11-15-2018, 07:11 PM
Some polls from the week after the 2018 election, and (any surprise) some of my analysis:
CNN/SSRS, Nov. 8-12, 677 adults. According to the text, the same respondents were interviewed the previous week.
Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (+1)
Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)[/quote]
I'm guessing that some undecided conservative voters from the week of the election have gotten cold feet about rejecting President Trump. But 56% disapproval indicates that some rather conservative people dislike the President. Nearly a majority 'strongly disapproves'. CNN suggests that opinions are nearly set with practically no wiggle room.
Raw approval and disapproval numbers aren't so hideous in this poll, and it is possible for an incumbent winning while facing 49% disapproval. Simply pick up everyone who does not disapprove, which explains Obama in 2012.
The approval and disapproval numbers for the President may not be that bad on the surface -- but these numbers suggest a six-year itch after two years, which is not the spot that Obama was in in 2010. In 2010, America was returning to conservative norms in political identity after Obama did everything that everyone thought he needed to do and did some things that the Right disliked. Trump is in a worse spot. The news media hold him in contempt. His biggest achievement in foreign policy can implode at any moment. The President has too many scandals for anyone to handle except as a prosecutor or investigator. It is theoretically possible that President Trump could learn from his mistakes, but I have yet to see any evidence of such. He so far has been more adept at casting blame than at solving problems.
The historical floor for a President getting re-elected in a binary election is about 40% (Hoover; Carter got 41% with John Anderson getting 6% (which looks much like a part of the Democratic coalition that they would have in 1992 but never had before then).
"Someone else" probably does not mean the eventual Democratic nominee of 2020 to at least 4% of the electorate. I can't imagine any Democratic nominee for President getting more than 55% of the vote under any circumstances other than a severe recession or a botched war.
Different pollster, and although the approval number is just short of his share of the popular vote that he got in 2016, the high level of disapproval suggests that 45% is close to his ceiling.
45% of the popular vote does not win. That is not enough with which to win his three barest wins in 2016 (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and probably not Iowa. It won't give him either of the four closest states to going for him in 2016 (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada). "Strongly disapprove" is already ahead of "approve (at any level)" in this poll. In a binary election, Trump would do about as badly as McCain in 2008 and Dukakis in 1992. The only way in which he could win is if the left-leaning vote splits, but it is more likely that someone sees an opening for a conservative opponent who can give conservatives an alternative to voting for the Democratic nominee, something that John Anderson did in 1980 .
The Democrat getting 51% of the popular vote, Trump getting 41%, and an Anderson-like analogue getting 7%?
![[Image: pe1980.png]](https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1980.png)
That's what 1980 looked like. 51-41-7.
CNN/SSRS, Nov. 8-12, 677 adults. According to the text, the same respondents were interviewed the previous week.
Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (+1)
Strongly approve 30 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)[/quote]
I'm guessing that some undecided conservative voters from the week of the election have gotten cold feet about rejecting President Trump. But 56% disapproval indicates that some rather conservative people dislike the President. Nearly a majority 'strongly disapproves'. CNN suggests that opinions are nearly set with practically no wiggle room.
Quote:Monmouth, Nov. 9-12, 802 adults (change from August)
Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)
Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should
be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?
Re-elect Trump 36
Someone else 59
Raw approval and disapproval numbers aren't so hideous in this poll, and it is possible for an incumbent winning while facing 49% disapproval. Simply pick up everyone who does not disapprove, which explains Obama in 2012.
The approval and disapproval numbers for the President may not be that bad on the surface -- but these numbers suggest a six-year itch after two years, which is not the spot that Obama was in in 2010. In 2010, America was returning to conservative norms in political identity after Obama did everything that everyone thought he needed to do and did some things that the Right disliked. Trump is in a worse spot. The news media hold him in contempt. His biggest achievement in foreign policy can implode at any moment. The President has too many scandals for anyone to handle except as a prosecutor or investigator. It is theoretically possible that President Trump could learn from his mistakes, but I have yet to see any evidence of such. He so far has been more adept at casting blame than at solving problems.
The historical floor for a President getting re-elected in a binary election is about 40% (Hoover; Carter got 41% with John Anderson getting 6% (which looks much like a part of the Democratic coalition that they would have in 1992 but never had before then).
"Someone else" probably does not mean the eventual Democratic nominee of 2020 to at least 4% of the electorate. I can't imagine any Democratic nominee for President getting more than 55% of the vote under any circumstances other than a severe recession or a botched war.
Quote:YouGov, Nov. 11-13, 1500 adults including 1284 RV
Adults:
Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (+2)
Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+4)
RV:
Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)
Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)
Different pollster, and although the approval number is just short of his share of the popular vote that he got in 2016, the high level of disapproval suggests that 45% is close to his ceiling.
45% of the popular vote does not win. That is not enough with which to win his three barest wins in 2016 (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), and probably not Iowa. It won't give him either of the four closest states to going for him in 2016 (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Nevada). "Strongly disapprove" is already ahead of "approve (at any level)" in this poll. In a binary election, Trump would do about as badly as McCain in 2008 and Dukakis in 1992. The only way in which he could win is if the left-leaning vote splits, but it is more likely that someone sees an opening for a conservative opponent who can give conservatives an alternative to voting for the Democratic nominee, something that John Anderson did in 1980 .
The Democrat getting 51% of the popular vote, Trump getting 41%, and an Anderson-like analogue getting 7%?
That's what 1980 looked like. 51-41-7.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.