Updated for Michigan and Tennessee:
Before I set out on my project, I get a poll on a state of which I made an allusion: Tennessee. If Donald Trump simply made a fool of himself in Alabama by supporting Roy Moore, then that would not appear in Tennessee as well. But if there is a trend in the Mountain and Deep South (western Tennessee and southern Alabama are Deep South, and eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama are Mountain South) altogether, then Tennessee should be drifting away from Trump and the GOP. Tennessee used to be one of the most progressive of the Southern states, and one of my favorite pols (Al Gore) was a US Senator in Tennessee. It's one state, but it does have an open Senate seat in 2018 and an attractive Democratic candidate to fill it. Ten electoral votes are not trivial, either.
I can also add an update for Michigan, a state in which the bare win of Donald Trump looks like about as much a fluke as a six-game winning streak for the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team will be in 2018 (I expect the Tigers to lose 100+ games next year):
In other results, 61% gave President Donald Trump a negative job approval rating, while 37% gave him a positive one. In August, Trump's unfavorable-favorable numbers were 56% to 36%.
Of those polled, 47% said Trump is mentally stable, while 42% said he is mentally unstable. Those numbers were 45% to 43% in August.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/m...956521001/
The contest shows both the leading Democrat and Republican with numbers in the 30s, which is completely useless for predicting anything. In 2008 I had a poll for Tennessee in which Obama had a lead over McCain in Tennessee. Obama actually led something like 39-37. Obama did not get more than the 37% that he had in that poll in the election in Tennessee that year.
This approval map shows electoral votes to the states on the approval map.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;9;1&AK=2;3;5&AZ=1;11;5&AR=2;6;3&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;7&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=1;29;7&GA=4;16;1&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;20;5&IN=1;11;3&IA=1;6;7&KS=2;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;7&MN=1;10;7&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;3&MT=2;3;5&NV=1;6;3&NH=1;4;7&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;15;7&ND=2;3;5&OH=1;18;3&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;3&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=2;10;3&TX=2;38;5&UT=2;6;5&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Trump approval, net positive
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
Trump approval, net negative
44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower
But raw disapproval numbers appear instead of electoral votes here:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;48;1&AK=2;42;5&AZ=1;51;5&AR=2;46;2&CA=1;68;7&CO=1;56;7&CT=1;59;7&DE=1;58;7&DC=1;77;7&FL=1;59;7&GA=4;48;1&HI=1;64;7&ID=2;41;5&IL=1;58;7&IN=1;45;3&IA=1;60;7&KS=2;45;5&KY=2;41;5&LA=2;37;7&MD=1;62;7&MA=1;63;9&MI=1;61;7&MN=1;57;7&MS=2;41;5&MO=2;44;5&MT=2;45;5&NV=1;52;5&NH=1;57;7&NJ=1;65;7&NM=1;53;5&NY=1;59;7&NC=1;57;7&ND=2;44;5&OH=1;49;3&OK=2;39;7&OR=1;57;7&PA=1;51;5&RI=1;67;7&SC=2;44;5&SD=2;44;5&TN=2;47;2&TX=2;44;5&UT=2;42;5&VT=1;62;7&VA=1;62;7&WA=1;59;7&WV=2;36;7&WI=1;52;5&WY=2;35;7&ME=1;52;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;45;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
(net positive for Trump)
46-49%
41-45%
40% or lower
Before I set out on my project, I get a poll on a state of which I made an allusion: Tennessee. If Donald Trump simply made a fool of himself in Alabama by supporting Roy Moore, then that would not appear in Tennessee as well. But if there is a trend in the Mountain and Deep South (western Tennessee and southern Alabama are Deep South, and eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama are Mountain South) altogether, then Tennessee should be drifting away from Trump and the GOP. Tennessee used to be one of the most progressive of the Southern states, and one of my favorite pols (Al Gore) was a US Senator in Tennessee. It's one state, but it does have an open Senate seat in 2018 and an attractive Democratic candidate to fill it. Ten electoral votes are not trivial, either.
Quote:Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove
I can also add an update for Michigan, a state in which the bare win of Donald Trump looks like about as much a fluke as a six-game winning streak for the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team will be in 2018 (I expect the Tigers to lose 100+ games next year):
In other results, 61% gave President Donald Trump a negative job approval rating, while 37% gave him a positive one. In August, Trump's unfavorable-favorable numbers were 56% to 36%.
Of those polled, 47% said Trump is mentally stable, while 42% said he is mentally unstable. Those numbers were 45% to 43% in August.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/m...956521001/
The contest shows both the leading Democrat and Republican with numbers in the 30s, which is completely useless for predicting anything. In 2008 I had a poll for Tennessee in which Obama had a lead over McCain in Tennessee. Obama actually led something like 39-37. Obama did not get more than the 37% that he had in that poll in the election in Tennessee that year.
This approval map shows electoral votes to the states on the approval map.
Trump approval, net positive
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
Trump approval, net negative
44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower
But raw disapproval numbers appear instead of electoral votes here:
Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :
55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%
Ties are in white.
(net positive for Trump)
46-49%
41-45%
40% or lower
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.