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The US and Western Europe are not on the same timeline
#21
(03-07-2021, 07:32 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Regarding David Horn's comments....

If I recall correctly, somebody once pointed out that the Missionary Awakening had an amount of labor activism that is unusual for a 2T.  Which was, of course, the 2T that followed directly after the Gilded Age.

The double rhythm suggests that the next 2T may be of the same general type as the Missionary, an Apollo awakening.  Of course, a 2T is one of the two turnings in which there may be significant reforms.

I've thought for a few years now that the necessary changes need much more time to gel, so yes, the next 2T may start the process. We've moved from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial and right on to the Information Age in the short period of two centuries.  And if the pace of change is and has been far outside the typical for the last 2 saecula, this one seems to be even faster.  Our governments aren't structured for this -- not here or anywhere else I can see.   There is no economic model with capital assets but no labor component, and that's approaching fast.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#22
(03-06-2021, 04:17 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1.  Divisive, but relatively mild 4T.  (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2.  Weak 1T.

The 1T conformity might be weak this time, but it might be a time of important economic reforms. The Green New Deal might be introduced gradually. In the EU there is a similar plan:
European Green Deal - Wikipedia
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#23
(03-08-2021, 02:44 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-07-2021, 07:32 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Regarding David Horn's comments....

If I recall correctly, somebody once pointed out that the Missionary Awakening had an amount of labor activism that is unusual for a 2T.  Which was, of course, the 2T that followed directly after the Gilded Age.

The double rhythm suggests that the next 2T may be of the same general type as the Missionary, an Apollo awakening.  Of course, a 2T is one of the two turnings in which there may be significant reforms.

I've thought for a few years now that the necessary changes need much more time to gel, so yes, the next 2T may start the process. We've moved from the Agricultural Age to the Industrial and right on to the Information Age in the short period of two centuries.  And if the pace of change is and has been far outside the typical for the last 2 saecula, this one seems to be even faster.  Our governments aren't structured for this -- not here or anywhere else I can see.   There is no economic model with capital assets but no labor component, and that's approaching fast.

We Boomers started with "Peace, Love, and Dope" and ended up with Donald Trump and "Rash Libel"... maybe the more sober and humane of us might have offered something different from either, but we are now old enough that others (for now X and Millennial adults) will need to cadge something together. We need concord before we can attain peace, and our love had better have something less transitory than lust behind it. "Dope" is of course an unmitigated disaster. 

Technological change, if successful, forces cultural and economic change. The telephone and automobile changed greatly how people dated. Singles from Milwaukee and South Bend think little of the difficulty of meeting in Chicago... well, it isn't that difficult to drive, but such would have been exceedingly difficult in 1870.  "Let's meet at the Art Institute in front of Seurat's Grande Jatte...  

Technology notwithstanding, many of us have old but irrelevant patterns remaining from the Agricultural era, including the desire of elites to literally lord it over a helpless peasantry. Such is narcissism. Boomers at their worst rediscovered that vice and made it their self-description.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#24
(03-12-2021, 11:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: We Boomers started with "Peace, Love, and Dope" and ended up with Donald Trump and "Rash Libel"... 

This is an important point we often overlook as just part of the scenery. Are these seemingly dissimilar traits really different? I'm beginning to think that they aren't. Both derive from a desire to be free of constraints, albeit in markedly different ways. If we scrub away the ideological parts, and concentrate solely on the desire from some version of freedom, both readily appeal to some people with minimal to no grounding. I called them the hangers-on in an earlier post. They may be more central to the past (and potentially the future) than I had credited them with being.

Maybe it's not the meek who inherit the earth, but rather the disinterested, bored and uninvolved.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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