01-25-2018, 04:10 PM
OHIO 43/52
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/...y_nar.html
[/quote]
The poll was commissioned by the 1984 Society, a nonprofit, bipartisan group of former Ohio Senate employees and senators who wanted good independent polling for the political community. It was conducted via phone interviews by Fallon Research with a sample size of 801 and a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
.....
Ohio has offered no poll since the 2016 election, and it is the bellwether state. It looks as if it will go against Donald Trump in 2020. Note that my estimate for Trump is a ceiling based solely upon disapproval, which is a conservative estimate.
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts
int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;9]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;14;7&AK=2;9;5&AZ=2;5;4&AR=2;15;7&CA=1;12;6&CO=1;1;2&CT=1;6;3&DE=1;6;3&DC=1;*;9&FL=2;2;2&GA=2;5;3&HI=1;18;7&ID=2;19;7&IL=1;7;4&IN=2;8;5&IA=2;3;2&KS=2;13;7&KY=2;15;7&LA=2;11;5&MD=1;12;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;1;2&MN=1;1;2&MS=2;9;5&MO=2;9;5&MT=2;11;5&NV=1;1;2&NH=4;0;1&NJ=1;7;3&NM=1;3;2&NY=1;12;5&NC=2;3;2&ND=2;17;7&OH=2;3;2&OK=2;20;9&OR=1;5;3&PA=4;0;1&RI=1;10;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;14;7&TN=2;14;7&TX=2;8;5&UT=2;20;9&VT=1;15;7&VA=1;1;2&WA=1;7;3&WV=2;19;7&WI=4;0;1&WY=2;25;9&ME=1;3;2&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=2;1;2&NE=2;14;7&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;9)
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;48;2&AK=0;3;4&AZ=0;11;5&AR=2;53;5&CA=1;40;7&CO=1;44;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;6;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=0;29;4&GA=1;41;7&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;49;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;57;7&LA=4;50;1&MD=1;35;7&MA=1;35;7&MI=1;46;5&MN=1;53;2&MS=2;53;7&MO=2;53;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;34;7&NJ=1;34;7&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;33;7&NC=1;50;3&ND=0;3;5&OH=1;48;2&OK=2;62;9&OR=0;7;5&6&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=2;53;5&TX=0;36;5&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=1;43;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=2;52;5&WI=1;43;7&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.
100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?
Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more. For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS) suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=3;12;7&AK=0;3;4&AZ=0;11;5&AR=3;12;7&CA=5;2;3&CO=3;5;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;6;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=0;29;4&GA=3;12;7&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=3;2;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=3;8;5&LA=3;11;7&MD=3;3;5&MA=3;4;3&MI=3;3;3&MN=5;4;2&MS=3;6;5&MO=3;7;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=3;16;7&NJ=3;9;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=3;1;3&NC=3;3;3&ND=0;3;5&OH=3;5;3&OK=3;8;5&OR=0;7;5&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=3;11;7&TX=0;36;5&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=3;5;5&WA=0;12;5&WV=3;17;7&WI=3;7;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Fully half (25) states now show recent polls... If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. Wishful thinking and two dollars + tax will get you a two-dollar cup of coffee. Two dollars + tax will get you the same cup of coffee even without wishful thinking.
The 2020 election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.
Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*,Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%.
*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/...y_nar.html
[/quote]
The poll was commissioned by the 1984 Society, a nonprofit, bipartisan group of former Ohio Senate employees and senators who wanted good independent polling for the political community. It was conducted via phone interviews by Fallon Research with a sample size of 801 and a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
.....
Quote:OHIO STATEWIDE SURVEY
1/16/18 - 1/19/2018 N=801, +/- 3.46% General Election Voters
(percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding)
Generally speaking, would you say that Ohio is going in the right direction or has it gotten off onto the wrong track?
54.2% Right direction 24.2 Wrong track 5.3 Mixed/both (volunteered) 16.3 Unsure/no answer
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by President Donald Trump? If approve or disapprove, interviewer follow-up: Would you say that you strongly [approve/disapprove], or just somewhat [approve/disapprove]?
43.4% TOTAL APPROVE
31.3 Strongly approve 12.1 Somewhat approve
51.6% TOTAL DISAPPROVE
11.1 Somewhat disapprove 40.5 Strongly disapprove 4.9% Unsure/no answer
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Ohio Governor John Kasich? If approve or disapprove, interviewer follow-up: Would you say that you strongly [approve/disapprove], or just somewhat [approve/disapprove]?
57.2% TOTAL APPROVE
20.9 Strongly approve 36.3 Somewhat approve
29% TOTAL DISAPPROVE
15.6 Somewhat disapprove 13.4 Strongly disapprove 13.9% Unsure/no answer
Ohio has offered no poll since the 2016 election, and it is the bellwether state. It looks as if it will go against Donald Trump in 2020. Note that my estimate for Trump is a ceiling based solely upon disapproval, which is a conservative estimate.
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts
int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.
100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?
Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more. For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS) suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.
Fully half (25) states now show recent polls... If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. Wishful thinking and two dollars + tax will get you a two-dollar cup of coffee. Two dollars + tax will get you the same cup of coffee even without wishful thinking.
The 2020 election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.
Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*,
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%.
*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.