Why do S&H start Civic generations so early?

[David Horn]

(08-09-2021, 11:04 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(08-09-2021, 09:28 AM)David Horn Wrote: Have at it! 

Well, how about population growth? The apparent shortening of the saeculum corresponds pretty well to the start of the huge population spike of the last 200 years. Perhaps when each successive generation is larger than the one before it, the generations find it easier to sweep their predecessors out of the way as they enter the next phase of life. The best thing to point to as an example of this is probably how the small size of the Lost Generation allowed the Missionary Generation to remain "in power" unusually long, though this didn't seem to affect the boundaries of the relevant turnings much.

Every generation, influenced by its own lived experience, believes itself to be "the best" or "the one that's got it right," so it stands to reason that every generation would hold on to what power it has as long as possible and would "rule" either until becoming simply too old to do so or until being forced out by the following generation in a large cultural shift. Seemingly because of population growth, being forced out has (with a single exception) been the norm for two saecula now, and it seems like 15-20 years is about the fastest that that can happen.
 
The question then becomes this: as countries finish the demographic transition and return to stable or even declining populations, will the saeculum lengthen again? Or has forced replacement become the norm, which will be held in place by the fast pace of modern society and the memory of those living currently? I don't know, but Japan seems like the place to watch in the coming decades for any hints.

All good points and hard to dismiss out of hand.  Then again, there are so many possible impacts that the entire saecular order may no longer apply (we've discussed that too).  My personal beliefs involve the immeging Industrial Age and the post-industrial periods that followed.  It's hard to model something that was more or less static for millennia, then went full dynamic for 250 years.  ANd we'renotgoing to be here long enough for the dustto settle, ifit ever will.  Change seems to be the norm now.