)
Generic ballot for US Congress... Democrat 46%, Republican 40%
Prefer the current ACA or something Trump wants? ACA 46%, GOP plan 33%, not sure 21%
Excited about voting in the 2018 election?
Very excited 51%
Somewhat 23%
Not at all 23%
The sample admits to voting 46-44, Trump over Clinton. North Carolina was close -- but not that close. Could it be that people who voted for President Trump often want to forget that they did so? I saw a similar phenomenon with Dubya after 2006 as his approval ratings went into the septic tank.
(amazing since there will be no Presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate election in 2018 in North Carolina).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2..._80917.pdf
North Carolina looks about R+6, so draw your own conclusions. I think that Republicans will have a hard time holding onto the House.
.........................
Virginia: Quinnipiac, Aug 3-8, 1082 RV
Approve 36
Disapprove 61
They also have Northam over Gillespie 44/38 for Governor, with 4% for the Libertarian candidate.
Senator approvals:
Kaine 54/38
Warner 59/30
Is Virginia swinging D? Or is it simply one of the states least amenable to populist appeals? Probably the only state that voted against Bill Clinton twice but went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:
navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.