01-23-2019, 01:44 PM
New York State only: Quinnipiac, Jan. 16-21, 929 RV (change from July)
Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)
[/quote]
This is New York State, where Donald Trump is better known than anywhere else, and for all that, one state in which he has been least successful in winning voters over. I suspect that Q is calibrating itself for other statewide polls, as of Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even Texas.
I doubt that anyone ever expected President Trump to get a flattering poll from New York. To put it as bluntly as possible, Donald Trump is the New Yorker that one loves to hate, and I don't mean Yankees fans at Fenway Park. I thought that approval polls of Trump in New York State were horrid last summer, but this is certifiably worse... much worse. A loss of 7% approval in New York State is the difference between losing New York 67-29 and losing the state 59-36, which will not make a difference in the Electoral College in 2020.
To give some idea of how bad a 7% loss in support in New York State is, consider the most recent binary blowouts by a Democrat of a Republican in Presidential elections:
LBJ 68, Goldwater 31
Obama 63, McCain 36
If you are wondering about FDR, he defeated Landon 'only' 59-40 in 1936 in New York State.
It may be a harsh judgment upon his supporters, but the only demographics that I can see supporting Donald Trump in the end are the gullible and unfeeling. There are people who identify with such fictional villains as Darth Vader, J R Ewing, the Wicked Witch of the West, and the shark from Jaws or real-life villains like mobsters and tyrants.
Trump approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=1;*;2&AZ=1;*;2&AR=0;;6&CA=0;;6&CO=1;;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=0;;4&GA=1;*;2&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;*;2&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=0;;6&MA=1;;7&MI=0;;5&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=0;;5&NH=0;;5&NJ=0;;5&NM=0;;5&NY=1;;7&NC=1;*;2&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=0;;6&OR=0;;5&PA=0;;5&RI=0;;6&SC=0;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=0;;4&UT=0;;7&VT=0;;6&VA=0;;5&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=0;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white) 1
44-49% and negative 20
40-43% 11
under 40% 67
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
41 more states, and 437 electoral votes to go!
Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)
[/quote]
This is New York State, where Donald Trump is better known than anywhere else, and for all that, one state in which he has been least successful in winning voters over. I suspect that Q is calibrating itself for other statewide polls, as of Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even Texas.
I doubt that anyone ever expected President Trump to get a flattering poll from New York. To put it as bluntly as possible, Donald Trump is the New Yorker that one loves to hate, and I don't mean Yankees fans at Fenway Park. I thought that approval polls of Trump in New York State were horrid last summer, but this is certifiably worse... much worse. A loss of 7% approval in New York State is the difference between losing New York 67-29 and losing the state 59-36, which will not make a difference in the Electoral College in 2020.
To give some idea of how bad a 7% loss in support in New York State is, consider the most recent binary blowouts by a Democrat of a Republican in Presidential elections:
LBJ 68, Goldwater 31
Obama 63, McCain 36
If you are wondering about FDR, he defeated Landon 'only' 59-40 in 1936 in New York State.
It may be a harsh judgment upon his supporters, but the only demographics that I can see supporting Donald Trump in the end are the gullible and unfeeling. There are people who identify with such fictional villains as Darth Vader, J R Ewing, the Wicked Witch of the West, and the shark from Jaws or real-life villains like mobsters and tyrants.
Trump approval:
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white) 1
44-49% and negative 20
40-43% 11
under 40% 67
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
41 more states, and 437 electoral votes to go!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.