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The youngest Boomers will retire eventually—are Gen-X ready? There are reasons to think the long-awaited, wholesale tip-over of power, from Baby Boom to Gen-X, will happen next year, in 2021.
My article, Generational tipping point: 2021, explains the historical reasoning.
This aims to be a serious, scientific article, so please critique!
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(12-08-2020, 06:06 PM)MarkDBlackwell Wrote: The youngest Boomers will retire eventually—are Gen-X ready? There are reasons to think the long-awaited, wholesale tip-over of power, from Baby Boom to Gen-X, will happen next year, in 2021.
My article, Generational tipping point: 2021, explains the historical reasoning.
This aims to be a serious, scientific article, so please critique!
I checked your link, and all I can say about the tipping point for Boomers abandoning roles in the upper echelons of business: not a moment too soon. Elite Boomers got everything on a silver platter, devoured the caviar and lobster, got drunk on the champagne, and kept the silver platter. They left everyone else with macaroni and cheese on dirty paper plates.
Although non-elite Boomers could keep their heads on straight, because the normal rules of business mandate submissive deference to bosses and customers. Elite Boomers chose to go to MBA school at which they learned that the rewards of success impressed people even more than wealth-creating activity such as starting small businesses or doing industrial labor. Those MBA grads largely shut others out of any pathway to success that would allow them to show their competence, dedication, and imagination. The created low, rigid ceilings in organizations that did not then have them. Consider the typical GI executive in a small manufacturing firm. He (the GI's allowed success only for men, in general) may have started in the mail room or on the shop floor and demonstrated that he was capable of something else... and got a chance as a supervisor or a salesman. With dedication to achievement and with overall competence he solved problems at every turn and found himself in his fifties in an executive position. He was making perhaps ten times as much as someone holding a job on the shop floor or in the mail room, but... well, ten times what such a worker got was more than adequate. What was he going to do at age fifty? Get a sports car or a yacht? Buy a mansion? About as he and his wife of similar age were celebrating their thirtieth wedding anniversary he had never gotten fully into the habit of conspicuous consumption that is a time-consuming and asset-devouring diversion from creating wealth. He was approaching retirement and he knew it. He was more likely to buy a whole-life insurance policy (which is one of the most reliable sources of capital for investment) than an expensive house or car.
The Boomer executive was getting his high income by age 40, and was well into a sybaritic lifestyle, which was easy enough with the gigantic salaries for a sort of executive nomenklatura responsible largely to itself so long as it maximizes profits. The secret, of course, was treating others badly.
Generation X will not be able to get away with as much.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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12-09-2020, 04:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2020, 05:04 PM by Tim Randal Walker.)
Don't recall the details, but awhile back there was a very generalized discussion about this. How an aging generation's influence on public life fades away.
I recall an article that described age 80 as the "Fragility Barrier"-by that time a person's influence is likely to be confined to the grandparent role.
Thanks for delving into greater detail, MarkDBlackwell.
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I should probably explain what I mean by "Fragility Barrier".
If one's adult physiological peak is in one's twenties, you will have aged half a century past your physiological peak by the time you reach your 80th birthday. Even if you retain your mental acuity into old age, by your 80th birthday your body will be quite fragile...and its decline is likely to leave your body with little capacity for work.
After that, a particular cohort will experience a sharply accelerating death rate, with only a small percentage seeing their hundredth birthdate.
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(12-08-2020, 06:06 PM)MarkDBlackwell Wrote: The youngest Boomers will retire eventually—are Gen-X ready? There are reasons to think the long-awaited, wholesale tip-over of power, from Baby Boom to Gen-X, will happen next year, in 2021.
My article, Generational tipping point: 2021, explains the historical reasoning.
This aims to be a serious, scientific article, so please critique!
World War II didn't end simply because some generation reached a tipping point. It ended because by 1945, the Axis powers collapsed. If they had more resources or otherwise been stronger, it would have gone on longer. Of course, the generations being where they were allowed it to end - and if the Axis powers had collapsed too early, the Allies might have gone on to fight the Soviet Union.
But what I'm saying is that some huge earth shaking conflict is not going to just stop because the generations are now aligned properly. It has to play itself out. World War I managed to happen in the middle of an unraveling. In the current situation, nothing has been resolved in the U.S. The crisis can't stop, it has to blow up and get bigger and bigger until the situation resolves itself.
If you're predicting that this must happen soon, then things are about to get very bad, very fast. Along the lines of the U.S. Civil War.
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Certain roles obviously end earlier for some groups of people than for others. Professional athletes typically have their peak years of performance in their late twenties. Reflexes slow, and injuries take their toll. The typical NFL running back has about six excellent years before his career starts to fade. Most professional baseball careers are over at age 32. Ballerinas? That is as much athleticism as art... and it shows in career length. High-fashion models? Around age 30, kids more stunning are challenging for the roles that the veterans have... the ideal age for beauty is typically about 20 (just look at the profiles of the new Playmates of the Month). Speaking of sex appeal, it matters far more for women than for men, and this applies to film and music stars. If one is in these activities one had better have a back-up plan. So if you have and a marginal role in the NBA for three years or so, then you might consider going into sales, as in cars or real estate. In such an activity as ballet, those who can no longer do... teach.
Jobs that are far more athletic than cerebral end when the advantage of experience isn't enough to fend off the challenge of younger and stronger (but wet-behind-the-years) whipper-snappers...
People are staying active intellectually and physically longer, but there are things clearly connected to age. Add to this, some people are better at adapting over time.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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MarkDBlackwell does a good job of correlating aging with the decline of a generations's archetypal endowment. Age 71 would correlate with the last gasp of that archetypal influence.
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We have had octogenarian and nonagenarian people in creative activities and politics. But in general, almost all careers are over at age 65. Most businesses are looking for five-year-or-longer solutions for practically all jobs, including even minimum-wage jobs. The surest way to not get hired is to be honest about a job being a stepping-stone to something better. Even a fast-food place might want someone "working his way through college just to get a little knowledge that he'll never get to use again"... to consider working there for a while after graduation, especially to supplement the low pay that many college grads get. The last forty years have been a spectacular time to be in management, corporate law, or the upper echelons of the entertainment industry, as good as usual to be a high-level professional, and not so great for anything else. Donald Trump exploited the resentment of this situation but had no solution except to praise vulgarity and ignorance.
The elderly worker is a risky proposition when there are young, energetic, flexible workers who believe that if they work hard enough with extraordinary diligence and have low expectations for now (it doesn't take long to get disabused of such a myth with the low, rigid glass ceilings in most entities) that things will turn out all right. (Over the last forty years or so the ethos has been to pay workers inadequately and let them go deeply in debt in something of a revival of peonage... what one would expect of a 3T ethos, as for agricultural workers and most industrial workers in the 1910's and 1920's). The exception is the exceptional creative person, entrepreneur, or professional.
In some endeavors, careers are over by age 35 - especially athletic, modeling, and some acting careers. If you are going to go by baseball careers and when the players were appearing as rookies, were at their peak, and then were gone, you would find that the youngest players are about 20 and the oldest are about 40. The very oldest and very youngers are the most talented. Only a very rare person is polished enough to get a regular role in the majors while in his teens (Ted Williams) and only a very rare person has enough remaining skills to be adequate to play the game at age 40 (such as Ted Williams). Pitchers may stick around longer than position players if they have a brutal fastball (Nolan Ryan, probably Justin Verlander) or a tricky pitch that they can throw for long time (the knuckleball of Phil Niekro). All in all, someone who is just a bit above average at age 30 will be marginal at age 32 and will be doing something other than playing major-league baseball at age 34. Coaching? Managing? Broadcasting?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-10-2020, 02:07 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: MarkDBlackwell does a good job of correlating aging with the decline of a generations's archetypal endowment. Age 71 would correlate with the last gasp of that archetypal influence.
Tell that to our august legislators in Congress. Both houses are now more geriatric than they have been at any time in history. Worse: longevity in ones seat devolves to high power committee chairs and ranking memberships, with too many already occupied by people in their 80s.
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(12-11-2020, 12:19 PM)David Horn Wrote: (12-10-2020, 02:07 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: MarkDBlackwell does a good job of correlating aging with the decline of a generations's archetypal endowment. Age 71 would correlate with the last gasp of that archetypal influence.
Tell that to our august legislators in Congress. Both houses are now more geriatric than they have been at any time in history. Worse: longevity in ones seat devolves to high power committee chairs and ranking memberships, with too many already occupied by people in their 80s.
We are seeing the last act of the Silent in public life, and that includes the surprising ascent to the Presidency of Joe Biden. One must recognize that he has only one thing going against him as President, and that is age. He is the same age as Dwight Eisenhower was when he died. Yes, he is past "life expectancy at birth". He seems unusually healthy and fit (including mentally) for someone his age; he is in far better shape than the degenerate that we now have as President.
The "geriatric" part of American politics is what has been around for a long time: Pelosi, McConnell, Grassley, Feinstein... they are living and active in American politics on time not really theirs. But know well: those and Biden are the last acts of the Silent Generation in politics.
Note also that the first wave of the Boom Generation is also in the "geriatric" phase of life. That now includes the three Boomer Presidents, all born in 1946.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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12-14-2020, 09:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2020, 09:34 PM by Tim Randal Walker.)
Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
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(12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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(12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
How well do we really know Kamala Harris?
I can imagine Joe Biden resigning for reasons of health and being satisfied that he fulfilled his critical role in American history, especially should that diagnosis suggest him losing his ability to perform the Office of the Presidency. He seems to take oaths and scientific reality (which I assume includes medical diagnoses) seriously. There is hardly an incoming President on whom we have a more complete knowledge of his past through his voting record.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
(12-16-2020, 10:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
How well do we really know Kamala Harris?
I can imagine Joe Biden resigning for reasons of health and being satisfied that he fulfilled his critical role in American history, especially should that diagnosis suggest him losing his ability to perform the Office of the Presidency. He seems to take oaths and scientific reality (which I assume includes medical diagnoses) seriously. There is hardly an incoming President on whom we have a more complete knowledge of his past through his voting record.
If Biden retires mid-term, we know exactly what one of the crises of this 4T would be.
Kamala Harris had very little support in the presidential primaries. She's not only despised by anyone left of Kissinger, but the right hate her as well.
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12-18-2020, 06:54 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-18-2020, 10:23 PM by David Horn.)
(12-17-2020, 02:19 PM)User3451 Wrote: If Biden retires mid-term, we know exactly what one of the crises of this 4T would be.
Kamala Harris had very little support in the presidential primaries. She's not only despised by anyone left of Kissinger, but the right hate her as well.
This I seriously doubt. I can agree that she's unlikely to be elected on her own, but it's rare indeed for a sitting President to be denied the nomination of his or her party. If that leads to another one-term GOP Presidency, then we're in for a hell-of-a-ride. If it's Trump 2.0, I'll be surprised. He's now hated by more people than dislike Harris, so he may be the one candidate she can actually beat.
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(12-17-2020, 02:19 PM)User3451 Wrote: (12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
(12-16-2020, 10:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
How well do we really know Kamala Harris?
I can imagine Joe Biden resigning for reasons of health and being satisfied that he fulfilled his critical role in American history, especially should that diagnosis suggest him losing his ability to perform the Office of the Presidency. He seems to take oaths and scientific reality (which I assume includes medical diagnoses) seriously. There is hardly an incoming President on whom we have a more complete knowledge of his past through his voting record.
If Biden retires mid-term, we know exactly what one of the crises of this 4T would be.
Kamala Harris had very little support in the presidential primaries. She's not only despised by anyone left of Kissinger, but the right hate her as well.
At least the Crisis of 2020 is not a Second Term of Donald Trump in which he executes the Dictators' Playbook, this time competently, as with a secret police responsible to him alone, laudatory praise from anyone who whores away journalistic ethics for survival and lucre, government that does patronage at the expense of a free market (I think of him buying the farm vote with huge agricultural subsidies after he alienated them with a trade war about two years earlier), maybe a politicized youth group analogous to Commie Pioneers or Hitlerjugend of you-know-where, vote-rigging, maybe some massacres of opponents... Castro and Pinochet may have been quite different in style and official ideology, but their techniques were much the same. Run afoul of the Great and Infallible Leader and make sure that you have a ready exit or else you might end up dying horribly.
Can she grow into the job in the event of something going very wrong? Maybe.
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(12-18-2020, 06:54 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-17-2020, 02:19 PM)User3451 Wrote: If Biden retires mid-term, we know exactly what one of the crises of this 4T would be.
Kamala Harris had very little support in the presidential primaries. She's not only despised by anyone left of Kissinger, but the right hate her as well.
This I seriously doubt. I can agree that she's unlikely to be elected on her own, but it's rare indeed for a sitting President to be denied the nomination of his or her party. If that leads to another one-term GOP Presidency, then we're in for a hell-of-a-ride. If it's Trump 2.0, I'll be surprised. He's now hated by more people than dislike Harris, so he may be the one candidate she can actually beat.
The American right (the vast majority of today's Republican base) doesn't hate Trump. The Washington elite do but no one on the American right cares about them these days. Like I said, let the circus begin and see the response and see how much of the Democratic base is left standing after four years of turmoil. I believe the Republican states will break with the Democratic states and run independently as a group as DC turns into a shit show.
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(12-16-2020, 10:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
How well do we really know Kamala Harris?
I can imagine Joe Biden resigning for reasons of health and being satisfied that he fulfilled his critical role in American history, especially should that diagnosis suggest him losing his ability to perform the Office of the Presidency. He seems to take oaths and scientific reality (which I assume includes medical diagnoses) seriously. There is hardly an incoming President on whom we have a more complete knowledge of his past through his voting record.
You don't know her very well. You should know everything about her since she was the one that you were really voting for in 2020. You listened, you agreed and you didn't care that Biden was showing signs of dementia and voted for him anyway.
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(12-16-2020, 10:25 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (12-15-2020, 11:34 AM)David Horn Wrote: (12-14-2020, 09:21 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Joe Biden was born Nov. 20, 1942. A very late Silent, and already 78 years old. He will almost certainly be the only Silent president, as even the youngest of their generation is near their 80th birthday.
I'm not convinced that Biden will see the end of his one and only term. He seems hale and hearty, but the Presidency is an enormous burden that may weigh too heavily on a man his age.
How well do we really know Kamala Harris?
I can imagine Joe Biden resigning for reasons of health and being satisfied that he fulfilled his critical role in American history, especially should that diagnosis suggest him losing his ability to perform the Office of the Presidency. He seems to take oaths and scientific reality (which I assume includes medical diagnoses) seriously. There is hardly an incoming President on whom we have a more complete knowledge of his past through his voting record.
You don't know her very well. You should know everything about her since she was the one that you were really voting for in 2020. You listened, you agreed and you didn't care that Biden was showing signs of dementia and voted for him anyway.
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