It's a Model, Not Prophecy!

[David Horn]

(02-12-2017, 06:09 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't see knowledge of the cycle as an issue at all.  It's not like anyone knows the cycle or what turning we are in.

Steve Bannon knows, though how much that matters is hard to fathom at this point. He is certainly trying to drive the narrative in a favored direction, but Trump is so unpredictable, it may make no difference. The background noise level is so high, it's hard to make sense of anything.

Mikebert Wrote:Back in 2000 some thought a 4T may be beginning with the election going to something who did not win the most votes (for the first time in 112 years).  When 911 happen many more thought that's it.  Then came the financial crisis and 2001 was dropped for 2008.  The financial crisis is the biggest recent event.  Suppose a terrorist sets of a nuke in NYC, or we get another financial crisis and this time we get 20% unemployment.  Might not 2008 become another 2001?  A 3T event that looked like it might be a trigger but wasn't.

I agree. I'm not sure what nearly two decades of crisis-like events means in this context ... at least for now. Knowing 50 years from now is nice, in the academic sense, but useless to anyone today.

Mikebert Wrote:Here's the problem.  The 4T start is supposed to start a sequence of related events that form a narrative. This is why it is called a trigger. The 1773 Boston Tea Party was a milder event than the 1770 Boston Massacre. Yet is was the former that started the a sequence of events directly leading to the formation of a new nation:  Coercive Acts, 1st Continental Congress, insurgent takeover of domestic armed forces, outbreak of violence, formal declaration of intent to secede, full scale war, post-war crisis and rebellion, formation of a unified polity with the Constitution.  This series of events forms a cohesive narrative* for the crisis.

All true, but less important in this modern era. Looking for trends is really hard when the pace of events is so high, and what qualifies as significant is still TBD.

Mikebert Wrote:So, now that Trump has been elected, why does he not start his own narrative, as opposed to being part of a larger Obama narrative?

He is, after a fashion. Of course, his version of a narrative involves a lot of false-flagging to keep people off balance. He's operating like a CEO, not a POTUS.