Missouri, PPP. Trump approval 48%, disapproval 47% -- slight edge for now for President Trump.
The "Show Me" state has some other issues with the GOP:
Mitch McConnell 23-54, 23 not sure
DREAM Act 61-27
Obamacare repeal, 45-37... keep but improve, 54 and repeal-and-replace 37
...Senator McCaskill has a slight but indecisive edge against her most likely Republican opponent. Add the usual 6% gain from an early match-up for an incumbent, and she wins.
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-c...ry2018.pdf
My map may overstate the chance of Trump winning Missouri in 2020. It is intended to be charitable to any incumbent who has even the slightest edge in approval polling. My seat-of-the-pants prediction for Missouri in 2020 now has Missouri as an extreme tossup. If Missouri indicates anything, it is that the 2020 election will look much like the 2008 election in result.
Now for a real shocker -- Georgia! The state has typically been about even in approval and disapproval for Trump. That is over. This is an outlier... but when we see lots of other outliers, maybe we have to treat the outliers as norms. Trump is awful, and I pay less attention to the 36% approval than to the 59% disapproval.
This may reflect President Trump's recent use of the word $#!+hole to describe some countries whose peoples are melanin-rich. There are of course many melanin-rich people in Georgia, and racist talk that one might expect from a KKK leader or a neo-Nazi might be unsettling to many white people, too.
It's hard to believe, but in view of Alabama and Tennessee showing Trump about even, and Georgia differing from those two states by having one giant metro area instead of several smaller ones (Greater Memphis spills into Arkansas and Mississippi), I can almost think this reasonable. I must accept it. The deviation from the assumption of a 50-50 election nationwide is about the same as for Alabama and Tennessee. Atlanta vs. Memphis/Nashville/Knoxville or vs. Birmingham/Mobile/Montgomery/Huntsville? That is the demographic difference between Georgia and either Alabama or Tennessee. Arguably Missouri, too, as St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas spill into Illinois and Kansas, neither of which are swing states, respectively.
..........
Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI. With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts
int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;9]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;14;7&AK=2;9;5&AZ=2;5;4&AR=2;15;7&CA=1;12;6&CO=1;1;2&CT=1;6;3&DE=1;6;3&DC=1;*;9&FL=2;2;2&GA=2;5;3&HI=1;18;7&ID=2;19;7&IL=1;7;4&IN=2;8;5&IA=2;3;2&KS=2;13;7&KY=2;15;7&LA=2;11;5&MD=1;12;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;1;2&MN=1;1;5&MS=2;9;5&MO=2;9;5&MT=2;11;5&NV=1;1;2&NH=4;0;1&NJ=1;7;3&NM=1;3;2&NY=1;12;5&NC=2;3;2&ND=2;17;7&OH=2;3;2&OK=2;20;9&OR=1;5;3&PA=4;0;1&RI=1;10;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;14;7&TN=2;14;7&TX=2;8;3&UT=2;20;9&VT=1;15;7&VA=1;1;2&WA=1;7;3&WV=2;19;7&WI=4;0;1&WY=2;25;9&ME=1;3;2&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=2;1;2&NE=2;14;7&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;9)
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;48;2&AK=0;3;4&AZ=0;11;5&AR=2;53;5&CA=1;40;7&CO=1;44;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;6;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;41;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;49;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;57;7&LA=4;50;1&MD=1;35;7&MA=1;35;7&MI=1;39;7&MN=1;47;5&MS=2;53;7&MO=2;53;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;34;7&NJ=1;34;7&NM=0;5;5&NY=0;29;6&NC=1;43;7&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;18;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&6&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=2;53;5&TX=0;38;4&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=1;43;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;6&WI=1;43;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?
Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more. For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS) suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=3;12;7&AK=0;3;4&AZ=0;11;5&AR=3;12;7&CA=5;2;3&CO=3;5;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;6;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=0;29;4&GA=3;12;7&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=3;2;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=3;8;5&LA=3;11;7&MD=3;3;5&MA=3;4;3&MI=3;10;7&MN=3;2;3&MS=3;6;5&MO=3;7;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=3;16;7&NJ=3;9;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=0;29;6&NC=3;10;7&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;18;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=3;11;7&TX=0;38;4&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=3;5;5&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;6&WI=3;7;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Twenty states with recent polls... now two-fifths (40%) of all states, and 237 electoral votes. If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South.
The 2020 election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.
Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*,Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.
*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.
The "Show Me" state has some other issues with the GOP:
Mitch McConnell 23-54, 23 not sure
DREAM Act 61-27
Obamacare repeal, 45-37... keep but improve, 54 and repeal-and-replace 37
...Senator McCaskill has a slight but indecisive edge against her most likely Republican opponent. Add the usual 6% gain from an early match-up for an incumbent, and she wins.
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-c...ry2018.pdf
My map may overstate the chance of Trump winning Missouri in 2020. It is intended to be charitable to any incumbent who has even the slightest edge in approval polling. My seat-of-the-pants prediction for Missouri in 2020 now has Missouri as an extreme tossup. If Missouri indicates anything, it is that the 2020 election will look much like the 2008 election in result.
Now for a real shocker -- Georgia! The state has typically been about even in approval and disapproval for Trump. That is over. This is an outlier... but when we see lots of other outliers, maybe we have to treat the outliers as norms. Trump is awful, and I pay less attention to the 36% approval than to the 59% disapproval.
This may reflect President Trump's recent use of the word $#!+hole to describe some countries whose peoples are melanin-rich. There are of course many melanin-rich people in Georgia, and racist talk that one might expect from a KKK leader or a neo-Nazi might be unsettling to many white people, too.
Quote:Shock Poll From The Atlanta Journal Constitution/University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs:
Georgia:
36.7% Approve
58.7% Disapprove
It's hard to believe, but in view of Alabama and Tennessee showing Trump about even, and Georgia differing from those two states by having one giant metro area instead of several smaller ones (Greater Memphis spills into Arkansas and Mississippi), I can almost think this reasonable. I must accept it. The deviation from the assumption of a 50-50 election nationwide is about the same as for Alabama and Tennessee. Atlanta vs. Memphis/Nashville/Knoxville or vs. Birmingham/Mobile/Montgomery/Huntsville? That is the demographic difference between Georgia and either Alabama or Tennessee. Arguably Missouri, too, as St. Louis and Kansas City metro areas spill into Illinois and Kansas, neither of which are swing states, respectively.
..........
Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI. With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts
int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?
Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more. For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS) suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.
Twenty states with recent polls... now two-fifths (40%) of all states, and 237 electoral votes. If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South.
The 2020 election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.
Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*,
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.
*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.