Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[tg63]

(10-07-2019, 04:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Somebody fills the state polling data. There are no huge surprises here except for Alaska and Kansas.

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...d&map=true

The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):

Quote:Nevada: 38/59
Arizona: 45/52
Colorado: 39/58
Texas: 48/48
Kansas: 48/48
Iowa: 44/53
Minnesota: 40/58
Wisconsin: 45/52
Michigan: 44/53
Ohio: 48/48
Florida: 47/50
Georgia: 46/51
North Carolina: 45/52
Virginia: 40/57
Pennsylvania: 42/54
New Hampshire: 38/59
Maine: 41/56

Nationally, Trump's approval is 42/55.

I have seen relatively few recent statewide polls (VA, WI, OH) newer than these. It's good for some fill-ins and updates 

Others to fill in 
AL  57-40
AS  47-50
AR 62-35
CA 28-70
CT 34-62
DE 40-57
DC (don't be stupid, probably 15-83 at best for Trump)
HI 25-72
ID 59-38
IL 34-64
IN 52-45
KY 61-35
LA 53-44
MD 28-68
MA 24-73
MS 53-44
MO 52-44
MT 51-45
NJ 36-61
NM 40-56
ND 65-32
NE 54-43
OK 62-34
OR 33-64
RI 33-64
SC 49-47
SD 58-39 
TN 55-42
UT 49-45
VT 26-71
WA 32-65
WV 67-30
WY 65-31






Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54% 
55% or higher

Can anybody suggest to me why Trump can win if his disapproval numbers are 50% or higher in so many states barring miracles, fraud, or force?

Sure ...  a few reasons ... mathematically speaking, if the margin of error takes him below 50% in several of these, well, that would matter. Also, there are >12 months to go ... lots can change between now & then. Also, the challenger hasn't been finalized, people polled may have a different position when it goes from a theoretical question to a practical one. This is just off the top of my head.