09-01-2017, 01:29 AM
I saw two statewide approval polls of the President. The one in Florida is flawed for having so many undecided as it does, but in it President Trump is down 37-47. He had typically been slightly underwater in polling in Florida or about even, but that 37% suggests a possible collapse of support. Who knows? Maybe he is over-exposed at Mar-a-Lago, and the more that people get to know him the less they like him. Or could it be his mangled response to violence at Charlottesville, Virginia?
In West Virginia, he still is ahead 48-39, which is far below recent polls that showed his approval just above 60%. This could be a statistical freak, but in the context of the Florida poll, it might suggest the start of a collapse in support. In a slow building of support, disapproval tends to go to 'undecided' and 'undecided' often goes to 'approval'. Support tends to build slowly, as I saw with Obama in 2008. The collapse of approval tends to be more sudden, but it goes in stages with many of those recently approving becoming undecided and many of those undecided going to disapproval.
In West Virginia, he still is ahead 48-39, which is far below recent polls that showed his approval just above 60%. This could be a statistical freak, but in the context of the Florida poll, it might suggest the start of a collapse in support. In a slow building of support, disapproval tends to go to 'undecided' and 'undecided' often goes to 'approval'. Support tends to build slowly, as I saw with Obama in 2008. The collapse of approval tends to be more sudden, but it goes in stages with many of those recently approving becoming undecided and many of those undecided going to disapproval.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.