03-15-2017, 09:34 PM
(03-15-2017, 11:07 AM)SomeGuy (to Ragnarök_62) Wrote:Quote:1. Are we destined to become the modern-day Romans?
We've been modeling ourselves off them since the Revolution. That's why we have a Senate, and the early government buildings, state and federal, were largely done in neoclassical style. In terms of parallels, I'd say (with a tip of the hat to Spengler and Toynbee) that we are more around the era of the Grachii and Sulla than the fall of the Empire.
Quote:2. If the feds secede more power to the states, could the former Confederacy basically have carte blanche to restore at least some aspects of Jim Crow, or will the feds retain enough clout for this not to happen?
(personal questions excised due to irrelevance)
Quote:3. Stopping behavoirs which are unsustainable? You mean like "free love" become unsustainable with the advent of the AIDS scare? Would the sexual revolution have ended even if there were no AIDS or equivalent?
No, he and I both were discussing environmental/economic practices more than purely social ones. As for the specific point raised, you could argue that things like gay marriage and the whole transgender thingamaroo are part of it, suggesting it hasn't ended at all. If you mean the "free love" thing specifically, while it is difficult to speak authoritatively on hypotheticals, I imagine it would have petered out on its own anyways. The history of "free love" type communities in the 19th century, for one, suggest that it isn't really a stable social model.
1. There's one big difference between ourselves and the Romans: we abolished slavery. Slavery created its own pathology; it thwarted enterprise and innovation; it established a class of people of suspect loyalty to the political order; it allowed extreme concentration of wealth, power, and privilege. All such pathology is possible without slavery, but it is never so certain except in a slave-owning society.
Of course the constitutional Republic is in danger from inside because the economic elites have become consummately selfish and ruthless; those elites seek crushing power over everyone else and could be in a position in which to get it. Except for not having slavery we might be in the equivalent of the end stage of the Roman Republic.
Note well that Arnold Toynbee recognized the start of the rot in the Roman polity in late Republican times, and not during the Empire. A good Emperor might force some reforms that either stalled or even (if only for that Emperor's reign) reversed the rot to a slight degree, but then would come another Emperor who inflicted grave misrule. After Marcus Aurelius, Commodus.
It could be that our institutions are designed for an agrarian society in which the needs for government are small, in which there are no giant cities, and in which the technology is still pre-industrial. Have our institutions changed too much -- or too little?
Obviously we are far from the Fall of the Empire, when the institutions of the Empire are no longer of value to those wielding the power. We are not yet in the empire. Because unelected lobbyists wield real power in the legislative branch in the federal and most State governments, our legislative system in the federal system and many states is no longer representative. We did elect the President, but it is entirely possible that one Party can decide that it will never lose another election that it cannot afford to lose, in which case democracy is dead.
Donald Trump is a break with the traditions of (1) keeping business and government separate, and (2) political leaders not working hand-in-glove with a foreign power. Should the 2020 election entail a Sino-Russian dispute and the Democrats regain power with the aid of China because Democrats more support free trade, then we still have the problem of leadership owing its success to a foreign power hostile to democracy.
2. "Jim Crow" is dead. Political reality in most of the South is that the Republican Party is the White People's Party and the Democratic Party is the Black People's Party. Tribal slits in politics practically ensure machine government even in the tiniest of hick towns. Such ensures that government will look like the majority even if the majority is only 51% of the electorate, and that because of sure victories because of ethnic identity, corrupt and incompetent politicians can get away with corruption and incompetence indefinitely. Patronage becomes the norm. The solution for corruption and incompetence is obvious enough: vote the bums out. The right way in which to deal with corrupt black Democrats in public office is to vote for the white Republican as an alternative. The right way to deal with corrupt and incompetent white Republicans in public office should be obvious.
As usual we trade one set of problems for another.
3. Ragnarök_62 has this right. It may be difficult at times to determine what a bad habit is -- but reckless sexuality went from having the danger of an unwelcome pregnancy to becoming a vector for some horrible diseases. "Go monogamous" or "always use a condom" might solve the problem of STDs. Whether reckless sexuality might tear at the social fabric is a matter of debate. Does anyone know? It is natural that people would want to have exclusive relationships and would be offended when such is not the case.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.