03-14-2019, 09:14 AM
Gallup, March 1-10, 1039 adults (prior poll Feb. 12-28)
Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 57 (+3)
He cannot be re-elected with those numbers.
Sometimes one gets to see two different polling takes on the same state within two weeks, and without an intervening event. News involving the President has been on the quiet side, But while Quinnipiac concurs with "St. Leo" on disapproval, it has even lower approval.
...and
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-deta...aseID=2606
Disapproval matters more, but the map changes. Notice that "Definitely will not vote for Trump" is practically identical to disapproval. Does this President have any remaining reservoir of good will with the American electorate? Apparently not enough. Can he build some? It is almost certainly too late. The Trump Presidency is all about you-know-who, and it ain't you.
If anyone thinks, "But Obama got re-elected" -- Obama rationally countered the calumnies of his opponents on the way to re-election. Trump is getting it just as hard from Democrats as Obama got it from Republicans and their front groups. He is a delusional midget in contrast to Obama.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=1;*;2&AZ=1;*;2&AR=0;;6&CA=1;;7&CO=1;;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;5&GA=1;*;2&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;*;2&KS=0;;5&KY=2;;7&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;7&MA=1;;7&MI=1;*;2&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;5&NH=1;;7&NJ=0;;5&NM=0;;5&NY=1;;7&NC=1;;5&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=0;;6&OR=0;;5&PA=0;;5&RI=0;;6&SC=2;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=2;;2&UT=1;;2&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;7&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=1;*;2&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 69
40-43% 63
under 40% 122
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!
Florida will not decide the Presidency in 2020. I see Wisconsin as the tipping-point state in 2020, and there nothing seems to have gone well for Trump since the 2016 election. The incumbent Republican was defeated in a bid for a third term. The incumbent Democratic Senator won by a landslide. The majority of the House vote went to Democrats statewide even if gerrymandering aids the Republicans in maintaining their majority in the House delegation. Approval ratings and especially disapproval ratings have been dismal in Wisconsin for the President.
I checked 270towin.com to determine how Trump can win the Presidency if all of his wins with less than 10% except Texas are up for grabs. He loses every state and district that he lost in 2016, all of which showed approval numbers of 40% or lower and disapproval in excess of 55% throughout 2018 according to Gallup polling data. His best prospect in that group is Nevada, where his approval was at 40% and disapproval was at 55%. He will not win Nevada with numbers like that.
Trump automatically loses 232 electoral votes even in states that he barely lost in 2016. If one won the previous election just barely, then some of the bare losses from the previous election must be in play. They aren't. Ruling out unlikely ties that mostly involve odd combinations, I find that if I have Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as possible losses for Trump in 2020, I find 59 possible combinations involving a minimum number of states and districts going against him ((thus if Trump loses Florida and Pennsylvania, nothing else will matter) and 29 possible wins for him.
(In case you were wondering about Texas, Texas gets the Democrat to exactly 270 even if Trump sweeps all else that is an imaginable win for him).
Florida leaves little leeway. Trump could lose Florida and Iowa and still win, but that makes little sense because he is not going to win Iowa
without also losing something else. Trump must practically sweep the board should he lose Florida, his fourth-weakest win in 2016. Florida and any combination of nine more electoral votes wins the election for the Democrat outright.
Florida looks good for the Governor and both Senators, all Republicans. Trump loses on climate change, guns, and offshore drilling, issues on which he is resolute.
Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 57 (+3)
He cannot be re-elected with those numbers.
Sometimes one gets to see two different polling takes on the same state within two weeks, and without an intervening event. News involving the President has been on the quiet side, But while Quinnipiac concurs with "St. Leo" on disapproval, it has even lower approval.
Quote:With a big thumbs down from women, Florida voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 53 percent approval rating. Women give Trump a negative 35 - 59 percent approval rating. Men are tied 47 - 47 percent.
...and
Quote:A bare majority of Florida voters, 51 percent, say they definitely won't vote for President Donald Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 31 percent say they definitely would vote for the president and 14 percent say they would consider voting for him.
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-deta...aseID=2606
Disapproval matters more, but the map changes. Notice that "Definitely will not vote for Trump" is practically identical to disapproval. Does this President have any remaining reservoir of good will with the American electorate? Apparently not enough. Can he build some? It is almost certainly too late. The Trump Presidency is all about you-know-who, and it ain't you.
If anyone thinks, "But Obama got re-elected" -- Obama rationally countered the calumnies of his opponents on the way to re-election. Trump is getting it just as hard from Democrats as Obama got it from Republicans and their front groups. He is a delusional midget in contrast to Obama.
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 69
40-43% 63
under 40% 122
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!
Florida will not decide the Presidency in 2020. I see Wisconsin as the tipping-point state in 2020, and there nothing seems to have gone well for Trump since the 2016 election. The incumbent Republican was defeated in a bid for a third term. The incumbent Democratic Senator won by a landslide. The majority of the House vote went to Democrats statewide even if gerrymandering aids the Republicans in maintaining their majority in the House delegation. Approval ratings and especially disapproval ratings have been dismal in Wisconsin for the President.
I checked 270towin.com to determine how Trump can win the Presidency if all of his wins with less than 10% except Texas are up for grabs. He loses every state and district that he lost in 2016, all of which showed approval numbers of 40% or lower and disapproval in excess of 55% throughout 2018 according to Gallup polling data. His best prospect in that group is Nevada, where his approval was at 40% and disapproval was at 55%. He will not win Nevada with numbers like that.
Trump automatically loses 232 electoral votes even in states that he barely lost in 2016. If one won the previous election just barely, then some of the bare losses from the previous election must be in play. They aren't. Ruling out unlikely ties that mostly involve odd combinations, I find that if I have Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as possible losses for Trump in 2020, I find 59 possible combinations involving a minimum number of states and districts going against him ((thus if Trump loses Florida and Pennsylvania, nothing else will matter) and 29 possible wins for him.
(In case you were wondering about Texas, Texas gets the Democrat to exactly 270 even if Trump sweeps all else that is an imaginable win for him).
Florida leaves little leeway. Trump could lose Florida and Iowa and still win, but that makes little sense because he is not going to win Iowa
without also losing something else. Trump must practically sweep the board should he lose Florida, his fourth-weakest win in 2016. Florida and any combination of nine more electoral votes wins the election for the Democrat outright.
Florida looks good for the Governor and both Senators, all Republicans. Trump loses on climate change, guns, and offshore drilling, issues on which he is resolute.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.