Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Mostly posted elsewhere (see the report on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.


Kentucky, PPP: 60-36

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/...18-percent

But approval of Senator McConnell is at 18%. Disapproval at 74%. Senator Rand Paul: 37-47.

 http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/...esults.pdf

The disparity in approval ratings between the President and the two Senators  is without obvious explanation.  The Senators take the hit for the Trump proposal to return to profiteer-first medicine in one of the poorest states, but the President is somehow exempt from political blow-back? Most of the other questions are related to medical coverage, and they generally go against the GOP agenda.

President Trump must have a full Teflon coverage in Kentucky. McConnell could lose a Senate seat in Kentucky in 2020 while President Trump wins this state decisively. Or so it looks now, If I were a Kentucky Republican, I would prefer the inverse

Arizona (the Arizona Republic, one of the most conservative newspapers in America):


About the Survey

 

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

 

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

 

Q.        President Donald Trump

 

27.5%  Strongly Approve

14.3%  Somewhat Approve

6.5%    Somewhat Disapprove

48.3%  Strongly Disapprove

3.5%    Don’t Know, Refused

(Decimals: that's 42-54  for me as I fill to the next number for Trump and clip for Democrats)


 

Q.        As you may be aware, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was found guilty of criminal contempt of court for defying a Judge’s order to halt detention based solely on suspicion of a person’s immigration status.  There has been speculation that President Trump will pardon the former Sheriff.  Knowing what you know right now, would you support or oppose a Presidential pardon of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio?

28.3%  Strongly Support

8.8%    Somewhat Support

6.5%    Somewhat Oppose

50.3%  Strongly Oppose

6.3%    Don’t Know, Refused

Decimals, sure -- but I clip those.

We may be seeing a cultural change in Arizona. First, I'm guessing that lots of Californians escaping high rents and taxes are finding heir way to Arizona, and they are taking their political attitudes and expectations with them (OK, maybe many of those recent Californians are Hispanic, so that implies some overlap). The Hispanic segment of the electorate has been growing . It is more liberal than Anglo whites, and it is well organized politically. Assimilating? Sure. It is assimilating white Anglo people.

Arizona was closer in 2016 than usual, and it could be another Virginia  in its political trend (although either Colorado or New Mexico is a closer analogue in demographics).


http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/o...588039001/   

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.







Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

This Arizona poll has Arizona in the same league as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Who would have ever expected Arizona to become about as Democratic as Michigan or Pennsylvania? But that is what the poll shows. Earlier polls are in line.

I can almost predict an anti-Trump slogan perfectly fitting Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire (which were close to being Trump wins), Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (probably Iowa and Ohio, maybe Indiana as well): "Promises Made, Promises Broken. That's Trump".

With Arizona, the fast-growing Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) population and Californians leaving the high taxes and rents of Californians (which surely has a large Hispanic component that should be looked at as an overlap) has been pushing the state toward the Democratic Party. The growth of the Hispanic electorate pushed California from R to D in the 1990s; Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico in the Double-Zero decade, and now Arizona. Maybe Texas around 2020? Maybe Kansas and Nebraska in the 2020s?