Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

This set of maps suggests how far the unpopularity of the President causes a likely deviation from a 50-50 split in the popular vote:

These maps revive the topic of whether President Trump is doing better or worse than is necessary for winning a 50-50 split of the popular vote. To refresh on the guidelines for deciding what is a 50-50 vote nationwide based upon the recent voting in the various states and DC:   


Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more



Cook PVI assumes a 50-50 Presidential election, reasonable since 2000 because except for the 2008 Presidential election all such exception, those five all were basically even for almost the entire electoral season. One can use polling to predict whether the next Presidential election will be a 50-50 proposition, and if not, how far the likely reality diverges from that assumption.

Based on 2012 and 2016 Cook PVI shows that the average Republican nominee will carry Alabama 59-41 and Florida 52-48; that the nominees will tie in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania; and that the Democratic nominee will win Michigan by 51-49 and New York 62-38. Of course, even in a 50-50 election, cultural affinities and the emphases will matter greatly. So could demographic trends. We will talk about that for Arizona and Texas.   

For DC (not measured) and Congressional districts that vote independently of states, I have common sense for Dee Cee and the congressional votes for those districts.

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

After seeing Trump behind 47-48 in Indiana and 43- 52 in Texas, and at a 45-45 tie in Kentucky, states that Republicans have usually won easily since 2000, I get  to assess states as 100-disapproval as a ceiling for a Trump vote in 2020. Those three states have 55 electoral votes between them that the Republican nominee dare not lose. That is two more than California.  



100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  


Now, for the variance between  100-DIS from recent polling and Cook PVI.   

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):



Orange implies that President Trump projects to do better than Cook PVI based on 100-DIS. So the President is doing 2% better in California in accordance with 100-DIS than Cook PVI suggests. President Trump projects to do 1% better than the typical Republican nominee in Vermont.

That's the end of the good news for his prospects of re-election, and that good news isn't very relevant. This projection suggests that overall the President will NOT approach 50% of the vote in 2020.