01-24-2019, 07:08 PM
Two states -- Florida and Wisconsin.
Florida could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win. On the other hand the Democratic nominee could lose Florida and still win.
Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.
Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-...ff7b080001
Another key state:
Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)
Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)
Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?
Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49
Net: Trump 39, someone else 57
Results
Wisconsin has seemed like the tipping point for 2020 since Election Night 2016, and if only 39% of the people now intend to vote for Trump with just over 21 months to go... there's a better chance of a World Series between the Detroit Kittens and the Miami Minnows in 2020 than that Trump wins re-election in 2020.
A Colorado poll had only 36% of state voters admitting that they would vote for Trump. I may want to create a map suggesting how willing people are to vote for Trump. I have had 100-DIS as a Trump ceiling in the event that he should be an effective fund-raiser and campaigner and have a good electoral machine behind him. He would have to be as good at such as "Mister Unmentionable" at such to get re-elected.
Yes, we are accustomed to seeing Presidents re-elected, but it now looks as if Obama will be the last such President to be re-elected until at least 2024.
I have a huge span in pink coloration because in theory anyone who has at least 43% approval in a state has a chance of winning that state. I now have 90 of 138 electoral votes already in that category. Trump will win if he picks up everything in pink, but he must really pick up everything. I thought that the asterisk would separate states with something like 46-48 from a state with 44-52 like Wisconsin, "46-48" suggesting that if most things go right for Trump, he wins the state. Ignoring Iowa, which is going to vote with Wisconsin, and Alaska as too small to matter and a seeming outlier, I see five coin tosses. If it comes down to five simple coin tosses as 50% chances (which is probably an overestimation of Trump chances), then Trump has one chance in winning re-election if you hand him everything that he won by more than 3% that is not yet on this map, then he has one chance in 32 of winning re-election. And that is an exaggeration of his chances... on the high side!
Trump approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=1;*;2&AZ=1;*;2&AR=0;;6&CA=0;;6&CO=1;;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;*;2&GA=1;*;2&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;*;2&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=0;;6&MA=1;;7&MI=0;;5&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=0;;5&NH=0;;5&NJ=0;;5&NM=0;;5&NY=1;;7&NC=1;*;2&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=0;;6&OR=0;;5&PA=0;;5&RI=0;;6&SC=0;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=0;;4&UT=0;;7&VT=0;;6&VA=0;;5&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=1;*;2&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 90
40-43% 13
under 40% 43
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
39 more states, and 399 electoral votes to go!
Florida could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win. On the other hand the Democratic nominee could lose Florida and still win.
Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.
Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-...ff7b080001
Another key state:
Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)
Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)
Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?
Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49
Net: Trump 39, someone else 57
Results
Wisconsin has seemed like the tipping point for 2020 since Election Night 2016, and if only 39% of the people now intend to vote for Trump with just over 21 months to go... there's a better chance of a World Series between the Detroit Kittens and the Miami Minnows in 2020 than that Trump wins re-election in 2020.
A Colorado poll had only 36% of state voters admitting that they would vote for Trump. I may want to create a map suggesting how willing people are to vote for Trump. I have had 100-DIS as a Trump ceiling in the event that he should be an effective fund-raiser and campaigner and have a good electoral machine behind him. He would have to be as good at such as "Mister Unmentionable" at such to get re-elected.
Yes, we are accustomed to seeing Presidents re-elected, but it now looks as if Obama will be the last such President to be re-elected until at least 2024.
I have a huge span in pink coloration because in theory anyone who has at least 43% approval in a state has a chance of winning that state. I now have 90 of 138 electoral votes already in that category. Trump will win if he picks up everything in pink, but he must really pick up everything. I thought that the asterisk would separate states with something like 46-48 from a state with 44-52 like Wisconsin, "46-48" suggesting that if most things go right for Trump, he wins the state. Ignoring Iowa, which is going to vote with Wisconsin, and Alaska as too small to matter and a seeming outlier, I see five coin tosses. If it comes down to five simple coin tosses as 50% chances (which is probably an overestimation of Trump chances), then Trump has one chance in winning re-election if you hand him everything that he won by more than 3% that is not yet on this map, then he has one chance in 32 of winning re-election. And that is an exaggeration of his chances... on the high side!
Trump approval:
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 90
40-43% 13
under 40% 43
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
39 more states, and 399 electoral votes to go!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.