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Neil Howe In The News
#21
David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?
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#22
(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?

This time may be unique for having so many major challenges needing immediate attention: inequality, racism, authoritarianism, climate and a pandemic.  Predicting when and how this all gets resolved is dicey at best.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#23
(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?

(08-03-2020, 10:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?

This time may be unique for having so many major challenges needing immediate attention: inequality, racism, authoritarianism, climate and a pandemic.  Predicting when and how this all gets resolved is dicey at best.

David, so true, and that’s what makes this multi-layered crisis a mega-crisis.  Not a meta-crisis.  That will be a climate change that morphs into a full-blown global emergency. But I think that comes with the next saeculum, though we should address the slow-boil of climate change now, to some extent. I actually think the next administration could address all of the crises you mention in one fell swoop, but I don’t think the political will is there yet for an all-encompassing Green New Deal.  But we will see.
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#24
History moves quickly in the final stage of a 4T. In early 1942 Americans had the great dread that as the Japanese seemed to be invincible in their conquests, and that it would not be long before Americans had to fight the Japanese in Australia. The Soviet Union was fighting for its very existence just west of Moscow. The Nazis seemed entrenched, possibly forever, along the "Atlantic Wall". By late 1944 Nazi Germany was obviously doomed, and most people recognized that "Japan, you're next" was no idle boast.

That is how wars go.

Politics? I predict that after Trump is defeated, America will turn to much-needed reforms at the least to humanize a capitalist order that has become at best a deceitful Vanity Fair and at worst threatens to become an aristocratic order in which birth is everything and talent is largely irrelevant.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#25
(08-03-2020, 07:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: History moves quickly in the final stage of a 4T. In early 1942 Americans had the great dread that as the Japanese seemed to be invincible in their conquests, and that it would not be long before Americans had to fight the Japanese in Australia. The Soviet Union was fighting for its very existence just west of Moscow. The Nazis seemed entrenched, possibly forever, along the "Atlantic Wall". By late 1944 Nazi Germany was obviously doomed, and most people recognized that "Japan, you're next" was no idle boast.

That is how wars go.

Politics? I predict that after Trump is defeated, America will turn to much-needed reforms at the least to humanize a capitalist order that has become at best a deceitful Vanity Fair and at worst threatens to become an aristocratic order in which birth is everything and talent is largely irrelevant.

I agree with your assessment that the latter part of a 4T seems to go faster than the first part. If S&H was right, we still have a decade to go, and this has already been a long year. Hopefully we manage to identify the root the problem and tackle it best we can. Climate change also cannot wait until the next 2T to be settled. I think we need institutions with real power to tackle this problem at its root, like carbon tax (corporate interests are way too strong right now to implement this), and a complete rethink of our energy and transport infrastructure.
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#26
(08-03-2020, 09:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(08-02-2020, 07:58 PM)RadianMay Wrote:
(08-02-2020, 06:01 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Does anyone want to speculate what his next book will be about? An updated “prophecy” about how the Fourth Turning crisis era may play out? Given how fast events seem to be unfolding now, by the time his next book comes to print, Howe may be a “a day late and a dollar short.’’ Or, his timing could prove to be a master stroke.

Or, how the first turning will turn out. We’ll see.

Of the two options, my money is on the First Turning story.

There's no possible way he could write a book about what the First Turning will be like, as nobody knows how the Crisis is going to end.  We might have a war against China, or against Russia, or a civil war, or a revolutionary war, or something else entirely.  The U.S. may not exist in anything like its current form by the next High.
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#27
(08-05-2020, 06:24 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 09:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(08-02-2020, 07:58 PM)RadianMay Wrote:
(08-02-2020, 06:01 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Does anyone want to speculate what his next book will be about? An updated “prophecy” about how the Fourth Turning crisis era may play out? Given how fast events seem to be unfolding now, by the time his next book comes to print, Howe may be a “a day late and a dollar short.’’ Or, his timing could prove to be a master stroke.

Or, how the first turning will turn out. We’ll see.

Of the two options, my money is on the First Turning story.

There's no possible way he could write a book about what the First Turning will be like, as nobody knows how the Crisis is going to end.  We might have a war against China, or against Russia, or a civil war, or a revolutionary war, or something else entirely.  The U.S. may not exist in anything like its current form by the next High.

None of that stopped Casandra from prophesying and it shouldn't stop Neil either.  I think he has a solid view of where this is going.  Taking a stand now is risky, but the rewards for being correct (or nearly so) are huge.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#28
(08-05-2020, 06:24 PM)Mickey123 Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 09:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(08-02-2020, 07:58 PM)RadianMay Wrote:
(08-02-2020, 06:01 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Does anyone want to speculate what his next book will be about? An updated “prophecy” about how the Fourth Turning crisis era may play out? Given how fast events seem to be unfolding now, by the time his next book comes to print, Howe may be a “a day late and a dollar short.’’ Or, his timing could prove to be a master stroke.

Or, how the first turning will turn out. We’ll see.

Of the two options, my money is on the First Turning story.

There's no possible way he could write a book about what the First Turning will be like, as nobody knows how the Crisis is going to end.  We might have a war against China, or against Russia, or a civil war, or a revolutionary war, or something else entirely.  The U.S. may not exist in anything like its current form by the next High.
You can rule out a revolutionary war since we are a firmly established nation at this point. We have a group of radical Leftists and a group of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats and a few million people with warped minds and few million criminals who need to be dealt with and eliminated. Easier said than done but that's the jest of it and I don't think it will take 60 some million American hardened individuals very long to accomplish the task.
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#29
(08-03-2020, 10:59 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?

(08-03-2020, 10:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and with the swift and very uncertain way that the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout are unfolding, Howe almost has to commit himself to updating the crisis era itself, don’t you think? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Peter Turchin also forecast things to come to a resolution by 2030?

This time may be unique for having so many major challenges needing immediate attention: inequality, racism, authoritarianism, climate and a pandemic.  Predicting when and how this all gets resolved is dicey at best.

David, so true, and that’s what makes this multi-layered crisis a mega-crisis.  Not a meta-crisis.  That will be a climate change that morphs into a full-blown global emergency. But I think that comes with the next saeculum, though we should address the slow-boil of climate change now, to some extent. I actually think the next administration could address all of the crises you mention in one fell swoop, but I don’t think the political will is there yet for an all-encompassing Green New Deal.  But we will see.
Does the direction of the wind or the size of the crowd ever change in Left field?
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#30
(08-03-2020, 09:24 PM)RadianMay Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 07:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: History moves quickly in the final stage of a 4T. In early 1942 Americans had the great dread that as the Japanese seemed to be invincible in their conquests, and that it would not be long before Americans had to fight the Japanese in Australia. The Soviet Union was fighting for its very existence just west of Moscow. The Nazis seemed entrenched, possibly forever, along the "Atlantic Wall". By late 1944 Nazi Germany was obviously doomed, and most people recognized that "Japan, you're next" was no idle boast.

That is how wars go.

Politics? I predict that after Trump is defeated, America will turn to much-needed reforms at the least to humanize a capitalist order that has become at best a deceitful Vanity Fair and at worst threatens to become an aristocratic order in which birth is everything and talent is largely irrelevant.

I agree with your assessment that the latter part of a 4T seems to go faster than the first part. If S&H was right, we still have a decade to go, and this has already been a long year. Hopefully we manage to identify the root the problem and tackle it best we can. Climate change also cannot wait until the next 2T to be settled. I think we need institutions with real power to tackle this problem at its root, like carbon tax (corporate interests are way too strong right now to implement this), and a complete rethink of our energy and transport infrastructure.
What If S&H were off by a decade and this is just the beginning and there's 20 more years of crisis to go? Me, I'd start fast and quickly settle our obvious differences here and then slow down and take our time with China. I'm sorry for interrupting the Liberal discussion, feel free to continue expressing wishful thoughts with other wishful thinkers and do your best to avoid me and ignore me as much as possible.
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#31
(09-12-2020, 01:26 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 09:24 PM)RadianMay Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 07:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: History moves quickly in the final stage of a 4T. In early 1942 Americans had the great dread that as the Japanese seemed to be invincible in their conquests, and that it would not be long before Americans had to fight the Japanese in Australia. The Soviet Union was fighting for its very existence just west of Moscow. The Nazis seemed entrenched, possibly forever, along the "Atlantic Wall". By late 1944 Nazi Germany was obviously doomed, and most people recognized that "Japan, you're next" was no idle boast.

That is how wars go.

Politics? I predict that after Trump is defeated, America will turn to much-needed reforms at the least to humanize a capitalist order that has become at best a deceitful Vanity Fair and at worst threatens to become an aristocratic order in which birth is everything and talent is largely irrelevant.

I agree with your assessment that the latter part of a 4T seems to go faster than the first part. If S&H was right, we still have a decade to go, and this has already been a long year. Hopefully we manage to identify the root the problem and tackle it best we can. Climate change also cannot wait until the next 2T to be settled. I think we need institutions with real power to tackle this problem at its root, like carbon tax (corporate interests are way too strong right now to implement this), and a complete rethink of our energy and transport infrastructure.
What If S&H were off by a decade and this is just the beginning and there's 20 more years of crisis to go? Me, I'd start fast and quickly settle our obvious differences here and then slow down and take our time with China. I'm sorry for interrupting the Liberal discussion, feel free to continue expressing wishful thoughts with other wishful thinkers and do your best to avoid me and ignore me as much as possible.

I definitely noticed the mood / attitude change in the public during the mid-00's.  I would tend to move more toward 2008 as our "1929" event, but we may have already been shifting before that.  Some have argued even sooner.

I also continue to see this crisis as a Cold Internal War in a longer four saeculum cycle...  Glorious Revolution (Cold Internal); American Revolution (Cold External - a proxy battle between England/France); American Civil (Hot Internal); WW2 (Hot External); and now back to Cold Internal.

When Howe suggests 2030 - I think that is an outlier.  The last Crisis was 1929-1946 (a very late 1929 and a very early 1946) - so 16-17 years.  So I am more apt to put a 1T by 2025.  No matter who wins, the odds of a Presidential change in the next four years is high; (edit) and the players certainly by 2024 will not have the same temperament. I would keep those seatbelts tight!! , but this coming election may be the epic apex of the current Cold Internal Crisis.  If its moving fast, 1T is coming fast.

(just to add... first Gen-X 1961 turns 60 in 2021... by 2026 its retirement time) I am 57.
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#32
(10-01-2020, 04:30 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I definitely noticed the mood / attitude change in the public during the mid-00's.  I would tend to move more toward 2008 as our "1929" event, but we may have already been shifting before that.  Some have argued even sooner.

I also continue to see this crisis as a Cold Internal War in a longer four saeculum cycle...  Glorious Revolution (Cold Internal); American Revolution (Cold External - a proxy battle between England/France); American Civil (Hot Internal); WW2 (Hot External); and now back to Cold Internal.

When Howe suggests 2030 - I think that is an outlier.  The last Crisis was 1929-1946 (a very late 1929 and a very early 1946) - so 16-17 years.  So I am more apt to put a 1T by 2025.  No matter who wins, the odds of a Presidential change in the next four years is high; (edit) and the players certainly by 2024 will not have the same temperament.  I would keep those seatbelts tight!! , but this coming election may be the epic apex of the current Cold Internal Crisis.  If its moving fast, 1T is coming fast.

(just to add... first Gen-X 1961 turns 60 in 2021... by 2026 its retirement time)  I am 57.

I'm interested in your take on a cold-internal crisis, because this is certainly the ACW without the war -- at least so far.   I also see this being an unresolved crisis, with some mighty important hangover issues needing resolution long before the next one. AGW is operating on physics, not politics, while growing inequality is fully political and being full ignored.  At some point, that has to change to avoid disaster. You're young enough to see it start and maybe end as well,  At most, I get to see the start.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
#33
(09-12-2020, 01:26 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 09:24 PM)RadianMay Wrote:
(08-03-2020, 07:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: History moves quickly in the final stage of a 4T. In early 1942 Americans had the great dread that as the Japanese seemed to be invincible in their conquests, and that it would not be long before Americans had to fight the Japanese in Australia. The Soviet Union was fighting for its very existence just west of Moscow. The Nazis seemed entrenched, possibly forever, along the "Atlantic Wall". By late 1944 Nazi Germany was obviously doomed, and most people recognized that "Japan, you're next" was no idle boast.

That is how wars go.

Politics? I predict that after Trump is defeated, America will turn to much-needed reforms at the least to humanize a capitalist order that has become at best a deceitful Vanity Fair and at worst threatens to become an aristocratic order in which birth is everything and talent is largely irrelevant.

I agree with your assessment that the latter part of a 4T seems to go faster than the first part. If S&H was right, we still have a decade to go, and this has already been a long year. Hopefully we manage to identify the root the problem and tackle it best we can. Climate change also cannot wait until the next 2T to be settled. I think we need institutions with real power to tackle this problem at its root, like carbon tax (corporate interests are way too strong right now to implement this), and a complete rethink of our energy and transport infrastructure.

What If S&H were off by a decade and this is just the beginning and there's 20 more years of crisis to go? Me, I'd start fast and quickly settle our obvious differences here and then slow down and take our time with China. I'm sorry for interrupting the Liberal discussion, feel free to continue expressing wishful thoughts with other wishful thinkers and do your best to avoid me and ignore me as much as possible.

It is possible to see the Crisis beginning as early as 2005, with the second war in Iraq going from the effort to overthrow Satan Hussein to a nasty stalemate fighting the ISIS insurgency in Iraq. That is also when Hurricane Katrina strikes an ill-prepared New Orleans. Then America has the worst economic meltdown in eighty years, one that at first looks much like the first year and a half of the 1929-1932 collapse. So the economic collapse is stalled and things go back somewhat back to normal. The economy grows out of a near-depression, but almost steadily the Hard Right takes over, culminating in the rise of Donald Trump. 

COVID-19 has already killed over 200,000 people in America, and it is not going to go away easily. Only a fool thinks that "like a miracle, it will magically disappear".

Guess what happened yesterday: President and First Lady Trump both tested positive for COVID-19. He had to cancel a rally. Now we know why. 

COVID-19 kills. I don't have to tell you except in clinical terms that Donald Trump is at risk due to age, obesity, and who knows what else. The White House could have a pair of ventilators fairly soon. None of that is magic. Only fools bet on miracles or live in ways that require miracles for survival.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#34
(10-01-2020, 09:45 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(10-01-2020, 04:30 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I definitely noticed the mood / attitude change in the public during the mid-00's.  I would tend to move more toward 2008 as our "1929" event, but we may have already been shifting before that.  Some have argued even sooner.

I also continue to see this crisis as a Cold Internal War in a longer four saeculum cycle...  Glorious Revolution (Cold Internal); American Revolution (Cold External - a proxy battle between England/France); American Civil (Hot Internal); WW2 (Hot External); and now back to Cold Internal.

When Howe suggests 2030 - I think that is an outlier.  The last Crisis was 1929-1946 (a very late 1929 and a very early 1946) - so 16-17 years.  So I am more apt to put a 1T by 2025.  No matter who wins, the odds of a Presidential change in the next four years is high; (edit) and the players certainly by 2024 will not have the same temperament.  I would keep those seatbelts tight!! , but this coming election may be the epic apex of the current Cold Internal Crisis.  If its moving fast, 1T is coming fast.

(just to add... first Gen-X 1961 turns 60 in 2021... by 2026 its retirement time)  I am 57.

I'm interested in your take on a cold-internal crisis, because this is certainly the ACW without the war -- at least so far.   I also see this being an unresolved crisis, with some mighty important hangover issues needing resolution long before the next one. AGW is operating on physics, not politics, while growing inequality is fully political and being full ignored.  At some point, that has to change to avoid disaster. You're young enough to see it start and maybe end as well,  At most, I get to see the start.

I have been mulling this question over.

I do not think the current crisis created the polarized views seen today.  They have always been there, buried just under the earth by establishment and political correctness.  But as distrust of institutions has evaporated into the current crisis, the old wounds have been layed bare, scratched and dirtied by the ideological death match of the boomers leading our world today.

When I talk to a hard conservative, they tell me they have not had a chance to prove their view of the world.  When I suggest there have been many Presidents representing their views, they tell me the other Presidents have taken their victories apart.  Its no wonder then there is a certain vengeance on Obamas victories.  While I have not talked to progressives on the same matter, I am sure they feel the attack on hard-won victories like health care and civil rights.  The democratization of news has only fanned the flames of both sides.  Its like two kids kicking down each others sand castles. and a crowd has formed.

The recent Netflix show "The Social Dilemma" expressed that everyone on social media has a different view of the world.   You and I see different articles on Facebook or Instagram.   In an effort to cater to stories that interest each viewer to maximize eyeball time and profit, contextual media has only served to minimize exposure to the wider range of available ideas.    This is not new.  While I have not studied, no doubt through a wide range of writings, newspapers, and other technologies, the diversification of world view has existed;  and in other times newsreels or Walter Cronkite served to unify one world view.  Same thing, different time.

How this resolves?   I do believe 2020 is the last deathmatch boomer election (understanding that Biden is Nov 1942 and on the cusp).  

I think we have just passed the tipping point of the 4T.  The last of our institutions has fallen - our trust in health and the police and the post office and even likely the Supreme Court.  What worked for Trump in 2016 will not work today - we have already knocked down everything. Their law and order strategy is just kicking at ghosts.  

The polls are now tipping fast.  CNN Poll Biden +16 Nationally.  Average polls closing in on +10.   This is no longer an ideology-driven election - that is now noise.  Many centrist Republicans, for which I will count myself, have joined the Biden side.  I think people have tired of kicking sandcastles and are now just looking for stability to find solutions and ideas needed to build the world anew. 

This is not only counted in politics, but in culture - Who won AGT? - a spoken word poet.  Many singers are releasing introspective songs  such as Billie Eilish - "My Future" or my fave - Grace Vanderwaal and her unpublished works in progress.  Technology is starting to clamp down on the excesses with more warnings about inaccurate posts and filters.  The world I knew in February is no longer the world in October - it happened that fast.

Longterm as we pass to the 1T....  While there may be some X-er leadership ahead (edit - Kamela Harris may become a President), I think leading Millennials like Pete Buttigieg on the centrist left and whomever rises on the centrist right will soon be the new drivers of our government and culture.  There will remain ideological differences, but maybe the ocean waves will settle and the kids will tire and those sand castles may survive for awhile.
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#35
(10-09-2020, 03:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I do not think the current crisis created the polarized views seen today.  They have always been there, buried just under the earth by establishment and political correctness.  But as distrust of institutions has evaporated into the current crisis, the old wounds have been layed bare, scratched and dirtied by the ideological death match of the boomers leading our world today.

When I talk to a hard conservative, they tell me they have not had a chance to prove their view of the world.  When I suggest there have been many Presidents representing their views, they tell me the other Presidents have taken their victories apart.  Its no wonder then there is a certain vengeance on Obamas victories.  While I have not talked to progressives on the same matter, I am sure they feel the attack on hard-won victories like health care and civil rights.  The democratization of news has only fanned the flames of both sides.  Its like two kids kicking down each others sand castles. and a crowd has formed.

The recent Netflix show "The Social Dilemma" expressed that everyone on social media has a different view of the world.   You and I see different articles on Facebook or Instagram.   In an effort to cater to stories that interest each viewer to maximize eyeball time and profit, contextual media has only served to minimize exposure to the wider range of available ideas.    This is not new.  While I have not studied, no doubt through a wide range of writings, newspapers, and other technologies, the diversification of world view has existed;  and in other times newsreels or Walter Cronkite served to unify one world view.  Same thing, different time.

As someone with a longer view of things, let me note that the last swing of the pendulum was left to right when Reagan took the reigns in 1980 (arguably started earlier, but let's not get into minutiae). The era is pretty far right, though not far enough to justify the term "fringe". In any case, neoliberal and neoconservative ideas have been tried for 40 years (include both Clintons fully in that camp), so boo-hooing on the right is unjustified at the very least.

Arkarch Wrote:How this resolves?   I do believe 2020 is the last deathmatch boomer election (understanding that Biden is Nov 1942 and on the cusp).  

I think we have just passed the tipping point of the 4T.  The last of our institutions has fallen - our trust in health and the police and the post office and even likely the Supreme Court.  What worked for Trump in 2016 will not work today - we have already knocked down everything. Their law and order strategy is just kicking at ghosts.  

The polls are now tipping fast.  CNN Poll Biden +16 Nationally.  Average polls closing in on +10.   This is no longer an ideology-driven election - that is now noise.  Many centrist Republicans, for which I will count myself, have joined the Biden side.  I think people have tired of kicking sandcastles and are now just looking for stability to find solutions and ideas needed to build the world anew. 

This is not only counted in politics, but in culture - Who won AGT? - a spoken word poet.  Many singers are releasing introspective songs  such as Billie Eilish - "My Future" or my fave - Grace Vanderwaal and her unpublished works in progress.  Technology is starting to clamp down on the excesses with more warnings about inaccurate posts and filters.  The world I knew in February is no longer the world in October - it happened that fast.

Longterm as we pass to the 1T....  While there may be some X-er leadership ahead (edit - Kamela Harris may become a President), I think leading Millennials like Pete Buttigieg on the centrist left and whomever rises on the centrist right will soon be the new drivers of our government and culture.  There will remain ideological differences, but maybe the ocean waves will settle and the kids will tire and those sand castles may survive for awhile.

Biden is fully a Silent. I've known them all my life, and, take it from someone educated by nothing but, Biden qualifies. He's the last gasp of the mild mannered center left. If blandness is the resolution of this crisis, standby for a raucous 2T coming soon to a society near you.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#36
(10-09-2020, 09:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(10-09-2020, 03:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I do not think the current crisis created the polarized views seen today.  They have always been there, buried just under the earth by establishment and political correctness.  But as distrust of institutions has evaporated into the current crisis, the old wounds have been layed bare, scratched and dirtied by the ideological death match of the boomers leading our world today.

When I talk to a hard conservative, they tell me they have not had a chance to prove their view of the world.  When I suggest there have been many Presidents representing their views, they tell me the other Presidents have taken their victories apart.  Its no wonder then there is a certain vengeance on Obamas victories.  While I have not talked to progressives on the same matter, I am sure they feel the attack on hard-won victories like health care and civil rights.  The democratization of news has only fanned the flames of both sides.  Its like two kids kicking down each others sand castles. and a crowd has formed.

The recent Netflix show "The Social Dilemma" expressed that everyone on social media has a different view of the world.   You and I see different articles on Facebook or Instagram.   In an effort to cater to stories that interest each viewer to maximize eyeball time and profit, contextual media has only served to minimize exposure to the wider range of available ideas.    This is not new.  While I have not studied, no doubt through a wide range of writings, newspapers, and other technologies, the diversification of world view has existed;  and in other times newsreels or Walter Cronkite served to unify one world view.  Same thing, different time.

As someone with a longer view of things, let me note that the last swing of the pendulum was left to right when Reagan took the reigns in 1980 (arguably started earlier, but let's not get into minutiae).  The era is pretty far right, though not far enough to justify the term "fringe".  In any case, neoliberal and neoconservative ideas have been tried for 40 years (include both Clintons fully in that camp), so boo-hooing on the right is unjustified at the very least.

Arkarch Wrote:How this resolves?   I do believe 2020 is the last deathmatch boomer election (understanding that Biden is Nov 1942 and on the cusp).  

I think we have just passed the tipping point of the 4T.  The last of our institutions has fallen - our trust in health and the police and the post office and even likely the Supreme Court.  What worked for Trump in 2016 will not work today - we have already knocked down everything. Their law and order strategy is just kicking at ghosts.  

The polls are now tipping fast.  CNN Poll Biden +16 Nationally.  Average polls closing in on +10.   This is no longer an ideology-driven election - that is now noise.  Many centrist Republicans, for which I will count myself, have joined the Biden side.  I think people have tired of kicking sandcastles and are now just looking for stability to find solutions and ideas needed to build the world anew. 

This is not only counted in politics, but in culture - Who won AGT? - a spoken word poet.  Many singers are releasing introspective songs  such as Billie Eilish - "My Future" or my fave - Grace Vanderwaal and her unpublished works in progress.  Technology is starting to clamp down on the excesses with more warnings about inaccurate posts and filters.  The world I knew in February is no longer the world in October - it happened that fast.

Longterm as we pass to the 1T....  While there may be some X-er leadership ahead (edit - Kamela Harris may become a President), I think leading Millennials like Pete Buttigieg on the centrist left and whomever rises on the centrist right will soon be the new drivers of our government and culture.  There will remain ideological differences, but maybe the ocean waves will settle and the kids will tire and those sand castles may survive for awhile.

Biden is fully a Silent.  I've known them all my life, and, take it from someone educated by nothing but, Biden qualifies. He's the last gasp of the mild mannered center left.  If blandness is the resolution of this crisis, standby for a raucous 2T coming soon to a society near you.

Boo-hooing the Right ....  I thought it was strange too --  afterall..   But that was the response I got.

Biden/Silent... Biden does strike me as a silent - my mom is a 1940 Silent.  But nevertheless he is surrounded by boomer types - as was Obama, someone on the boomer/x-er cusp and programatic yet dominated by boomers in his administration.   As noted tho, Biden's running mate Harris is an 1965 X-er and may configure a Biden administration to be more X-er than Boomer.    These Cusp-types are so hard to figure out!!  Smile
Reply
#37
(10-09-2020, 09:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(10-09-2020, 03:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I do not think the current crisis created the polarized views seen today.  They have always been there, buried just under the earth by establishment and political correctness.  But as distrust of institutions has evaporated into the current crisis, the old wounds have been layed bare, scratched and dirtied by the ideological death match of the boomers leading our world today.

When I talk to a hard conservative, they tell me they have not had a chance to prove their view of the world.  When I suggest there have been many Presidents representing their views, they tell me the other Presidents have taken their victories apart.  Its no wonder then there is a certain vengeance on Obamas victories.  While I have not talked to progressives on the same matter, I am sure they feel the attack on hard-won victories like health care and civil rights.  The democratization of news has only fanned the flames of both sides.  Its like two kids kicking down each others sand castles. and a crowd has formed.

The recent Netflix show "The Social Dilemma" expressed that everyone on social media has a different view of the world.   You and I see different articles on Facebook or Instagram.   In an effort to cater to stories that interest each viewer to maximize eyeball time and profit, contextual media has only served to minimize exposure to the wider range of available ideas.    This is not new.  While I have not studied, no doubt through a wide range of writings, newspapers, and other technologies, the diversification of world view has existed;  and in other times newsreels or Walter Cronkite served to unify one world view.  Same thing, different time.

As someone with a longer view of things, let me note that the last swing of the pendulum was left to right when Reagan took the reigns in 1980 (arguably started earlier, but let's not get into minutiae).  The era is pretty far right, though not far enough to justify the term "fringe".  In any case, neoliberal and neoconservative ideas have been tried for 40 years (include both Clintons fully in that camp), so boo-hooing on the right is unjustified at the very least.

Arkarch Wrote:How this resolves?   I do believe 2020 is the last deathmatch boomer election (understanding that Biden is Nov 1942 and on the cusp).  

I think we have just passed the tipping point of the 4T.  The last of our institutions has fallen - our trust in health and the police and the post office and even likely the Supreme Court.  What worked for Trump in 2016 will not work today - we have already knocked down everything. Their law and order strategy is just kicking at ghosts.  

The polls are now tipping fast.  CNN Poll Biden +16 Nationally.  Average polls closing in on +10.   This is no longer an ideology-driven election - that is now noise.  Many centrist Republicans, for which I will count myself, have joined the Biden side.  I think people have tired of kicking sandcastles and are now just looking for stability to find solutions and ideas needed to build the world anew. 

This is not only counted in politics, but in culture - Who won AGT? - a spoken word poet.  Many singers are releasing introspective songs  such as Billie Eilish - "My Future" or my fave - Grace Vanderwaal and her unpublished works in progress.  Technology is starting to clamp down on the excesses with more warnings about inaccurate posts and filters.  The world I knew in February is no longer the world in October - it happened that fast.

Longterm as we pass to the 1T....  While there may be some X-er leadership ahead (edit - Kamela Harris may become a President), I think leading Millennials like Pete Buttigieg on the centrist left and whomever rises on the centrist right will soon be the new drivers of our government and culture.  There will remain ideological differences, but maybe the ocean waves will settle and the kids will tire and those sand castles may survive for awhile.

Biden is fully a Silent.  I've known them all my life, and, take it from someone educated by nothing but, Biden qualifies. He's the last gasp of the mild mannered center left.  If blandness is the resolution of this crisis, standby for a raucous 2T coming soon to a society near you.

After Trump, bland expertise will seem the safe solution. I expect Joe Biden to be a one-term President due to his age, and I expect the next President after him to be a mellowed Reactive analogous in temperament to Eisenhower or Obama. It is hard to imagine better for a 1T. I expect a conformist political culture that compels compromises. Trump's "stick it to the losers" style will ring hollow. I already predict a Trump loss to the extent that I( see him more likely to meet the Grim Reaper before the election than to win it.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#38
(10-09-2020, 03:05 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(10-09-2020, 09:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(10-09-2020, 03:54 AM)Arkarch Wrote: I do not think the current crisis created the polarized views seen today.  They have always been there, buried just under the earth by establishment and political correctness.  But as distrust of institutions has evaporated into the current crisis, the old wounds have been layed bare, scratched and dirtied by the ideological death match of the boomers leading our world today.

When I talk to a hard conservative, they tell me they have not had a chance to prove their view of the world.  When I suggest there have been many Presidents representing their views, they tell me the other Presidents have taken their victories apart.  Its no wonder then there is a certain vengeance on Obamas victories.  While I have not talked to progressives on the same matter, I am sure they feel the attack on hard-won victories like health care and civil rights.  The democratization of news has only fanned the flames of both sides.  Its like two kids kicking down each others sand castles. and a crowd has formed.

The recent Netflix show "The Social Dilemma" expressed that everyone on social media has a different view of the world.   You and I see different articles on Facebook or Instagram.   In an effort to cater to stories that interest each viewer to maximize eyeball time and profit, contextual media has only served to minimize exposure to the wider range of available ideas.    This is not new.  While I have not studied, no doubt through a wide range of writings, newspapers, and other technologies, the diversification of world view has existed;  and in other times newsreels or Walter Cronkite served to unify one world view.  Same thing, different time.

As someone with a longer view of things, let me note that the last swing of the pendulum was left to right when Reagan took the reigns in 1980 (arguably started earlier, but let's not get into minutiae).  The era is pretty far right, though not far enough to justify the term "fringe".  In any case, neoliberal and neoconservative ideas have been tried for 40 years (include both Clintons fully in that camp), so boo-hooing on the right is unjustified at the very least.

Arkarch Wrote:How this resolves?   I do believe 2020 is the last deathmatch boomer election (understanding that Biden is Nov 1942 and on the cusp).  

I think we have just passed the tipping point of the 4T.  The last of our institutions has fallen - our trust in health and the police and the post office and even likely the Supreme Court.  What worked for Trump in 2016 will not work today - we have already knocked down everything. Their law and order strategy is just kicking at ghosts.  

The polls are now tipping fast.  CNN Poll Biden +16 Nationally.  Average polls closing in on +10.   This is no longer an ideology-driven election - that is now noise.  Many centrist Republicans, for which I will count myself, have joined the Biden side.  I think people have tired of kicking sandcastles and are now just looking for stability to find solutions and ideas needed to build the world anew. 

This is not only counted in politics, but in culture - Who won AGT? - a spoken word poet.  Many singers are releasing introspective songs  such as Billie Eilish - "My Future" or my fave - Grace Vanderwaal and her unpublished works in progress.  Technology is starting to clamp down on the excesses with more warnings about inaccurate posts and filters.  The world I knew in February is no longer the world in October - it happened that fast.

Longterm as we pass to the 1T....  While there may be some X-er leadership ahead (edit - Kamela Harris may become a President), I think leading Millennials like Pete Buttigieg on the centrist left and whomever rises on the centrist right will soon be the new drivers of our government and culture.  There will remain ideological differences, but maybe the ocean waves will settle and the kids will tire and those sand castles may survive for awhile.

Biden is fully a Silent.  I've known them all my life, and, take it from someone educated by nothing but, Biden qualifies. He's the last gasp of the mild mannered center left.  If blandness is the resolution of this crisis, standby for a raucous 2T coming soon to a society near you.

After Trump, bland expertise will seem the safe solution. I expect Joe Biden to be a one-term President due to his age, and I expect the next President after him to be a mellowed Reactive analogous in temperament to Eisenhower or Obama. It is hard to imagine better for a 1T. I expect a conformist political culture that compels compromises. Trump's "stick it to the losers" style will ring hollow. I already predict a Trump loss to the extent that I( see him more likely to meet the Grim Reaper before the election than to win it.

I live in Las Vegas.  I can probably find a window with the odds on all that.
Reply
#39
Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.
Reply
#40
(11-11-2020, 10:57 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning:

U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predicted 2020 unrest


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enormo...2020-11-03

And this interview on Hedgeye TV with Keith McCullough:

Howe & McCullough: "The Fourth Turning: Navigating The Crisis In America" - YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj5w7BimQJo

Howe drops a hint as to the focus of his next book: the globalizing alignment of his generational theory which, with the near-universal impact of COVID-19, will be interesting to see how he makes that case.  He best hurry up, though, on the publication of his presumably updated book because events may be unfolding faster than he can research and write it. I’m guessing that he’s aiming for a 25th anniversary edition of The Fourth Turning, which would put the publication date sometime in 2022.

I would love to participate in his book. I have some insights outside the box, and I can do some research.  Note also that the 35th anniversary of Generations is in 2024 (has it been that long?)

What must happen?

1. The interstate polarization in political results must weaken. It got more, and not less severe in 2020 than ever (ruling out the Southern states that did not have a meaningful Republican Party before at least the 1950's) since the run-up to the Civil War. 

2. If we need the effect of a Crisis War, then COVID-19 is it. It kills like a Crisis War; it is killing Americans at least on the scale of World War II, and it is likely to kill for a few more months. COVID-19 has forced people to change their behavior or has put them at risk of severe consequences. The body count is at a level that Americans will not long tolerate. COVID-19 will change even American culture to reflect its devastation. 

3. Americans must insist on extensive changes in their institutions. We are getting that as on-line marketing drives brick-and-mortar retailing (except for groceries and motor fuels, perhaps clothing and furniture) into oblivion. I can imagine JC Penney surviving -- on-line only. Sears will die. Educational practices will change as schools will have to go from preparing kids to take standardized tests to preparing them for citizenship. Neoliberal economics could approach the end of its shelf life. As is typical in the transition from a 3T to a 1T society goes from being a nation of speculators, the least astute of which are the last participants in the speculative bubble and get burned, to a nation of savers. With thrift as a norm, stewardship becomes a mandatory quality among those trusted with life savings. People accept lower yields in longer-term investments, but in return they get investments that make their lives better -- through better housing and more jobs.     

4. Donald Trump is a big scare to a big part of the Establishment. He may have seemed useful to some would-be profiteers, but he has shown the hazards of his reckless disregard for human dignity, science, and social solidarity. Some people have learned a lesson in his uncomfortable approach to re-election.  We are going to see institutional changes intended to make the improvement of students an objective of post-secondary education. Higher education has always been an elite phenomenon. That people like Donald Trump emerge from it can scare people once his sort can reach the apex of power.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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