Political Cycle Model for Saeculum

[Ragnarök_62]

(08-26-2019, 09:39 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Mr. Horn writes: "In short, you believe that the theory supports everyone's biases, but provides no real guidance.  So why bother? If, after the fact, it is what it is, it will be that without any interstitial handwringing."

In short, I left the fourthturning.com because I was convinced it, and the S&H theory it was based on, was fast becoming a "interstitial" cult.

History simply turns via the evolution of human perception's of truth. And lots of grand ideas lie upon the ash-heap of history, no matter what we'd like to believe, in the light of "self-evident truth."

Ash heaps?  Hmmm... yup speaking of which , Pres. Trump is really doing a nice thing in deep sixixng this rusted out hulk called the "Liberal World Order". It's odd because he has a zoo living in the White House that's trying to prop it up. Mr. Walrus Pompeo and Mr. Landwhale Pompeo are trying to keep it around. However, I love how Mr. Tariffman is wrecking the supply chains. I reckon climate change will help as well.

[pbrower2a]

(08-26-2019, 11:10 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-25-2019, 10:06 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: The previous posts by the him, her, or whatever gender pronoun pbrower2a prefers, perfectly illustrate why the S&H cyclical history theory is really meaningless beyond something as an interesting or even, perhaps, accurate means to explain the mystery of humankind's past, present and future.

As Michael Alexander conceded, "politics, not economics was the key to the saeculum because all facets of the social world, economics, politics, religion, morals, in short, culture, are represented in one’s politics."

There lies the nasty rub: In short, politics always alternately illuminates and blinds our hearts and minds to the truth, because we all become a prisoner to our dated "social world, economics, politics, religion, morals, in short, culture." The world is always passing us by.  Just ask Joe Biden. I'm sure he'd agree. Ok, ask Mitch McConnell, too.

Thus the "saeculum" merely exists as means for the "one", not the "many", to set their internal clock of the future based upon the cycle of history. My clock is set to 6am, while pbrower2a's clock is, at the same time set to midnight. My "saeculum" clock says it's morning in America, while his has determined darkness has only begun to fall upon his America.

Edit: Perhaps the word "useless" rather than "meaningless" is a better adjective to use as I assess the S&H theory.

In short, you believe that the theory supports everyone's biases, but provides no real guidance.  So why bother? If, after the fact, it is what it is, it will be that without any interstitial handwringing.

Exactly. I see something that Howe and Strauss missed because they saw less evidence when writing Generations in 1989 than I did -- later  because it happened later -- that the bad culture, bad business practices, bad economic choices that people made, and bad politics of a 3T consumes or destroys the 'seed-corn' of economic well-being and social stability -- the capital and the culture of trust that people built steadily from the first opportunity after the collapse of the pre-Crisis world of the previous Saeculum.  

When Neil Howe invited comments, I suggested that the cause of the financial panics that precede Crisis Eras result from speculative booms that happen when the speculation crowds out other investment, devouring capital in what prove fecal investments. During the speculative boom that portends the end of an era of comparative stability, people are not starting new businesses, Big Business fails to make adequate investments in plant and equipment that create the jobs that create the means for consumer prosperity, and government cuts taxes to reward people for monopolizing, gouging, and speculating. So what is left when the speculative boom exists? Nothing! People addled on mass low culture start to feel hunger and see everyone demanding quick payment or begging for aid. Government has under-invested in infrastructure both material and human. People have looked for quick-buck, highly-marketable, liquid investments and suddenly found those worthless. The worst corporate entities, the ones that treated leverage as a tool for accelerating corporate prosperity, implode first. 

The recovery begins soon after the bloated behemoths die. Small business, always a slow-return, illiquid, low-yield investment at its inception, fills the niches that incompetently-run entities leave behind. Governments start investing in shovel-ready projects to sop up mass unemployment. People start looking at customers as assets to be cultivated carefully. People develop institutional loyalty that monopolistic behemoths took for granted due to control of the market. It begins as a poorer world than what preceded, but it gets better for people because it is better.

It may surprise people, but a depression is the best time in which to start a business. Expectations are low for owners. which means that owners stick with struggling entities even if those barely feed the owner's family. Labor is cheap, good, and loyal as it had not been before. Inventories are available at fire-sale prices without the fire. Commercial rents of real estate are cheap. Zoning gets lenient because governments are far more interested in jobs and tax revenue than in some aesthetic principle. Building a smelter in a residential neighborhood? At least people will have jobs quickly even if they must pay a heavy price in years ahead through the subtle and insidious effects of heavy-metal pollution. The social culture changes -- the economic culture in which everyone acts like a loan-shark collecting debts is over. 

Does this sound like 3T economic culture, complete with an everybody-for-himself ethos and mindless consumerism as vogue?



  

People will be more rational in their consumer choices -- and for that they will better like what they get. Selling stuff will be more personal, as people will be less likely to buy junk.

[beechnut79]

(08-27-2019, 01:31 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(08-26-2019, 11:10 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-25-2019, 10:06 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: The previous posts by the him, her, or whatever gender pronoun pbrower2a prefers, perfectly illustrate why the S&H cyclical history theory is really meaningless beyond something as an interesting or even, perhaps, accurate means to explain the mystery of humankind's past, present and future.

As Michael Alexander conceded, "politics, not economics was the key to the saeculum because all facets of the social world, economics, politics, religion, morals, in short, culture, are represented in one’s politics."

There lies the nasty rub: In short, politics always alternately illuminates and blinds our hearts and minds to the truth, because we all become a prisoner to our dated "social world, economics, politics, religion, morals, in short, culture." The world is always passing us by.  Just ask Joe Biden. I'm sure he'd agree. Ok, ask Mitch McConnell, too.

Thus the "saeculum" merely exists as means for the "one", not the "many", to set their internal clock of the future based upon the cycle of history. My clock is set to 6am, while pbrower2a's clock is, at the same time set to midnight. My "saeculum" clock says it's morning in America, while his has determined darkness has only begun to fall upon his America.

Edit: Perhaps the word "useless" rather than "meaningless" is a better adjective to use as I assess the S&H theory.

In short, you believe that the theory supports everyone's biases, but provides no real guidance.  So why bother? If, after the fact, it is what it is, it will be that without any interstitial handwringing.

Exactly. I see something that Howe and Strauss missed because they saw less evidence when writing Generations in 1989 than I did -- later  because it happened later -- that the bad culture, bad business practices, bad economic choices that people made, and bad politics of a 3T consumes or destroys the 'seed-corn' of economic well-being and social stability -- the capital and the culture of trust that people built steadily from the first opportunity after the collapse of the pre-Crisis world of the previous Saeculum.  

When Neil Howe invited comments, I suggested that the cause of the financial panics that precede Crisis Eras result from speculative booms that happen when the speculation crowds out other investment, devouring capital in what prove fecal investments. During the speculative boom that portends the end of an era of comparative stability, people are not starting new businesses, Big Business fails to make adequate investments in plant and equipment that create the jobs that create the means for consumer prosperity, and government cuts taxes to reward people for monopolizing, gouging, and speculating. So what is left when the speculative boom exists? Nothing! People addled on mass low culture start to feel hunger and see everyone demanding quick payment or begging for aid. Government has under-invested in infrastructure both material and human. People have looked for quick-buck, highly-marketable, liquid investments and suddenly found those worthless. The worst corporate entities, the ones that treated leverage as a tool for accelerating corporate prosperity, implode first. 

The recovery begins soon after the bloated behemoths die. Small business, always a slow-return, illiquid, low-yield investment at its inception, fills the niches that incompetently-run entities leave behind. Governments start investing in shovel-ready projects to sop up mass unemployment. People start looking at customers as assets to be cultivated carefully. People develop institutional loyalty that monopolistic behemoths took for granted due to control of the market. It begins as a poorer world than what preceded, but it gets better for people because it is better.

It may surprise people, but a depression is the best time in which to start a business. Expectations are low for owners. which means that owners stick with struggling entities even if those barely feed the owner's family. Labor is cheap, good, and loyal as it had not been before. Inventories are available at fire-sale prices without the prices. Commercial rents of real estate are cheap. The social culture changes -- the economic culture in which everyone acts like a loan-shark collecting debts is over. 

Does this sound like 3T economic culture, complete with an everybody-for-himself ethos and mindless consumerism as vogue?



  

People will be more rational in their consumer choices -- and for that they will better like what they get. Selling stuff will be more personal, as people will be less likely to buy junk.

This video describes the whole malaise perfectly. Reminds me of a story I read not long ago about all of these folks living paycheck to paycheck with little hope for being able to improve their lot save for a huge stroke of luck such as a big lottery win. They were described as Generation Limbo because of their stuck status, and from the information given was able to come up with the perfect acronym. Lower Income Mostly Beyond Overhaul.

[David Horn]

(08-26-2019, 09:39 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Mr. Horn writes: "In short, you believe that the theory supports everyone's biases, but provides no real guidance.  So why bother? If, after the fact, it is what it is, it will be that without any interstitial handwringing."

In short, I left the fourthturning.com because I was convinced it, and the S&H theory it was based on, was fast becoming a "interstitial" cult.

History simply turns via the evolution of human perception's of truth. And lots of grand ideas lie upon the ash-heap of history, no matter what we'd like to believe, in the light of "self-evident truth."

You seem to be a bit too much an absolutist for me.  You expect total enlightenment or there is no value.  I'm in the 10%+ category, where some value is still value.  No, T4T doesn't answer the great questions of life and certainly doesn't predict the future. It does shine a faint light on the march of history, that clearly does follow a pattern based on forgetting the past at our peril, but it's only a tool.

We're in a major transition in history.  Where it will lead is up to us, not some predetermined totem.  I am nearly certain that you see it in vastly different terms than I do, but that does anoint either of us as a seer.

[pbrower2a]

(08-27-2019, 09:09 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(08-27-2019, 01:31 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Does this sound like 3T economic culture, complete with an everybody-for-himself ethos and mindless consumerism as vogue?



  

People will be more rational in their consumer choices -- and for that they will better like what they get. Selling stuff will be more personal, as people will be less likely to buy junk.

This video describes the whole malaise perfectly. Reminds me of a story I read not long ago about all of these folks living paycheck to paycheck with little hope for being able to improve their lot save for a huge stroke of luck such as a big lottery win. They were described as Generation Limbo because of their stuck status, and from the information given was able to come up with the perfect acronym. Lower Income Mostly Beyond Overhaul.

Everybody for himself culminates in everyone getting hurt -- and practically nobody liking the result. We may be approaching a new economic reality in which the production of consumer schlock loses all credibility as a means of creating human happiness. I remember seeing one science-fiction writer suggest (I forget which one -- it was several decades ago) suggesting that the mark of poverty was that one settled for such stuff. Being free of it would be the evidence of real wealth. 

The every-man-for-himself ethos is ideal for maximal exploitation, short of slavery and fascism, in a modern society. It culminates in a society in which nearly everyone cares about each other as if they were loan-sharks collecting debts. That sort of society invariably fails.

[Mikebert]

(08-26-2019, 09:39 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: Mr. Horn writes: "In short, you believe that the theory supports everyone's biases, but provides no real guidance.  So why bother? If, after the fact, it is what it is, it will be that without any interstitial handwringing."

In short, I left the fourthturning.com because I was convinced it, and the S&H theory it was based on, was fast becoming a "interstitial" cult.

History simply turns via the evolution of human perception's of truth. And lots of grand ideas lie upon the ash-heap of history, no matter what we'd like to believe, in the light of "self-evident truth."

The theory does not work (i.e. it does not do what it is purported to do) as I pointed out years ago. The question I was always concerned with was whether there was enough evidence for it to establish its existence, S&H neglected to provide evidence. I thought I had established it, but a more rigorous analysis showed this was not the case. I could get up to 80-90% confidence with the first few data correlations, but as I added more and more data series, the significance did not move up.

I finally resorted to making explicit predictions. Initially these were successful, but then there were some failed one and eventually it became coin flips.  I have since moved on from the generational theory as a useful way to understand historical dynamics and started working in the discipline of cliodynamics.  I have published three papers in cliodynamics journal. That said, the long cycles (the class of cycles into which S&H, K-cycles, and political cycles fall) has not been completely invalidated) so I post here too from time to time. I am of the opinion that we are in a social moment turning that began around 2008, but so far it does not resemble a secular crisis. I was able to come up with a math model for the S&H theory some years ago, but it does not generate a fixed number (4) of turnings per saeculum. The civil war saeculum has six turnings for example. It is possible this turning in one of the third type of social moment turning, or it could pan out as a secular crisis after all, it depends on how it turns out. The data below shows a measure of sociopolitical instability that is a hallmark of what Turchin calls a "fathers and sons" cycles, which is type of long cycle. In the US it roughly corresponds to what Samuel Huntington called "creedal passion periods" and approximately map on to some, but not all, of the S&H social moment turnings. Anyways, a rising trend  is evidence after 2008, suggesting the start of social moment turnings around then. Turchin predicted in a 2012 paper that this trend should peak around 2020. So far, we are on track. The key will be if it starts coming down in the 2020's. This data is a measure of the frequency of rampage killings (mostly mass shootings). The data are smoothed with an exponential average (alpha = 0.2).

1985              2              1996              5              2006              5              2016              20
1986              3              1997              5              2007              6              2017              19
1987              3              1998              5              2008              6              2018              20
1988              3              1999              6              2009              8              2019              22
1989              3              2000              6              2010              8                            
1990              3              2001              5              2011              8                            
1991              3              2002              5              2012              11                            
1992              3              2003              5              2013              13                            
1993              5              2004              5              2014              13                            
1994              5              2005              5              2015              18

[pbrower2a]

The theory can never work perfectly because history does not act as a perfect machine. People make history, but history determines what is possible for people. History encompasses everything human; because people are not machines, history cannot be a machine.

Even so there is a cycle in history that establishes what is possible in some times and what is not. Obviously no country can long endure if its guiding principle is that every man is for himself all the time. People end up with nothing worthy of loyalty or show no ability to make sacrifices for even the survival of the community -- and the community goes rotten.

Historical eras tend to create habits that do not disappear easily while people around with those habits. When I discuss much that is wrong with contemporary America I focus not so much on conservatism and liberalism, as we tend to alternate between times of liberal and conservative domination. Donald Trump would be a disaster as a President whether he were a Bible-thumping reactionary or a self-indulgent liberal telling people to live for the moment. He exemplifies the ethos of every man for himself to the extreme.

It is hard to imagine brave young men storming the beaches of Normandy on the assumption that they do so for their own selfish benefit. Americans had to take individual responsibility to meet the economic meltdown that they just knew; to get a fair shake in most industrial work they would need a union on their side just to get collective bargaining; they would have to do big projects to create prosperity more lasting than some corrupt speculative boom. Everybody depends on everyone else doing his share in a Crisis Era so that there will be something worthy of keeping.

The habits that everyone old enough to remember the Crisis continue into the 1T, and everyone acts as if everything holds by a thin thread. Loyalty becomes the key to respectability -- and survival. That said, loyalty rewards itself in unprecedented prosperity. People may be loyal to questionable things, like segregation in the 1950s,,, and such comes under challenge in the 2T.

Culture loses its cohesion (as if cultural conformity achieved anything worthy) as kids who knew not the Crisis start to enter adulthood. The world seems safe enough to face some challenges. Maybe some commercial loyalty is suspect, as to cigarettes. Still, the projects are getting bigger -- if also more soulless. The youth give ethical and cultural challenges... and at times they are right. The Awakening Era is upon us, and it will last until society starts making compromises or one side crushes the other.

It's in the 3T that young adults sacrifice both community and principle in the name of gain and hedonism. Life is all about making money and enjoying its fruits. People are looking for easy money from short-term, high-yield investments easy to make and sell and requiring little effort. Anyone who wants such asks for what never was, can never be for long, and never will be. Gambling, for all practical purposes, supplants real work (real work is for suckers, as it is then ill-paid because 'lesser' people pick the crops, feed and slaughter the livestock for meat, do domestic service, and serve people at the retail and food-service places. Is something wrong then? Oh, is there!

Speculative booms crowd out more wholesome investments that really can create wealth. We find out the hard way, or things get so hard that we give up and do things as necessary or everything falls apart. Every man for himself means that almost everyone gets hurt.

[Marc Lamb]

(09-01-2019, 04:40 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I have since moved on from the generational theory as a useful way to understand historical dynamics and started working in the discipline of cliodynamics.  I have published three papers in cliodynamics journal...

Accepting the premise "that politics, not economics was the key to the saeculum because all facets of the social world, economics, politics, religion, morals, in short, culture, are represented in one’s politics," I am tempted to conclude, based on what I read there, the "discipline of cliodynamics" falls flat into a meaningless abyss, of molding "cycles of history" to fit a present-day political agenda. Maybe it'll work, maybe it won't. Not much empirical there!

An effective Watchtower notwithstanding, everyone has an internal clock to rely upon. Whether it's day or night, winter or spring, first or fourth turning, it is God's universal gift to all mankind with the inherent ability discern what time it is, no matter one's "social world, economics, politics, religion" or morals yadda, yadda, yadda. 

John F. Kennedy -- Undelivered speech, Nov 22, 1963 Wrote:We in this country, in this generation, are – by destiny rather than choice – the watchmen on the walls of world freedom. We ask, therefore, that we may be worthy of our power and responsibility, that we may exercise our strength with wisdom and restraint, and that we may achieve in our time and for all time the ancient vision of "peace on earth, good will toward men." That must always be our goal, and the righteousness of our cause must always underlie our strength. For as was written long ago: "except the Lord keep the city, the watchman waketh but in vain."

[pbrower2a]

(09-04-2019, 08:12 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote:

(09-01-2019, 04:40 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I have since moved on from the generational theory as a useful way to understand historical dynamics and started working in the discipline of cliodynamics.  I have published three papers in cliodynamics journal...

Accepting the premise "that politics, not economics was the key to the saeculum because all facets of the social world, economics, politics, religion, morals, in short, culture, are represented in one’s politics," I am tempted to conclude, based on what I read there, the "discipline of cliodynamics" falls flat into a meaningless abyss, of molding "cycles of history" to fit a present-day political agenda. Maybe it'll work, maybe it won't. Not much empirical there!

An effective Watchtower notwithstanding, everyone has an internal clock to rely upon. Whether it's day or night, winter or spring, first or fourth turning, it is God's universal gift to all mankind with the inherent ability discern what time it is, no matter one's "social world, economics, politics, religion" or morals yadda, yadda, yadda. 

I see the connection between politics, mass culture, economic practice, and educational priorities. In a 3T everything is about money and little about the work that creates wealth and renders meaning to money. When politics is about the Good Life for the few, when education is about creating wealth and not about using it to create happiness, when the typical investment is a speculative hustle, and when mass culture is a sick circus, then we are setting ourselves up for a fall.  The fall is a 3T morphing into a 4T.

How bad can a 4T get? I think of Japan, where the heroic soldiers largely dedicated to stealing rice from the paddies of southeast Asia including the East Indies to feed the factory workers who supplied the guns and warships found themselves back in the paddies of Japan to stave off starvation. I think of Germany, which destroyed its reputation for intellectual life in favor of a Fuehrer who celebrated primitive and destructive hatred unleashed a whirlwind that ended up ravaging Germany. Survivors got to pick up the pieces -- literal rubble of ruined cities.
We rightly reward those who do the real work with solid income instead of treating them like scum, and we recognize legitimate achievements in culture as the creators of national identity.  The speculators and hucksters of the 3T get paid too well for the illusory wealth that they create... until such becomes impossible. 
I could create an outline of a 1T, at the least, based on other instances of 1T in America and elsewhere. The seeds of the 1T arise in a 4T.