Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

This is not so much approval and disapproval of the President put instead a potential projection of an electoral collapse for the President. When the Pope makes statements more credible to Americans (including non-Catholics) than the President ... and the Queen of England deep into her nineties is far more coherent and rational... then the President has a huge problem.


With several caveats (these polls involve on-line, self-selected polling that may understate populations unlikely to be on the Internet or to not trust polling, such as older, poorer white people of limited education -- and I say this because other ethnic groups don't have such a variance from other voters in their groups), here is one near-50-state poll involving the Internet.

Source:https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

Note that a Trump collapse looks much like this.



Note that Vermont, the District of Columbia, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming are not polled. I have educated guesses about the districts. But we need not be stupid about those electoral bailiwicks. Trump will be absolutely crushed in Vermont and DEE CEE (deep red) and will win North Dakota (medium blue), South Dakota (medium blue), and Wyoming firmly (deep blue).

Biden 55% or higher
Biden 50-54%
Biden ahead with 49% or less
ties are in white
Trump ahead with less than 49%
Trump 50-55%
Trump 55% or higher


...I look at this and see Trump losing to Biden, Biden getting absolute majorities of 50% or more in enough states in which to get elected. Biden also wins every state that Hillary Clinton won outright -- except Texas, which appears as a tie. Biden also wins Louisiana and Montana, which to Trump by more than 10% in 2016. Sure, it is only a 1% lead for Biden... but I have my suspicion that Trump is in trouble in Louisiana more than in any other state in the Deep or Mountain South (except Georgia) because Trump may have lost a constituency which swung from D to R about twenty years ago. It is almost exclusively associated with Louisiana: Cajuns. They seem to have Catholicism heavily entrenched in their culture. The Pope may have fewer military divisions than the President, but he certainly has shown far more credibility than the President on COVID-19. COVID-19 has ravaged Louisiana more than many other states.

There are other Catholic constituencies that can be swing voters: Polish- and Italian-Americans in Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; Cuban-Americans in Florida, and perhaps Cajuns in Louisiana. People who more trust the Pope than the President are big trouble for the President.

This could be ahead of a current reality... but there is plenty of time for this sort of reality to emerge and little time for the President to undo his damage.