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The US and Western Europe are not on the same timeline
#1
Personally, I think the 80 year cycle only applies to the US and that the Western Europe cycle is roughly 150 years, with the Continent smack dab in the middle of a cycle as we speak. The US will have its 4T, but I'd argue France, Germany et al. are in fact transitioning from a 2T to a 3T within a much longer saeculum. Look at the major sign posts of European history (Treaty of Westphalia, French Revolution/Napoelon, then the World Wars). Sure, things hit the fan circa 1870 in Europe but it was relatively subdued compared to the crisis eras that bookended it. You could argue Europe had a drawn out 1T that lasted into the 1980s and centred around the theme of postwar prosperity. This was then followed by a 2T preoccupied with the concept of multiculturalism and its effect on "European identity". This of course reached a fever pitch with the refugee crisis. The question is how will Covid be politically leveraged in Continental Europe in the near future. It's possible the far right will ultimately take advantage of the continent's mental exhaustion resulting from Covid and sweep to power with Europeans finding themselves in a boiling frog scenario that will spiral out of control during their next drawn out crisis era towards the end of the 21st century. Only time will tell.
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#2
This is an interesting concept, but it violates what makes a saeculum a saeculum -- the long human lifetime. Institutional memory is tied to the presence or absence of a living cohort able to remember the last time a similar era occurred. 150 years takes that to an extreme.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#3
Most likely because the Crisis was not fully congealed in result in Europe until the Commie coup in Czechoslovakia in 1948, the abdication of King Michael in Romania that marked the last act in the Commie takeover, the Berlin Airlift, the Soviet-Yugoslav split, the petering out of the Greek Civil War, and the establishment of separate regimes in Germany.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#4
(03-05-2021, 03:04 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Most likely because the Crisis was not fully congealed in result in Europe until the Commie coup in Czechoslovakia in 1948, the abdication of King Michael in Romania that marked the last act in the Commie takeover, the Berlin Airlift, the Soviet-Yugoslav split, the petering out of the Greek Civil War, and the establishment of separate regimes in Germany.

Is this in response to me?
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#5
(03-05-2021, 05:47 PM)Remy Renault Wrote:
(03-05-2021, 03:04 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Most likely because the Crisis was not fully congealed in result in Europe until the Commie coup in Czechoslovakia in 1948, the abdication of King Michael in Romania that marked the last act in the Commie takeover, the Berlin Airlift, the Soviet-Yugoslav split, the petering out of the Greek Civil War, and the establishment of separate regimes in Germany.

Is this in response to me?


In a way, to both you and David.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#6
150 years? This is close to the double rhythm in length.
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#7
(03-05-2021, 08:00 AM)Remy Renault Wrote: Personally, I think the 80 year cycle only applies to the US and that the Western Europe cycle is roughly 150 years, with the Continent smack dab in the middle of a cycle as we speak. The US will have its 4T, but I'd argue France, Germany et al. are in fact transitioning from a 2T to a 3T within a much longer saeculum. Look at the major sign posts of European history (Treaty of Westphalia, French Revolution/Napoelon, then the World Wars). Sure, things hit the fan circa 1870 in Europe but it was relatively subdued compared to the crisis eras that bookended it. You could argue Europe had a drawn out 1T that lasted into the 1980s and centred around the theme of postwar prosperity. This was then followed by a 2T preoccupied with the concept of multiculturalism and its effect on "European identity". This of course reached a fever pitch with the refugee crisis. The question is how will Covid be politically leveraged in Continental Europe in the near future. It's possible the far right will ultimately take advantage of the continent's mental exhaustion resulting from Covid and sweep to power with Europeans finding themselves in a boiling frog scenario that will spiral out of control during their next drawn out crisis era towards the end of the 21st century. Only time will tell.

A weaker crisis is safely within the patterns established by S&H. That's what the 1860s were in Europe. Even in America S&H shortened it to 5 years, when it could be conceived as 15 or more encompassing the pre-civil war era of the 1850s. Europe certainly entered our current 4T at the same time as the USA, with the worldwide great recession followed by the Arab Spring and resultant refugee crisis, and then the resultant xenophobia and retreat from democracy just like in the USA, and now covid has hit Europe as hard as the USA. This may turn out to be a weaker and milder 4T like the 1860s; the double rhythm applies. I have no indication of where Europe is going politically in the aftermath of covid. Since Europeans are more intelligent politically and socially/healthwise than Americans, the American-style right-wing resistance to covid measures has not really appeared, although the same tendency to relax controls too soon has happened.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#8
USA had quite severe Crisis wars during the last three 4Ts. (And before those King Philips War was a severe Crisis war). However, on various threads people have given examples of 4Ts that were milder in comparison; these milder 4Ts seem to be relatively few compared to severe 4Ts.

We seem to be in a relatively mild 4T just now. Using the weather metaphor, we seem to be experiencing snow flurries rather than a blizzard.

I assume that Eric is referring to the 1860s in Europe.

This 4T may also turn out to be a non-standard 4T due to Covid-if we avoid a full blown Crisis war. Also, featured a prolonged Cascade phase that paradoxically included an Indian Autumn-a phase like the brief time between harvest and the first snow.
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#9
Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1. Divisive, but relatively mild 4T. (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2. Weak 1T.
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#10
(03-06-2021, 03:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(03-05-2021, 08:00 AM)Remy Renault Wrote: Personally, I think the 80 year cycle only applies to the US and that the Western Europe cycle is roughly 150 years, with the Continent smack dab in the middle of a cycle as we speak. The US will have its 4T, but I'd argue France, Germany et al. are in fact transitioning from a 2T to a 3T within a much longer saeculum. Look at the major sign posts of European history (Treaty of Westphalia, French Revolution/Napoelon, then the World Wars). Sure, things hit the fan circa 1870 in Europe but it was relatively subdued compared to the crisis eras that bookended it. You could argue Europe had a drawn out 1T that lasted into the 1980s and centred around the theme of postwar prosperity. This was then followed by a 2T preoccupied with the concept of multiculturalism and its effect on "European identity". This of course reached a fever pitch with the refugee crisis. The question is how will Covid be politically leveraged in Continental Europe in the near future. It's possible the far right will ultimately take advantage of the continent's mental exhaustion resulting from Covid and sweep to power with Europeans finding themselves in a boiling frog scenario that will spiral out of control during their next drawn out crisis era towards the end of the 21st century. Only time will tell.

A weaker crisis is safely within the patterns established by S&H. That's what the 1860s were in Europe. Even in America S&H shortened it to 5 years, when it could be conceived as 15 or more encompassing the pre-civil war era of the 1850s. Europe certainly entered our current 4T at the same time as the USA, with the worldwide great recession followed by the Arab Spring and resultant refugee crisis, and then the resultant xenophobia and retreat from democracy just like in the USA, and now covid has hit Europe as hard as the USA. This may turn out to be a weaker and milder 4T like the 1860s; the double rhythm applies. I have no indication of where Europe is going politically in the aftermath of covid. Since Europeans are more intelligent politically and socially/healthwise than Americans, the American-style right-wing resistance to covid measures has not really appeared, although the same tendency to relax controls too soon has happened.
Well it could be that within the European context every other 4T is relatively mild whereas in the US every 4T is just as tumultuous as the previous one. The early 18th century and the events that occurred circa 1870 were relatively tame compared to on one side the World Wars and on the other the French Revolution followed by the Napoleonic Wars. But then Europe essentially had one long 4T that extended from 1914 up to the late 1940s. Every single war is a crisis war for at least one of the parties involved.
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#11
I recall people listing series of 4Ts for various countries. A general pattern was that a majority of 4Ts included full blown Crisis wars, and a larger number of 4Ts included wars of some type. Only a handful of 4Ts lacked large scale violence.

Off the top of my head...during the 19th century Britain had a Reform Crisis, and Canada had a Confederation Crisis. I believe that Sweden also had a 4T of nonviolent reform, but I don't recall the details.

There must be a thresh hold at which a country enters a Crisis mood, and it may sometimes be the case where a country only just barely has a Crisis mood.
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#12
(03-06-2021, 04:17 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1.  Divisive, but relatively mild 4T.  (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2.  Weak 1T.


...and most likely. We do have the losses characteristic of a 4T, but we don't have the property damage that we now associate with 'modern' warfare. 

I don't see a huge heroic role for the Millennial generation this time. I also see Boomers living deep into the next 1T, but most significantly the rapacious plutocrats and executives will be put out to pasture, and the more militant figures of Boomer intellectual life will fade in favor of those that weren't so militant. "70 is still the new 50", but 90 is still 90.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#13
(03-07-2021, 03:37 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-06-2021, 04:17 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1.  Divisive, but relatively mild 4T.  (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2.  Weak 1T.

most significantly the rapacious plutocrats and executives will be put out to pasture
Well Great Reset hysteria seems to suggest otherwise, that they'll in fact leverage the pandemic to their benefit and will have the last laugh, but we'll see.
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#14
(03-06-2021, 04:17 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1.  Divisive, but relatively mild 4T.  (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2.  Weak 1T.

This is very likely in my opinion.  We're due for a societal reset, but it appears to be a next-time event.  The heat is here, but the focus is blurry. For those of you still young enough to experience the next 2T, how that unfolds should tell the tale.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#15
(03-07-2021, 04:49 AM)Remy Renault Wrote:
(03-07-2021, 03:37 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-06-2021, 04:17 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1.  Divisive, but relatively mild 4T.  (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2.  Weak 1T.

most significantly the rapacious plutocrats and executives will be put out to pasture

Well Great Reset hysteria seems to suggest otherwise, that they'll in fact leverage the pandemic to their benefit and will have the last laugh, but we'll see.

This round may well go to the plutocrats.  The next, probably not.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#16
(03-07-2021, 04:49 AM)Remy Renault Wrote:
(03-07-2021, 03:37 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(03-06-2021, 04:17 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Reviewing my best case scenario for USA:

1.  Divisive, but relatively mild 4T.  (The American CW was divisive and severe).

2.  Weak 1T.

most significantly the rapacious plutocrats and executives will be put out to pasture
Well Great Reset hysteria seems to suggest otherwise, that they'll in fact leverage the pandemic to their benefit and will have the last laugh, but we'll see.

I have yet to see that the Great Reset is not constructive.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#17
We are finding out much about ourselves and the validity of our assumptions during the Plague of Donald Trump (COVID-19). Some of us have learned how to live without going to casual-dining restaurants; some of us have learned to live without predictably-costly entertainment. My brother and I cut the cable even though we live 80 miles from the broadcast towers. I found that the only TV signals that I can get from broadcast are fundamentalist religious channels that make EWTN look brainy by contrast. So it is back to the Internet, which is better than broadcast TV, recorder video and music, and books. As for casual dining, it is possible to get pre-packaged entrees at the grocery store that one zaps in a microwave oven and gets something just as tasty.

I am beginning to realize that people like my late grandparents got more out of books, early recordings of music, and trips to the movie house than we supposedly-advanced people can get out of 200 channels of cable TV. When we do have reliable income again, maybe we will separate (he will be moving to where his girlfriend, who cannot get along with me, lives) and I will be stuck in the Great Lakes region in farm country. It's awful, and I have some question about the choices that I made to put me in this predicament -- and no satisfying answers within reach. At the very worst, death solves all my problems once and for all unless some Hell awaits me. At my age, Hell is all that scares me. I am satisfied that a God exists, but I cannot be sure that He is the benign Entity that I was told that he is. Were He so benign there would never have been an Atlantic slave trade or the Holocaust. Maybe I have the satisfaction that I will not go where the Nazis, Stalinists, and slave-traffickers are.

I'd like to have influence upon youth to direct them in inobtrusive, constructive ways. I've seen it all, and I have paid attention all my life to people (that goes back to the Lost) who have seen it all. I've known people who went as far west as they could in the Great Plains (western Nebraska) where they hoped to be settlers living a good life. They went out by train and came back by train, because droughts make western Nebraska unsuited to farming without irrigation. Irrigation was expensive in the late 19th century and still is if one is not near a river. There is no river, and the country population has gone from 1412 in 1920 to 444 in 2000, only to rebound to an estimated 465 in 2018. Those relatives, siblings of the father of my maternal grandmother, didn't stay for long. They returned by rail with the stuff that they moved out as comforts on the frontier and the livestock that they took out West for a new life that just did not pan out -- back to Indiana. My great-grandfather's brother, born in 1877, told me about this. I listened. I regret that I did not do a tape recording or take notes.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
Regarding David Horn's comments....

If I recall correctly, somebody once pointed out that the Missionary Awakening had an amount of labor activism that is unusual for a 2T. Which was, of course, the 2T that followed directly after the Gilded Age.

The double rhythm suggests that the next 2T may be of the same general type as the Missionary, an Apollo awakening. Of course, a 2T is one of the two turnings in which there may be significant reforms.
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#19
My earlier posts suggest to me that the projected Crisis of 2100 will likely be very intense. Of course, that would be a life time into the future, so I will be long gone. (I still hope to get a glimpse of the next 2T-gives me something to look forward to in my old age). If that 4T should be resolved with reasonable success, we can project a Dionysus type 2T about a century from now.

BTW, my comments aren't based on any particularly rhythm or cycle, just that most 4Ts have been quite intense.
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#20
(03-07-2021, 07:39 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: My earlier posts suggest to me that the projected Crisis of 2100 will likely be very intense.  Of course, that would be a life time into the future, so I will be long gone.  (I still hope to get a glimpse of the next 2T-gives me something to look forward to in my old age).  If that 4T should be resolved with reasonable success, we can project a Dionysus type 2T about a century from now.

BTW, my comments aren't based on any particularly rhythm or cycle, just that most 4Ts have been quite intense.

If Global Warming should be as nasty as the scariest projections suggest, then the Crisis of 2100 could be as devastating as that of 1940. In general we now take agricultural productivity for granted, but should large swaths of the world's most productive farmland disappear under rising seas  (such land is often alluvial river deltas close to sea level)  and climatic patterns be disrupted elsewhere with heat waves, droughts, and floods, then people of the time might endure famines that destabilize shaky political systems. If you thought that the demagogues of the 1930's were horrific, then wait till you see what awaits Humanity when mass death from famine strikes places not accustomed to it. Social programs cannot create food, and there is no technological fix for hunger. 

The world's most productive farmland may be... Bengal. A relatively small area supports over 200 million people in Bangladesh and northeastern India, and almost all of it is but a few meters above sea level. The Ganges and Brahmaputra draw nutrients from the Himalayas that crops need... and the Ganges delta is one of the most densely-settled rural areas in the world. It barely produces enough food for the people who live there... but try doing without that food production. Where do 200 million peasant farmers go in the event of inundation of the land that they work? That is simply Bengal.

If you thought Soviet-style collectivization was bad, at least the recent freehold farmers still get the questionable privilege of survival as serfs on collective farms.  Maybe Humanity can adapt to slow changes in climatic patterns, and perhaps if sea levels rise slowly enough the soils eroded from distant mountains will keep up with the rising sea level. 

Nobody knows how swiftly climatic change will happen... but the faster that it happens, the more catastrophic an effect it will have upon the food supply. People will not go gently into that good night, for it is not a good night.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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