Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Iowa has a poll out by Selzer for the Des Moines Register. , but the incumbent Republican Governor is underwater in approval and is behind her Democratic challenger. Selzer is excellent, and caught the Trump surge/Clinton collapse in Iowa that many thought was an outlier in 2016.

I'm showing this poll because I have much to connect to it. Iowa is close to the national average in R-D orientation. Data related to this poll likely says much about America as a whole.

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)


If anyone thinks that Iowa will be 'Safe R' in 2020, think again. Selzer is an excellent pollster, and got the rightward shift of Iowa in 2014 (Ernst in 2014, Trump in 2016) with uncanny accuracy. Selzer almost certainly catches the opposite trend, too.

From the source:

Quote:Seventeen percent of Iowans say they are convinced everything is normal and safe, 24 percent say they have some concerns and 16 percent say they have a lot of concerns. The largest share — 36 percent — say they are convinced what is happening is not normal and safe. Seven percent are unsure.

These numbers suggest a cause for the poor approval numbers of the President in Iowa. Add the numbers of people who think that things are normal and safe (17) to those who have some concerns (24) and you are close to the approval number (41 as opposed to 39 for approval); add the numbers of people who have a lot of concerns (16) to the number of people convinced that what is happening is neither normal nor safe (36) and you get a number (52) just short of the total number of those who disapprove.

34% think that America on the whole is on the right track, and 55% think that America is on the wrong track. Note that the 55% is close to total disapproval, with the 34% short of total approval. Ouch!

40% of Iowa's likely voters say that support for Donald Trump will make them less likely to vote for a political candidate, in contrast to 18% of them thinking such a cause to make them more likely to vote for a political candidate. Although 41% will not let them change their minds at all about a candidate (paraphrased from source) this disparity is likely to hurt Republicans who have any connection to Trump policies.

Finally, on the poll, favorability of Obama is at 58% (unfavorable at 38%) in contrast to that of Trump, for whom these numbers are practically inverted (41% and 56%, respectively). Favorability and approval ratings for the President have been close in most states, so I would conclude that the best way for Democrats to win Iowa's six electoral votes is to find a nominee as similar to Obama in key aspects of behavior, values, and personality. That will be tough.

I expect Joni Ernst and Donald Trump to be one-time wonders in Iowa who go down to electoral defeat together in 2020. Iowa looks to be in the tier of states that includes Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, states that barely voted for or against Trump. Recent polls suggest that those states could be drifting out of reach for him if they have not already done so.

Iowa is the definitive agribusiness state, and the trade war could cost Iowa farmers $2.2 billion in revenues.

Quote:Iowa is the nation's second-largest ag exporter, after California, exporting close to $11 billion in 2016, the report shows.

Iowa leads the nation in corn, soybean and pork exports.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/...368546002/

Farmers vote their pocketbooks. In most years that means that they vote Republican out of a concern for taxes, as farmers are easy to tax. But revenue losses hurt far more than any tax cuts that farmers can get. Tariffs will raise costs of farming. Lost farm revenues and higher costs will also hurt tax receipts of state and county governments. No tax cut can ever compensate for lost revenues or higher costs of production as large as those that Trump's trade war will impose.

...Oh, would I like to see polls for some states that have even more farmers as a share of the electorate. Or is it that Iowa agriculture implies lots of family farms with factory-like working conditions for farm workers who vote as if they were blue-collar workers of the 1930s?






55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.