Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Virginia (Quinnipiac):

38% Approve
56% Disapprove

Source


Another atrocious poll for the President in Virginia (one of the two states in which I expect people to be most savvy about politics -- the other is Maryland). Forgetting the last poll I mapped for Virginia, I was tempted to think that this is another outlier -- but it is actually a slight (if insignificant) improvement for the President.


Marist/NBC, Arizona, Florida, and Ohio:


Trump approval in Arizona 41-47; 52% of Arizona state voters will vote for Democrats to check Donald Trump. Should be re-elected -- 35%; should not 57%.

Trump approval in Florida 45-46. 49% want more Democrats in Congress to check the President, and only 40% want more Republicans to aid him in advancing his legislation. Should he be re-elected? 37% for, 54% against.

Trump approval in Ohio: 42-49. 35-51 split on whether they want more Democrats in Congress to check President Trump or Republicans to aid in passing his agenda. Re-elect him? Only 34% agree, and 58% disagree.

Quote:...These three states voted for Donald Trump for President in 2016, and it looks in view of the more explicit question of re-electing him, that they won't. Starting with the baseline of 306-232 in the Electoral college (ignoring people who cast electoral votes for someone other than Trump or Clinton as protest messages), these states have 11, 18, and 29 electoral votes. Those three states alone would be the difference between Trump getting 306 electoral votes in a repeat of 2016 and ending up with only 248.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-r...d_nn_tw_np

My model of 100-DIS may be too lenient for this President. My model errs on the side of caution. It has been my proxy for the basic question of whether Donald Trump will or will not be re-elected. The question in this Marist poll asks this question explicitly and supersedes ny proxy of 100-DIS where available. At this point the only questions of whether President Trump will be re-elected will be:

1. whether estimates for Arizona, Florida, and Ohio are accurate
2. whether answers to the question "re-elect/elect someone else" stick (changes in attitudes toward this President, as shown in polling)
3. whether the Democrats avoid nominating someone unsuited to the Presidency (let us say a Democrat with much the same sordid personal life and business connections as Donald Trump) or Vice-President (think of Sarah Palin)
4. whether President Trump chooses to run for President or can run
5. whether we have free and competitive elections or get a rigged election

Yes, "Generic Democrat" and "Generic Republican" go into hibernation about as winter starts loosening its icy grip in Iowa and New Hampshire in the year of a Presidential election.

Quote:It's worth noting that these surveys were in the field June 17-22, during a time when the national conversation was focused on the administration’s policy of separating migrant children from their parents.

Of course, it's hard to imagine Americans becoming more sympathetic to the harsh separation of parents and children in the deportation issue. People who believe that children and parents alike should be deported if they came here illegally can strongly disapprove of separating parents and children, let alone using the children as tools of blackmailing people seeking entry into the US to abandon their rights to contest the legal process of deportation. I see forced separation of parents and children as a potential means of compromising the rights of citizens in criminal cases (as in, plead guilty to a felony charge or you will lose your children permanently). Children should not be bargaining chips in the legal process unless the process involves the possibility of abuse or neglect.

Illegal aliens have the right to due process of law, and if they don't, then such is at risk for us all. This President inculcates as much fear as he inculcates disgust.


Approval of the President:



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.