Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

The old map (but updated!) showing approvals for all 50 states, but nothing to do with Cook PVI:

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.



Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:




Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

The near-ties in Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi; and Tennessee;  the edge that I see against Trump in Louisiana; and his abysmal approval ratings in Georgia all suggest a collapse of Trump support within the Mountain and Deep South. This is before I discuss such states as Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia  that are or have been marginally "Southern" in their politics. This is more recent (no earlier than October) than what I see for thirty states for which I have not shown contrasts between 'normal' results in a 50-50 election according to their Cook

*((((((((( CV&U

(sorry, the cat jumped upon my keyboard)

PVI ratings in some more recent exercises.  This almost suggests a reversion to the situation with Carter in 1976, except that the demographic patterns of voting suggest something different.

The election of Senator Doug Jones suggests that a pattern of educated white suburbanites drifting away from the GOP in 2006, 2008, and 2012 in the North and West that did not happen in the South in those elections may be happening in the South. Jones did well among the presumable 'high-information' voters in such places as Huntsville and Tuscaloosa in December. To be sure, that is but one election, and any trend can reverse quickly.

Meanwhile, things are not going well for Trump 'Up North'. One poll of Iowa showed disapproval for Trump at 60% and another showed disapproval at 51%; were I to make a guess than to rigidly follow my model (which I must do for the sake of consistency) his disapproval in Iowa is probably about 55%, which suggests that Trump would get no more than about 45% of the vote in Iowa. That is about what John McCain got in 2008. Michigan and New Hampshire, the two closest states for Trump in 2016, show intense disapproval for President Trump.

Sure, I'd like more data. Texas, which is marginally "Southern" because it straddles cultural regions of America and is not a region in itself despite its size, might confirm or deny my conjectures. I have seen polls of Texas in which Trump is underwater, and I would not be surprised to see such again.  I still want to see new polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania, for which I have nothing, and for Arizona and Nevada, for which polling is old. Not that there are any big electoral prizes in the states of the High Plains and Badlands from Montana to Oklahoma, I have a big hole for recent polling in such states.

Would you be surprised to see South Carolina underwater for Trump at this stage? I wouldn't.

OK, you say -- maybe the Georgia poll is an exaggeration. Tough luck on that. It follows a shocking statement by the President with racist overtones about some countries and people from them. But in my experience in watching elections, shocks stick. Never mind that President Trump could hardly do worse with the black vote in 2020 than he did in 2016 -- the poll shows white people turning against him. Racism is a dying phenomenon in America, and the President should have kept his mouth shut in the presence of people who could confirm the "$#!+hole" remark. He can't quote lie his way out of it.  

At this point I see the 2020 election looking like one in which the Democrat has a chance of winning every state that any Democratic nominee for President since 1976, which implies a vote for even an average Democratic nominee that combines Carter and Obama wins while picking off Arizona.