08-13-2018, 02:36 PM
[quote author=GeorgiaModerate link=topic=297289.msg6353747#msg6353747 date=1534179959]
Gallup weekly
Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)
This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).
[/quote]
Trump is about 6% behind Obama eight years ago. Obama was a good enough politician that even with a constant barrage of cat-calls by the Tea Party critics he was able to transform a 45% approval rating into a 51% share of the binary vote nationwide in 2012. That was enough to win 332 electoral votes, although 29 of those (Florida) were shaky in the last week.
Should Trump do as well in parlaying his approval rating into electoral support (by adding 6% to his approval rating), he ends up with 45% of the popular vote. That will not be enough unless the Democrats rift -- a possibility, but one less likely than the 'conservative' vote rifting. 45% of the vote share is about what Dukakis got in 1988, and decidedly less than Kerry got in 2004, McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012.
The cat-calls against Donald Trump may be more civilized, but I see them no less effective.
I can't really show you what a 55-45 split of the popular vote looks like for a Republican. I can show it for Dukakis:
![[Image: pe1988.png]](https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1988.png)
428-111 for the elder Bush.
OK, Trump will win West Virginia, which is about as R now as it was D in 1988. America has been so polarized regionally that Obama would have gotten at most 379 electoral votes had he gotten 55% of the popular vote in 2008. Strange things start to happen as one gets away from a near 50-50 split of the popular vote -- mostly that unlikely states swing wildly in one direction.
The 56% disapproval rating suggests a ceiling of 44% (100-DIS) of the popular vote for President Trump. This is consistent with my polling map.
President Trump is not as astute a campaigner as Obama.
Gallup weekly
Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)
This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).
[/quote]
Trump is about 6% behind Obama eight years ago. Obama was a good enough politician that even with a constant barrage of cat-calls by the Tea Party critics he was able to transform a 45% approval rating into a 51% share of the binary vote nationwide in 2012. That was enough to win 332 electoral votes, although 29 of those (Florida) were shaky in the last week.
Should Trump do as well in parlaying his approval rating into electoral support (by adding 6% to his approval rating), he ends up with 45% of the popular vote. That will not be enough unless the Democrats rift -- a possibility, but one less likely than the 'conservative' vote rifting. 45% of the vote share is about what Dukakis got in 1988, and decidedly less than Kerry got in 2004, McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012.
The cat-calls against Donald Trump may be more civilized, but I see them no less effective.
I can't really show you what a 55-45 split of the popular vote looks like for a Republican. I can show it for Dukakis:
428-111 for the elder Bush.
OK, Trump will win West Virginia, which is about as R now as it was D in 1988. America has been so polarized regionally that Obama would have gotten at most 379 electoral votes had he gotten 55% of the popular vote in 2008. Strange things start to happen as one gets away from a near 50-50 split of the popular vote -- mostly that unlikely states swing wildly in one direction.
The 56% disapproval rating suggests a ceiling of 44% (100-DIS) of the popular vote for President Trump. This is consistent with my polling map.
President Trump is not as astute a campaigner as Obama.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.