12-13-2018, 01:33 AM
Say what you want about FoX Propaganda Channel, but at least it does good polling.
December 9-11
Approve: 46% (strongly 27%)
Disapprove 52% (strongly 42%)
But how do people think they will be voting?
![[Image: poll2pic2.png?ve=1&tl=1]](https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2018/12/1862/1048/poll2pic2.png?ve=1&tl=1)
This is worse, and likely more accurate and relevant , than my cautious measure of 100-DISapproval as a predictor of a re-election bid for an incumbent if I dislike the President (or other incumbent).
This is how people see the 2020 Presidential election shaping up:
![[Image: poll2pic1.png?ve=1&tl=1]](https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2018/12/1862/1048/poll2pic1.png?ve=1&tl=1)
This is consistent with polls of six state polls of a few months back by Marist polling that a majority of voters in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in which a majority wanted someone other than Donald Trump to be elected President in 2020. Trump lost only one of those states (barely), won four of them by margins less than 4%, and won two by 8% or more. I shall try to recover that information. I took that data as overpowering evidence that President Trump would lose a re-election bid.
That is not to say that some other Republican would lose as the Republican nominee as President.Thus if he were to cease being President due to resignation, death, or incapacitation such data would become completely irrelevant. This also does not say that the Democrat would get 55%, let alone 61%, of the popular vote; if only 39% of the electorate chooses to vote for Donald Trump, then such implies that a conservative alternative is getting at least 6% of the popular vote.
If I am to use Jimmy Carter as a model of an electoral failure in a re-election bid (and I cannot see Trump doing much worse), then it is possible that the vote splits 51 (about what Obama did in 2008) - 41 Trump - 6 for someone who offers a more traditional sort of conservatism. Anyone 45 or older is familiar with such an election. That is how Reagan did in 1980, winning all but 49 electoral votes.
Let me make this abundantly clear: Jimmy Carter is a man of integrity and decency; he is about as good a person as Donald Trump isn't. But know this well: we have never had a President with such pervasive and systematic corruption as Donald Trump. I could have as easily spoken of Herbert Hoover, whose re-election bid is so far back that one would be almost as old as Jimmy Carter to remember. Hoover managed to get about 40% of the popular vote and 59 electoral votes in 1932 after bungling the response to the worst economic meltdown in eighty years -- before or after. But Hoover was at least a man of integrity and personal decency.
I can think of scenarios in which either Mike Pence or even Paul Ryan becomes President and runs for re-election in 2020; in either case everything that I say about a Trump bid for re-election becomes irrelevant.
December 9-11
Approve: 46% (strongly 27%)
Disapprove 52% (strongly 42%)
But how do people think they will be voting?
This is worse, and likely more accurate and relevant , than my cautious measure of 100-DISapproval as a predictor of a re-election bid for an incumbent if I dislike the President (or other incumbent).
This is how people see the 2020 Presidential election shaping up:
This is consistent with polls of six state polls of a few months back by Marist polling that a majority of voters in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in which a majority wanted someone other than Donald Trump to be elected President in 2020. Trump lost only one of those states (barely), won four of them by margins less than 4%, and won two by 8% or more. I shall try to recover that information. I took that data as overpowering evidence that President Trump would lose a re-election bid.
That is not to say that some other Republican would lose as the Republican nominee as President.Thus if he were to cease being President due to resignation, death, or incapacitation such data would become completely irrelevant. This also does not say that the Democrat would get 55%, let alone 61%, of the popular vote; if only 39% of the electorate chooses to vote for Donald Trump, then such implies that a conservative alternative is getting at least 6% of the popular vote.
If I am to use Jimmy Carter as a model of an electoral failure in a re-election bid (and I cannot see Trump doing much worse), then it is possible that the vote splits 51 (about what Obama did in 2008) - 41 Trump - 6 for someone who offers a more traditional sort of conservatism. Anyone 45 or older is familiar with such an election. That is how Reagan did in 1980, winning all but 49 electoral votes.
Let me make this abundantly clear: Jimmy Carter is a man of integrity and decency; he is about as good a person as Donald Trump isn't. But know this well: we have never had a President with such pervasive and systematic corruption as Donald Trump. I could have as easily spoken of Herbert Hoover, whose re-election bid is so far back that one would be almost as old as Jimmy Carter to remember. Hoover managed to get about 40% of the popular vote and 59 electoral votes in 1932 after bungling the response to the worst economic meltdown in eighty years -- before or after. But Hoover was at least a man of integrity and personal decency.
I can think of scenarios in which either Mike Pence or even Paul Ryan becomes President and runs for re-election in 2020; in either case everything that I say about a Trump bid for re-election becomes irrelevant.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.