Echo Boomers (1982-1991) vs Gen Katniss (1994-2003)

[RELFantastic]

In this post, I will be breaking down the two waves of Millennials, Echo Boomers being the first wave and Generation Katniss being the second wave. The main theme of this definition is not just about coming of age in the early 21st century, but its also about defining generations by the barriers of major world events.


Here are the ranges:

First Wave Millennials (Echo Boomers): 1982-1991 (give or take late 1981-mid 1991/Classes of 2000-2009)

Can fall into either first or second wave: 1992-1993 (give or take late 1991-mid 1993/Classes of 2010-2011)

Second Wave Millennials (Generation Katniss): 1994-2003 (give or take late 1993-mid 2003/Classes of 2012-2021)


Going by growing up range of 7-17, Echo Boomers would have all “grew up” (meaning both childhood and adolescence) between 1989-2008, which was a post-berlin wall pre-recession world. Generation Katniss would have all “grew up” (both childhood and adolescence) between 2001-2020, which was a post-9/11 pre-COVID-19 world. Together, that makes the Millennials “growing up” period as 1989-2020.


Echo Boomers were born during the sharp rise in birth rates between 3.68 and above 4.1 from about 1982-1991, with parents mainly being Baby Boomers.

Generation Katniss were born during the sharp decline in birth rates between 3.8 and below 4.1 from about 1994-2003, with parents mainly being Gen Xers.


Echo Boomers were the primary cultural influencers between 2008-2017.

Generation Katniss are the primary cultural influencers between 2020-2029.


Echo Boomers were the first to spend a primarily post-Cold War childhood, as members of Echo Boomers who were alive during the Fall of the Berlin Wall were 0-7.

Generation Katniss were the first to primarily spend a post-9/11 childhood, as members of Generation Katniss who were alive during the 9/11 attacks were 0-7.


Echo Boomers were the elementary schoolers during Clinton’s first term (1993-1996) which can be commonly be referred to as “core 90s“, and teens during Bush’s first term (2001-2004) which can commonly be referred to as “early millennium era”.

Generation Katniss were the elementary schoolers during Bush’s second term (2005-2008) which can commonly be referred to as “McBling era” and teens during Obama’s second term (2013-2016) which can commonly be referred to as “Vine/EDM Era.”


Echo Boomers were 4-13 during the release of Windows 95, which revolutionized the way we use the internet.

Generation Katniss were 4-13 during the release of the IPhone, which revolutionized the way we use our mobile devices.


Echo Boomers are the main 90s kids and the main 2000s graduates.

Generation Katniss are the main 2000s kids and the main 2010s teens.


Echo Boomers were the last to spend a primarily pre-recession adolescence, as members of Echo Boomers were 17-26 when it started.

Generation Katniss were the last to spend a primarily pre-COVID adolescence, as members of Katniss were 17-26 when it started.


Echo Boomers entered the workforce during the massive economic boom of the late 90s and into the 2000s, right before the Great Recession hit.

Generation Katniss entered the workforce during the longest economic expansion in history which was after the Great Recession ended, and right before the COVID recession started.


Echo Boomers largely came of age during the post-9/11 atmospheric 2000s under the Bush administration and were later struck by the Great Recession/Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

Generation Katniss largely came of age during the tumultuous events of the 2010s under Obama’s second term and later Trump, then were later struck by the COVID-19 Pandemic as well as its economic effects.


Echo Boomers were either the first time voters of the Iraq-focused 2004 election or the first time voters of the recession-focused 2008 election.

Generation Katniss were either the first time voters of the nationalistic/polarizing 2016 election or the first time voters of the COVID-focused/polarizing 2020 election.


Echo Boomers came of age after the Dot Com Bubble began but before the Great Recession ended (2000-2009)

Generation Katniss came of age after the Iraq War ended but before the Afghanistan War ended (2012-2021)


A fictional character that is Echo Boomer is Cady Heron (b.1987) from Mean Girls.

A fictional character that is Gen Katniss is Gregg Heffley (b.1998) from Diary of a Wimpy Kid.


There are obviously outliers. 1982 came of age under Clinton, first time voted in 2000, and were never in high school under Bush, and 1991 came of age under Obama, first time voted in 2012, and were never in high school under Bush’s second term.

1994 came of age under Obama’s first term, were in high school under Bush, and first time voted in 2012, and 2003 came of age under Biden, were never in high school under Obama, and will vote first time in 2024.

However, these years still have some strong traits that pull them back into their cohort. Such as the workforce traits, and still being in elementary school during presidential terms like 1982 being in elementary school under Clinton and 2003 being in elementary school under Bush.


But what about 1992 and 1993? Well, I think they can go into either Echo Boomers or Generation Katniss. They were born after birth rates began to decline but before they fell below 4.0, are 90s/2000s kids hybrids, graduated high school during the 2010s though spent most of their teens in the 2000s, could fight in Iraq, were never in elementary school during either Clinton’s first term or Bush’s second, spent most of their childhood before 9/11, yet spent most of their teens after the recession began and could have even entered the workforce then, etc.


Also they share the same Chinese Zodiac Signs:

Dog: 1982 ~ 1994

Pig: 1983 ~ 1995

Rat: 1984 ~ 1996

Ox: 1985 ~ 1997

Tiger: 1986 ~ 1998

Rabbit: 1987 ~ 1999

Dragon: 1988 ~ 2000

Snake: 1989 ~ 2001

Horse: 1990 ~ 2002

Goat: 1991 ~ 2003

[Eric the Green]

So what does the name Katniss mean?

"Generation Katniss were the elementary schoolers during Bush’s second term (2005-2008) which can commonly be referred to as “McBling era” and teens during Obama’s second term (2013-2016) which can commonly be referred to as “Vine/EDM Era.” "

What does "McBling" mean, and what does “Vine/EDM" mean?

Shouldn't generation names come from something familiar to people beyond the pop subculture of a sub-generation itself?

[RELFantastic]

(10-16-2021, 12:29 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: So what does the name Katniss mean?

"Generation Katniss were the elementary schoolers during Bush’s second term (2005-2008) which can commonly be referred to as “McBling era” and teens during Obama’s second term (2013-2016) which can commonly be referred to as “Vine/EDM Era.” "

What does "McBling" mean, and what does “Vine/EDM" mean?

Shouldn't generation names come from something familiar to people beyond the pop subculture of a sub-generation itself?

I would agree that pop culture isn’t everything when it comes to generations. However, I still think it plays a role in shaping each cohort. 

Katniss refers to Katniss Everdeen. The name was coined in 2015 by Noreena Hertz from the College of London. Her range was 1995-2002 and she said that many of the people born between those years share Katniss’s characteristics such as anxiety, distrust of traditional institutions, generosity, lonliness, and creativity. My range however did add 1994 and 2003 into it because I believe they are on the edges of this cohort.

The culture of the McBling era or Bush’s second term, and the Vine/EDM era or Obama’s second term, helped shape the teen culture of these cohorts respectively. Like I said earlier they aren’t the main defining aspects of these cohorts, but they can serve a role in shaping the types of cultural experiences members of these cohorts faced. 

Still, the main defining aspects for 1982-1991 (using 7-17 as a growing up range) is primarily growing up post-Cold War pre-recession (1989-2008) and the main defining aspects for 1994-2003 (again using 7-17 growing up range) is primarily growing up post-9/11 pre-COVID (2001-2020).

The term Gen Katniss may be a placeholder for me right now. There is also the term “Zillennial” though Im not a fan of it since it seems like its trying to connect itself to Gen Z when it is its own different thing.

[pbrower2a]

Katniss Everdeen, a hero of The Hunger Games, exemplifies someone living in a dystopian society, best described as an exaggeration of all that is wrong with a 3T carried to its logical conclusion, a grossly-inegalitarian order in which survival in a ferociously competitive world offers few rewards in return. Sports are a form of entertainment, but unlike those of recent times in which the losers are still well-paid entertainers so long as they qualify for their teams, sports become winner-take-all... and there is not much to take.

Dystopian fiction typically expresses what people most dread about their time. The Hunger Games are made for largely a Millennial audience, an audience that has the most to fear of bad trends of their time. 1984 has the dread of the spread of Communism or the revival of fascism, both of which turn words into lies and paralyze the ability to make moral judgments. Brave New World has amoral, devious science engineering people into a rigid class hierarchy in which everyone is born into a niche based upon intelligence (smart Alphas to lord it over everyone to helpless deltas and epsilons condemned to toil but too stupid to realize how badly they are exploited. Soylent Green suggests consequences of overpopulation.

Basic fears of current trends shape dystopian fiction. I have my idea for a world in which Global Warming has taken place just in time for the Crisis of 2020. Let's start with the most basic reality of life: Man really does live on bread; if not than spirituality, culture, and technology have no cures. Imagine a quarter of the world's population, most of them from marginal peasant communities, displaced. They still need to eat, but because the rising sea level has inundated their small plots of land, they cannot feed themselves anymore. I doubt that we will develop wearable solar panels that can supply us the sort of energy that could supplant that we get from the Calvin Cycle that basically reverses photosynthesis to power us. Deserts have expanded into crop-growing areas of the middle latitudes. Winter wheat in the American Great Plains? No winter... and no wheat.

[galaxy]

(10-16-2021, 09:27 AM)RELFantastic Wrote: A fictional character that is Gen Katniss is Gregg Heffley (b.1998) from Diary of a Wimpy Kid.

Where are you getting that 1998 date? I've actually thought about this book (it was mentioned on another forum I post on, and I began wondering what the exact setting was meant to portray), and here's my subjective impression:

Time and place: East Coast USA, late 1990s. Which makes sense, as the author began writing it in 1998. I've also heard that the fictional setting of the book is loosely based on a small town somewhere along the MA/RI border.

Characters and generational analysis:

Rodrick (in high school, can drive, guessing 17 for age) is clearly Generation X (mostly ignored by parents, "juvenile delinquent" sort of vibe)
Greg (in middle school, guessing 12-13 for age) seems like a bit X/Millennial borderline
Manny (is 3, the only character with an explicitly stated age) doesn't have much characterization beyond a generic "obnoxious little kid" personality, but is very protected and pampered by the parents, fitting with the dramatic tightening in child nurture characteristic of a 3T.

So we can guess their birth dates as roughly 1994-95, 1985-86, and 1980-81.
The parents have no clear age indicators, but if we assume they're about 40, that puts them in 1958, Boomer/X borderline, which feels about right.


You know, after writing this...is there anyone who would be interested in a thread where people can post generational analyses of literature and film? I've become interested in doing it lately, because I just keep seeing the saeculum in everything. I think I posted a few months ago about Voyagers, a movie that has an extremely cliche and unoriginal story (basically "Lord of the Flies in space, and also sexy") and countless plotholes, but that also shows an extremely clear progression through a saeculum, traversing five turnings from High to High. It's so clear and obvious that if I didn't know better I would wonder if the director was basing it on T4T.

I also read Genesis for a college class I'm in (it's not a religious class, it's about "new beginnings" in stories), and saw it there too. Adam and Eve start off living in a 1T (life is very easy, there is a lot of doing and very little thinking or feeling), enter a 2T after eating the fruit (they become "awakened" after eating it), then enter a 3T (a great deal of thinking and feeling, but physical life becomes hard) after they are expelled from the garden. I actually wrote an essay on this progression (though obviously I didn't use any obvious T4T language in it).

S+H weren't kidding when they talked about how deeply embedded it is into human society.

[RELFantastic]

(11-14-2021, 10:41 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(10-16-2021, 09:27 AM)RELFantastic Wrote: A fictional character that is Gen Katniss is Gregg Heffley (b.1998) from Diary of a Wimpy Kid.

Where are you getting that 1998 date? I've actually thought about this book (it was mentioned on another forum I post on, and I began wondering what the exact setting was meant to portray), and here's my subjective impression:

Time and place: East Coast USA, late 1990s. Which makes sense, as the author began writing it in 1998. I've also heard that the fictional setting of the book is loosely based on a small town somewhere along the MA/RI border.

Characters and generational analysis:

Rodrick (in high school, can drive, guessing 17 for age) is clearly Generation X (mostly ignored by parents, "juvenile delinquent" sort of vibe)
Greg (in middle school, guessing 12-13 for age) seems like a bit X/Millennial borderline
Manny (is 3, the only character with an explicitly stated age) doesn't have much characterization beyond a generic "obnoxious little kid" personality, but is very protected and pampered by the parents, fitting with the dramatic tightening in child nurture characteristic of a 3T.

So we can guess their birth dates as roughly 1994-95, 1985-86, and 1980-81.
The parents have no clear age indicators, but if we assume they're about 40, that puts them in 1958, Boomer/X borderline, which feels about right.


You know, after writing this...is there anyone who would be interested in a thread where people can post generational analyses of literature and film? I've become interested in doing it lately, because I just keep seeing the saeculum in everything. I think I posted a few months ago about Voyagers, a movie that has an extremely cliche and unoriginal story (basically "Lord of the Flies in space, and also sexy") and countless plotholes, but that also shows an extremely clear progression through a saeculum, traversing five turnings from High to High. It's so clear and obvious that if I didn't know better I would wonder if the director was basing it on T4T.

I also read Genesis for a college class I'm in (it's not a religious class, it's about "new beginnings" in stories), and saw it there too. Adam and Eve start off living in a 1T (life is very easy, there is a lot of doing and very little thinking or feeling), enter a 2T after eating the fruit (they become "awakened" after eating it), then enter a 3T (a great deal of thinking and feeling, but physical life becomes hard) after they are expelled from the garden. I actually wrote an essay on this progression (though obviously I didn't use any obvious T4T language in it).

S+H weren't kidding when they talked about how deeply embedded it is into human society.

The actor who plays Gregg Hefley in the 2010 Diary of a Wimpy Kid film, Zachary Gordon, was born in 1998.

Though a thread based on generational analysis of film and literature could be interesting. I have also thought about that before with how generational archetypes can work with film, literature, and even gaming.

[Eric the Green]

(10-19-2021, 12:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Katniss Everdeen, a hero of The Hunger Games, exemplifies someone living in a dystopian society, best described as an exaggeration of all that is wrong with a 3T carried to its logical conclusion, a grossly-inegalitarian order in which survival in a ferociously competitive world offers few rewards in return. Sports are a form of entertainment, but unlike those of recent times in which the losers are still well-paid entertainers so long as they qualify for their teams, sports become winner-take-all... and there is not much to take.

Dystopian fiction typically expresses what people most dread about their time. The Hunger Games are made for largely a Millennial audience, an audience that has the most to fear of bad trends of their time.....

So anyone the age of Justin Bieber and Harry Styles and Miley Cyrus, or older, is born into today's dystopia, and experience their world as one of dread.

Seem's plausible, although I myself feel that we have entered this dystopia, and it could drain away my boomer optimism and idealism.

Today we learn that the nuclear deal with Iran that Trump pulled out of for no reason can't just be put back the way it was. Because Iran has now developed its potential nuclear weapons to the point that it is almost able to produce a bomb. And they demand that the next president won't pull out of it, which I doubt could be arranged even if there was a Treaty ratified by the US Senate, which there won't be, and could also be revoked, especially since we might want to sanction Iran again anyway for further misbehavior. And it has to be redone anyway 4 years from now. So, where does that leave us? Can Iran's nuclear knowledge and progress be destroyed and put back as it was before Trump? Can all the sanctions Trump put on Iran be taken off? If not, do we unleash Israel to do cyber attacks or bombing? Can we bomb and destroy their nuclear program anyway? Do we keep tightening sanctions so that 4 years from now Iran will elect a moderate again? What does a world with a nuclear Iran look like? Does it attack Israel and thus start a war with the USA?

Meanwhile, most countries around the world have reverted to varying degrees of tyranny or authoritarian rule. Where does that leave peoples' aspirations? Do civil wars erupt? China seeks to expand its tyranny to Taiwan, and the USA and its allies are bosltering Taiwan's defenses. Possible war looms. Russia threatens to expand its tyranny to Ukraine. Possible war looms.

And today we learned that the omicron variant has arrived in California. Can the guy be quaranteened? Contact traced? Are there more cases here already? Meanwhile the Delta variant remains on the loose. Americans and many others still refuse to get vaccinated in numbers too high to stop the pandemic. We are unable to get the world vaccinated, and distrust of their authoritarian government causes many people in other countries to resist. 

And the COP 26 conference failed, so climate change rages on. Nothing is being done. So we can expect more and more fires, more and more floods and storms, more droughts and water shortages, and higher prices for food, prices that are already now subject to major disruptions from the bouncing economy due to covid restrictions and lifted restrictions.Tipping points that leave us in hothouse earth for thousands of years loom.

While many others peoples live in abject tyranny, in the USA over 40% approve of a madman tyrant liar almost as much as they approve of an honest, hardworking president. Republicans appear ready to take back congress, ending for now all hope of a new progressive era. They are ready to purge voter rolls, impose voting restrictions, gerrymander additional seats, replace election officials with party hacks, and empower legislatures to determine who wins elections.

No-one listens to anyone on-line. You can provide as many facts and truths as you can, and people do not consider them. As far as most people are concerned these days, the only reality is what we already believe. Cognitive dissonance reigns, and can't be broken. What we've got here is, failure to communicate. And boy, are we gonna get it!





Sorry to be so pessimistic. I still harbor some hope that Republicans will lose their current favor, thus allowing us to swerve and shift to a better course. It's all on the ballot.

[galaxy]

I thought I'd throw in - and I'm not sure why I forgot to include this in an earlier post - in The Hunger Games, the successful revolution takes place not long after the 75th annual Hunger Games.

So if we assume that that revolution occurred during "Year 76" after the first Games, and that the first Games took place a year or two after the past failed revolution, that's 77-78 years between the end of the first revolution and the start of the second.

1783 -> 1861 is 78 years. So if we propose that civil wars by their nature cut turnings and/or saecula short, then it fits.

Though, it should be noted that this results in an exceptionally short Crisis. If we assume that the 4T began with the poisonous berries/two winners incident at the end of the first book, that's maybe two years from start to finish. So perhaps the 4T had already begun (though the society as it is depicted at the start of the first book seems pretty 3T), or perhaps it extended for some time after the end of the third book (it seems that a new government had not yet been fully set up at that time), but either way the saecular timing fits.

It should also be noted that there is an epilogue that occurs twenty years later. I assume that would be late 1T, making Katniss's young children in that epilogue Prophets. An "equivalent birthyear" in our saeculum would be ~1955.

Also, in the third book Katniss says at one point that everyone 14 and older in the revolutionary movement is given the title "Soldier" (which is relevant because her younger sister is 13 at the time). If we call that a generational divide, then those 14-year-olds would have been born roughly 60 years after the presumed end of the last 4T. For comparison, the youngest GIs were born 60 years after the end of the last 4T, and the youngest Millennials were born probably 57 years after (2002). Katniss would have been 17 at the time, making an "equivalent birthyear" something like 1922 or 1999. So "Generation Katniss" is an apt name indeed, though I think a better conception of the Millennial Generation splits it into three parts: 1982-1987 (6y), 1988-1996 (8y), 1997-2002 (6y).


Relevant notes about my personal perspective here (let me know if you spot any biases that this could cause): I first read the series during 2011 and 2012, in fifth grade, at the age of 10 and 11. I was living in Mississippi at the time (and hating every moment of it - the Midwest will definitely always be my home). I enjoyed the series a lot, though at the time I don't think I appreciated the true seriousness and darkness of it, and certainly didn't appreciate how relevant it was to the present.


Also, for Eric, as RELFantastic never explained it:
Vine was a smartphone app that became a short-lived but influential cultural phenomenon during the period of roughly 2013 to 2016, centered around posting seven-second-long video clips. It developed a reputation for exceptionally creative (and often a bit absurd) humor in its limited format, and many popular vines are still often quoted by young people today and have left a lasting impact on language. For example, the word "yeet" was popularized by a Vine.
EDM is a catchall term for several genres of electronic music which were very popular during the same time period, seemingly filling the gap between the end of the rock era (~2010) and what appears to be the beginning of the rap era (~2017).

[pbrower2a]

(12-01-2021, 07:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(10-19-2021, 12:36 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Katniss Everdeen, a hero of The Hunger Games, exemplifies someone living in a dystopian society, best described as an exaggeration of all that is wrong with a 3T carried to its logical conclusion, a grossly-inegalitarian order in which survival in a ferociously competitive world offers few rewards in return. Sports are a form of entertainment, but unlike those of recent times in which the losers are still well-paid entertainers so long as they qualify for their teams, sports become winner-take-all... and there is not much to take.

Dystopian fiction typically expresses what people most dread about their time. The Hunger Games are made for largely a Millennial audience, an audience that has the most to fear of bad trends of their time.....

So anyone the age of Justin Bieber and Harry Styles and Miley Cyrus, or older, is born into today's dystopia, and experience their world as one of dread.

Seem's plausible, although I myself feel that we have entered this dystopia, and it could drain away my boomer optimism and idealism.

The two biggest threats to the heritage of American democracy are aristocratic tendencies (government is to represent economic and bureaucratic power instead of people, which was the norm of feudal societies) and genocidal fascism. Those two threats usually link.  Both are adept at creating fear of bogeys of leftist extremism even where such is rare or weak. Both ultimately serve the same class interests. Both are brutal even if the aristocrats have a veneer of civilization. The veneer of aristocratic civilization results from peons being worked to exhaustion for bare survival, which is the real nastiness of the aristocratic order toppled in the French Revolution.  

Economic elites typically sacrifice the freedom of others to enhance their Power, Indulgence, and Gain (PIG is a deliberate allusion).  Bureaucratic elites do not so much create wealth as they devour it in return for enforcing the rules that an aristocratic elite wants used for stifling competition and denying opportunity. There need be no native aristocracy; indeed the Soviet nomenklatura formed after the old aristocratic elite had been dispossessed, exiled, or exterminated. Commie elites started acting much like the aristocratic elites as bureaucrats set their children up to take on the 'family business' of ruling the supposedly "classless society" much like the pigs in George Orwell's Animal Farm. 

Quote:Today we learn that the nuclear deal with Iran that Trump pulled out of for no reason can't just be put back the way it was. Because Iran has now developed its potential nuclear weapons to the point that it is almost able to produce a bomb. And they demand that the next president won't pull out of it, which I doubt could be arranged even if there was a Treaty ratified by the US Senate, which there won't be, and could also be revoked, especially since we might want to sanction Iran again anyway for further misbehavior. And it has to be redone anyway 4 years from now. So, where does that leave us? Can Iran's nuclear knowledge and progress be destroyed and put back as it was before Trump? Can all the sanctions Trump put on Iran be taken off? If not, do we unleash Israel to do cyber attacks or bombing? Can we bomb their nuclear program anyway? Do we keep tightening sanctions so that 4 years from now Iran will elect a moderate again? What does a world with a nuclear Iran look like? Does it attack Israel and thus start a war with the USA?

Donald Trump is a fool. He relies heavily on hunches instead of contemplation. Maybe he thought he could tear up an agreement (especially because President Obama cut the deal) and get better because, as Trump sees things, he is a great leader and Obama is singularly incompetent and disloyal. 

If I were to ever get a managerial job, one of the first things I would ask is what my predecessor did right. Such is a low priority for change, as I will be looking for other things to change. I would never change anything for the sake of change. Failure, obsolescence, or turpitude will get the ax in short order. Such will need action.  Fine-tuning comes later.   

Quote:Meanwhile, most countries around the world have reverted to varying degrees of tyranny or authoritarian rule. Where does that leave peoples' aspirations? Do civil wars erupt? China seeks to expand its tyranny to Taiwan, and the USA and its allies are bolstering Taiwan's defenses. Possible war looms. Russia threatens to expand its tyranny to Ukraine. Possible war looms.

We will be back at war with Afghanistan soon enough. 

Quote:And today we learned that the omicron variant has arrived in California. Can the guy be quarantined? Contact traced? Are there more cases here already? Meanwhile the Delta variant remains on the loose. Americans and many others still refuse to get vaccinated in numbers too high to stop the pandemic. We are unable to get the world vaccinated, and distrust of their authoritarian government cases many people in other countries to resist. 

I'd love to make posters or at least write copy for them. "This needle protects you for COVID-19, and this one sedates you from a stint on a ventilator at which you might die". I could even make one for a Right-to-Life group on the ground that stillbirths as the result of COVID-19 kill a pre-born child with much the effect of an abortion. The Right-to-Life people are generally arch-conservatives, and as such they closely fit the demographics of anti-vaxxers. If such is what it takes to get one conservative constituency to get inoculated and reduce the risk for the rest of us, then so be it.  

Quote:And the COP 26 conference failed, so climate change rages on. Nothing is being done. So we can expect more and more fires, more and more floods and storms, more droughts and water shortages, and higher prices for food, prices that are already now subject to major disruptions from the bouncing economy due to covid restrictions and lifted restrictions.

Global warming is the 'frog in the warm water on the stove' reality for many of us.  I can easily imagine the paradise Csb climate of San Francisco becoming a BWhn climate like the Atacama should the rain patterns shift poleward. (Csb is a long-warm-summer climate with winter rains and summer drought; BWhn is a moderately-warm, foggy desert climate like that of Lima, Peru).  Where  I live the climate will be more like Nashville than like Detroit. That's not too bad, except that one will need an air-conditioner that only accelerates the deposition of waste heat into the atmosphere even if it be solar-powered.

Quote:While many others peoples live in abject tyranny, in the USA over 40% approve of a madman tyrant liar almost as much as they approve of an honest, hardworking president. Republicans appear ready to take back congress, ending for now all hope of a new progressive era. They are ready to purge voter rolls, impose voting restrictions, gerrymander additional seats, replace election officials with party hacks, and empower legislatures to determine who wins elections.

The dream of the Hard Right is that government represents wealth and bureaucratic power instead of the people, while staging mass rallies as the sole expression of political life. Like this:





If you cannot cheer the catastrophic decision of a bombastic, irresponsible, cruel leader then you have become a pariah. Of course great legions would march four years later through Rome in victory much like those of the Roman Empire nearly two millennia earlier. Those legions would arrive with flags bearing 48 stars and 13 stripes.

Dictatorial regimes typically impose spectacular harm upon the people.

[/quote]

Quote:[quote pid='79718' dateline='1638405597']
No-one listens to anyone on-line. You can provide as many facts and truths as you can, and people do not consider them. As far as most people are concerned these days, the only reality is what we already believe. Cognitive dissonance reigns, and can't be broken. What we've got here is, failure to communicate. And boy, are we gonna get it!

[/quote]

To the contrary: liberals are far more subtle in their thoughts and expressions and have more foresight than fascists. Liberals are more likely to form a workable social order because liberalism is far more inclusive. We recognize the legitimacy of cultural differences and can ignore those when something else is more important -- like liberty and such basic decencies as fair pay under good working conditions, quality education, justice, environmental protection, and social equity. We may dislike war, but if we ever come close to victory we can do far better than genocidal tyrants at winning the peace. We are modest enough to deny infallibility or omniscience, but we usually prove less foolhardy with no loss of courage.

[Eric the Green]

(12-02-2021, 01:07 AM)galaxy Wrote: I thought I'd throw in - and I'm not sure why I forgot to include this in an earlier post - in The Hunger Games, the successful revolution takes place not long after the 75th annual Hunger Games.

So if we assume that that revolution occurred during "Year 76" after the first Games, and that the first Games took place a year or two after the past failed revolution, that's 77-78 years between the end of the first revolution and the start of the second.

1783 -> 1861 is 78 years. So if we propose that civil wars by their nature cut turnings and/or saecula short, then it fits.

Though, it should be noted that this results in an exceptionally short Crisis. If we assume that the 4T began with the poisonous berries/two winners incident at the end of the first book, that's maybe two years from start to finish. So perhaps the 4T had already begun (though the society as it is depicted at the start of the first book seems pretty 3T), or perhaps it extended for some time after the end of the third book (it seems that a new government had not yet been fully set up at that time), but either way the saecular timing fits.

It should also be noted that there is an epilogue that occurs twenty years later. I assume that would be late 1T, making Katniss's young children in that epilogue Prophets. An "equivalent birthyear" in our saeculum would be ~1955.

Also, in the third book Katniss says at one point that everyone 14 and older in the revolutionary movement is given the title "Soldier" (which is relevant because her younger sister is 13 at the time). If we call that a generational divide, then those 14-year-olds would have been born roughly 60 years after the presumed end of the last 4T. For comparison, the youngest GIs were born 60 years after the end of the last 4T, and the youngest Millennials were born probably 57 years after (2002). Katniss would have been 17 at the time, making an "equivalent birthyear" something like 1922 or 1999. So "Generation Katniss" is an apt name indeed, though I think a better conception of the Millennial Generation splits it into three parts: 1982-1987 (6y), 1988-1996 (8y), 1997-2002 (6y).


Relevant notes about my personal perspective here (let me know if you spot any biases that this could cause): I first read the series during 2011 and 2012, in fifth grade, at the age of 10 and 11. I was living in Mississippi at the time (and hating every moment of it - the Midwest will definitely always be my home). I enjoyed the series a lot, though at the time I don't think I appreciated the true seriousness and darkness of it, and certainly didn't appreciate how relevant it was to the present.


Also, for Eric, as RELFantastic never explained it:
Vine was a smartphone app that became a short-lived but influential cultural phenomenon during the period of roughly 2013 to 2016, centered around posting seven-second-long video clips. It developed a reputation for exceptionally creative (and often a bit absurd) humor in its limited format, and many popular vines are still often quoted by young people today and have left a lasting impact on language. For example, the word "yeet" was popularized by a Vine.
EDM is a catchall term for several genres of electronic music which were very popular during the same time period, seemingly filling the gap between the end of the rock era (~2010) and what appears to be the beginning of the rap era (~2017).

Thanks for your reply. I am very familiar with EDM, but not with Vine, and not with The Hunger Games. I know the latter is an important part of today's pop culture though. I would not associate with a sub-generation an app that had so short a life as Vine and created a word so unfamiliar to most of us, though.

I don't propose that civil wars cut turnings short. I assume that the anomaly which the authors posit was less anomalous than they claim, and that the civil war 4T stretched at least back to 1850, and that the 2010s were basically the 1850s returned, although I still think we are only at the equivalent of the year 1856, the year of Bleeding Kansas and the violence in the Senate of Sumner-Brooks. Rather than shortening 4Ts, the Civil War and today's Cold Civil War (so-far only cold) relates to the double rhythm, which I associate with the fact that Neptune's orbit is twice that of Uranus, and was an idea that I started here on the original forum long ago.

[galaxy]

(12-02-2021, 01:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your reply. I am very familiar with EDM, but not with Vine, and not with The Hunger Games. I know the latter is an important part of today's pop culture though. I would not associate with a sub-generation an app that had so short a life as Vine and created a word so unfamiliar to most of us, though.

I don't propose that civil wars cut turnings short. I assume that the anomaly which the authors posit was less anomalous than they claim, and that the civil war 4T stretched at least back to 1850, and that the 2010s were basically the 1850s returned, although I still think we are only at the equivalent of the year 1856, the year of Bleeding Kansas and the violence in the Senate of Sumner-Brooks. Rather than shortening 4Ts, the Civil War and today's Cold Civil War (so-far only cold) relates to the double rhythm, which I associate with the fact that Neptune's orbit is twice that of Uranus, and was an idea that I started here on the original forum long ago.

I promise you every member of this subgeneration is very familiar with the word "yeet," and something need not be long-lasting to leave a long-lasting impact.

I think it's very unlikely that the Civil War 4T began any earlier than 1857, and the most likely starting point by far is the election of Lincoln in 1860. There is just a very clear turn from inaction to action in the country.

If the Civil War 4T was longer than five years, it's because it extended beyond the end of the war, possibly as far as the end of Reconstruction in 1877. (The following turnings would presumably be something like 1877-1893, 1893-1912, and 1912-1929).

I've realized since writing my previous post that obviously the 4T must have extended somewhat beyond the Hunger Games revolution, with the comparison in our world being Tunisia, which had a revolution right at the beginning of its 4T in 2011.

As for the double-rhythm, I remain skeptical of any astronomical influence on generational cycles on Earth, but it's clear that there is some kind of alternating pattern, and I have already described in another post the way in which it can be self-generating.

I've also seen on another website a theory of a "second-order cycle" in which each saeculum also has the character of a turning. The author of the page goes on to describe a pattern in the severity of 4Ts - from most severe to least, they are the 4Ts that end the 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st saecula (which puts us in the mildest possible 4T, which certainly seemed to be the case prior to 2020 and may still be the case now).

Fitting that into the double rhythm, the "Unifying 4Ts" are the ones that come at the end of the 2nd and 4th saecula (therefore preceding the "static" 1T/3T saecula), while the "Fracturing 4Ts" precede the "dynamic" 2T/4T saecula.

This also fits well with the comparison of the current 4T to the Glorious Revolution, 240 years ago.

[pbrower2a]

(12-03-2021, 12:47 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(12-02-2021, 01:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your reply. I am very familiar with EDM, but not with Vine, and not with The Hunger Games. I know the latter is an important part of today's pop culture though. I would not associate with a sub-generation an app that had so short a life as Vine and created a word so unfamiliar to most of us, though.

I don't propose that civil wars cut turnings short. I assume that the anomaly which the authors posit was less anomalous than they claim, and that the civil war 4T stretched at least back to 1850, and that the 2010s were basically the 1850s returned, although I still think we are only at the equivalent of the year 1856, the year of Bleeding Kansas and the violence in the Senate of Sumner-Brooks. Rather than shortening 4Ts, the Civil War and today's Cold Civil War (so-far only cold) relates to the double rhythm, which I associate with the fact that Neptune's orbit is twice that of Uranus, and was an idea that I started here on the original forum long ago.

I promise you every member of this subgeneration is very familiar with the word "yeet," and something need not be long-lasting to leave a long-lasting impact.

The Pearl Harbor attack (1941), 9/11, and the Capitol Putsch were all over in a short time.  

Quote:I think it's very unlikely that the Civil War 4T began any earlier than 1857, and the most likely starting point by far is the election of Lincoln in 1860. There is just a very clear turn from inaction to action in the country.

The compromises that kept Americans from shooting at each other over slavery depended upon a generation more intent on salving things than solving things having significant power in the political system. The Compromise Generation aged into irrelevance, and the Panic of 1857 created a foul mood that was not going to be resolved except with a military solution. Just think of how Germans did with politics until the economic meltdown that began in 1929 and became severe in 1931. Germans were looking for scapegoats when solutions that involved give-and-take became irrelevant.

Quote:If the Civil War 4T was longer than five years, it's because it extended beyond the end of the war, possibly as far as the end of Reconstruction in 1877. (The following turnings would presumably be something like 1877-1893, 1893-1912, and 1912-1929).

The Gilded Age begins when people start caring more about getting rich or at least economic survival than about the Civil War. In the South, white people thought that getting rich meant marginalizing black people in politics, economics, and law. 

Quote:I've realized since writing my previous post that obviously the 4T must have extended somewhat beyond the Hunger Games revolution, with the comparison in our world being Tunisia, which had a revolution right at the beginning of its 4T in 2011.

I see the Capitol Putsch as a sort of revolution as an attempt to break the rules of the expected transfer of power. It resembles (at least to me) the the Bolshevik takeover of the Winter Palace in style if not agenda.  

Quote:As for the double-rhythm, I remain skeptical of any astronomical influence on generational cycles on Earth, but it's clear that there is some kind of alternating pattern, and I have already described in another post the way in which it can be self-generating.

I disagree with Eric on astrology, but lunar and planetary motions are at the least timing mechanisms. Menstruation is derived from Latin mensis  (month). The numbered years of grade-school education (K-12) correspond closely with an orbit of Jupiter around the sun. 29 years (one orbit of Saturn) is a close proxy for the time from birth to the completion of professional education for attorneys, physicians, and architects. One orbit of Uranus (84 years) is close to some measure of either a long human life or the survival of childhood memories of the past (and those childhood memories are often far more powerful than most people realize. That is all more coincidence than cause. The day-night and seasonal cycles are far more powerful, and the Earth is not one of the astrological planets.

Quote:I've also seen on another website a theory of a "second-order cycle" in which each saeculum also has the character of a turning. The author of the page goes on to describe a pattern in the severity of 4Ts - from most severe to least, they are the 4Ts that end the 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st saecula (which puts us in the mildest possible 4T, which certainly seemed to be the case prior to 2020 and may still be the case now).

This time, nukes are seemingly everywhere, and any wise leader is legitimately scared. A sneak attack on many countries is much more reckless than  it used to be. 





Easy pickings might not be so easy as they seem. Italians (probably stooges of the Duce) had signs naming "Corsica" and "Malta" as territories to be 'redeemed' on behalf of restoring the glory of the Roman Empire.  (Never mind that Ethiopia and Somalia had never been part of the Roman Empire). Within roughly a year Ethiopia would be the first country liberated from the Axis yoke, and in roughly four years later some of the most impressive legions of all time would march in triumph through Rome (mostly with forty-eight stars and thirteen stripes), and that within five years Mussolini would be executed with his cadaver displayed in disgrace.  

Quote: Fitting that into the double rhythm, the "Unifying 4Ts" are the ones that come at the end of the 2nd and 4th saecula (therefore preceding the "static" 1T/3T saecula), while the "Fracturing 4Ts" precede the "dynamic" 2T/4T saecula.

I'm not sure that any longer cycle applies. There is just too little data. This 4T could culminate in something much less dangerous because COVID-19 suggests a saying that Gene Roddenberry attributed to the Klingons:

"Only fools fight in a burning house".

The Black Death was hardly a warlike time even if people were dying as if in a particularly-nasty war.  COVID-19 kills on the scale of a war that political and military figures wage with incompetent generalship. I can predict this: the next Crisis Era will happen as the $#!+ hits the fan when global warming inundates huge tracts of some of the farmland necessary for feeding hundreds of millions of people and when some densely-populated areas get transformed into deserts. Hunger brings out the worst in politics and other aspects of human behavior. 

Ask yourself how many Bangladeshi peasants do you want to invite into your country? King Neptune will confiscate land of peasant farmers just as ruthlessly as Stalin did -- but at the least the recent freehold farmers of the USSR could survive as serfs of the Soviet State on collective farms that used to be their property. "King Neptune" won't even be that generous. That is a near certainty if sea levels rise.  

Quote:This also fits well with the comparison of the current 4T to the Glorious Revolution, 240 years ago.

The Glorious Revolution is no longer a 'sexy' part of historical study.

[Eric the Green]

(12-03-2021, 12:47 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(12-02-2021, 01:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Thanks for your reply. I am very familiar with EDM, but not with Vine, and not with The Hunger Games. I know the latter is an important part of today's pop culture though. I would not associate with a sub-generation an app that had so short a life as Vine and created a word so unfamiliar to most of us, though.

I don't propose that civil wars cut turnings short. I assume that the anomaly which the authors posit was less anomalous than they claim, and that the civil war 4T stretched at least back to 1850, and that the 2010s were basically the 1850s returned, although I still think we are only at the equivalent of the year 1856, the year of Bleeding Kansas and the violence in the Senate of Sumner-Brooks. Rather than shortening 4Ts, the Civil War and today's Cold Civil War (so-far only cold) relates to the double rhythm, which I associate with the fact that Neptune's orbit is twice that of Uranus, and was an idea that I started here on the original forum long ago.

I promise you every member of this subgeneration is very familiar with the word "yeet," and something need not be long-lasting to leave a long-lasting impact.

Every member of every generation should be familiar with names suggested for generations or sub-generations. Generational theory is for everyone, not just for one sub-generation or another. I never heard the word "yeet" before your post.

Quote:I think it's very unlikely that the Civil War 4T began any earlier than 1857, and the most likely starting point by far is the election of Lincoln in 1860. There is just a very clear turn from inaction to action in the country.

If the Civil War 4T was longer than five years, it's because it extended beyond the end of the war, possibly as far as the end of Reconstruction in 1877. (The following turnings would presumably be something like 1877-1893, 1893-1912, and 1912-1929).

A 4T is not limited to the time-span of a war. The war is usually just the climactic phase. The USA country was dividing starting in 1850. Our own 4T started in 2008 and we have been in a condition nearly identical to that of the 1850s. I see Bleeding Kansas and the Brooks attack on Sumner in the Senate as similar to attacks on capitols in 2020 and January 6th, 2021. We are at 1856-57. Our 4T has about 8 years to run. If abortion is outlawed, it could be our Dred Scott or our fugitive slave law. A war could still happen, starting as late as 2025. It could be both domestic and foreign. It could be less severe than previous wars during 4th turnings.

Quote:As for the double-rhythm, I remain skeptical of any astronomical influence on generational cycles on Earth, but it's clear that there is some kind of alternating pattern, and I have already described in another post the way in which it can be self-generating.

It's good that you can see the double rhythm. For some reason, 4T fans and those interested in generations are not usually open to astrology, but I will continue to mention the close correlations of the solar system cycles and our cycles on Earth. We live in the modern delusion that we are separate from each other and from the cosmos around us. It is not so. Older societies were built on the model of the sky and governed their lives by its cycles. We are obsessed with our own machines and think the world is one. It is not.

Quote:I've also seen on another website a theory of a "second-order cycle" in which each saeculum also has the character of a turning. The author of the page goes on to describe a pattern in the severity of 4Ts - from most severe to least, they are the 4Ts that end the 4th, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st saecula (which puts us in the mildest possible 4T, which certainly seemed to be the case prior to 2020 and may still be the case now).

Fitting that into the double rhythm, the "Unifying 4Ts" are the ones that come at the end of the 2nd and 4th saecula (therefore preceding the "static" 1T/3T saecula), while the "Fracturing 4Ts" precede the "dynamic" 2T/4T saecula.

This also fits well with the comparison of the current 4T to the Glorious Revolution, 240 years ago.

I don't go along with the idea that 4 seacula make a mega-saeculum. The correlations people have made do not fit. But there is a double rhythm I see, and I agree the Glorious Saeculum fits into the pattern that includes ours. There are various ways of contrasting these. In one set of saecula, the foreign threat is more demanding and the country is more unified. The attitude tends to be more outward-looking. In the other set, the threat within is more demanding, and the country is in danger or splitting into factions. The attitude is more self-examining and inward. But, the similarities from turning to turning are still greater than the differences, and some of each applies to both sets.

[Eric the Green]

Actually, and people don't often reckon with this, but the Earth is by far the most important planet in astrology. The day-night cycle is charted by the houses of a horoscope, and the seasonal cycle is exactly the zodiac.

[Anthony '58]

(10-16-2021, 09:27 AM)RELFantastic Wrote: In this post, I will be breaking down the two waves of Millennials, Echo Boomers being the first wave and Generation Katniss being the second wave. The main theme of this definition is not just about coming of age in the early 21st century, but its also about defining generations by the barriers of major world events.


Here are the ranges:

First Wave Millennials (Echo Boomers): 1982-1991 (give or take late 1981-mid 1991/Classes of 2000-2009)

Can fall into either first or second wave: 1992-1993 (give or take late 1991-mid 1993/Classes of 2010-2011)

Second Wave Millennials (Generation Katniss): 1994-2003 (give or take late 1993-mid 2003/Classes of 2012-2021)


Going by growing up range of 7-17, Echo Boomers would have all “grew up” (meaning both childhood and adolescence) between 1989-2008, which was a post-berlin wall pre-recession world. Generation Katniss would have all “grew up” (both childhood and adolescence) between 2001-2020, which was a post-9/11 pre-COVID-19 world. Together, that makes the Millennials “growing up” period as 1989-2020.


Echo Boomers were born during the sharp rise in birth rates between 3.68 and above 4.1 from about 1982-1991, with parents mainly being Baby Boomers.

Generation Katniss were born during the sharp decline in birth rates between 3.8 and below 4.1 from about 1994-2003, with parents mainly being Gen Xers.


Echo Boomers were the primary cultural influencers between 2008-2017.

Generation Katniss are the primary cultural influencers between 2020-2029.


Echo Boomers were the first to spend a primarily post-Cold War childhood, as members of Echo Boomers who were alive during the Fall of the Berlin Wall were 0-7.

Generation Katniss were the first to primarily spend a post-9/11 childhood, as members of Generation Katniss who were alive during the 9/11 attacks were 0-7.


Echo Boomers were the elementary schoolers during Clinton’s first term (1993-1996) which can be commonly be referred to as “core 90s“, and teens during Bush’s first term (2001-2004) which can commonly be referred to as “early millennium era”.

Generation Katniss were the elementary schoolers during Bush’s second term (2005-2008) which can commonly be referred to as “McBling era” and teens during Obama’s second term (2013-2016) which can commonly be referred to as “Vine/EDM Era.”


Echo Boomers were 4-13 during the release of Windows 95, which revolutionized the way we use the internet.

Generation Katniss were 4-13 during the release of the IPhone, which revolutionized the way we use our mobile devices.


Echo Boomers are the main 90s kids and the main 2000s graduates.

Generation Katniss are the main 2000s kids and the main 2010s teens.


Echo Boomers were the last to spend a primarily pre-recession adolescence, as members of Echo Boomers were 17-26 when it started.

Generation Katniss were the last to spend a primarily pre-COVID adolescence, as members of Katniss were 17-26 when it started.


Echo Boomers entered the workforce during the massive economic boom of the late 90s and into the 2000s, right before the Great Recession hit.

Generation Katniss entered the workforce during the longest economic expansion in history which was after the Great Recession ended, and right before the COVID recession started.


Echo Boomers largely came of age during the post-9/11 atmospheric 2000s under the Bush administration and were later struck by the Great Recession/Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

Generation Katniss largely came of age during the tumultuous events of the 2010s under Obama’s second term and later Trump, then were later struck by the COVID-19 Pandemic as well as its economic effects.


Echo Boomers were either the first time voters of the Iraq-focused 2004 election or the first time voters of the recession-focused 2008 election.

Generation Katniss were either the first time voters of the nationalistic/polarizing 2016 election or the first time voters of the COVID-focused/polarizing 2020 election.


Echo Boomers came of age after the Dot Com Bubble began but before the Great Recession ended (2000-2009)

Generation Katniss came of age after the Iraq War ended but before the Afghanistan War ended (2012-2021)


A fictional character that is Echo Boomer is Cady Heron (b.1987) from Mean Girls.

A fictional character that is Gen Katniss is Gregg Heffley (b.1998) from Diary of a Wimpy Kid.


There are obviously outliers. 1982 came of age under Clinton, first time voted in 2000, and were never in high school under Bush, and 1991 came of age under Obama, first time voted in 2012, and were never in high school under Bush’s second term.

1994 came of age under Obama’s first term, were in high school under Bush, and first time voted in 2012, and 2003 came of age under Biden, were never in high school under Obama, and will vote first time in 2024.

However, these years still have some strong traits that pull them back into their cohort. Such as the workforce traits, and still being in elementary school during presidential terms like 1982 being in elementary school under Clinton and 2003 being in elementary school under Bush.


But what about 1992 and 1993? Well, I think they can go into either Echo Boomers or Generation Katniss. They were born after birth rates began to decline but before they fell below 4.0, are 90s/2000s kids hybrids, graduated high school during the 2010s though spent most of their teens in the 2000s, could fight in Iraq, were never in elementary school during either Clinton’s first term or Bush’s second, spent most of their childhood before 9/11, yet spent most of their teens after the recession began and could have even entered the workforce then, etc.


Also they share the same Chinese Zodiac Signs:

Dog: 1982 ~ 1994

Pig: 1983 ~ 1995

Rat: 1984 ~ 1996

Ox: 1985 ~ 1997

Tiger: 1986 ~ 1998

Rabbit: 1987 ~ 1999

Dragon: 1988 ~ 2000

Snake: 1989 ~ 2001

Horse: 1990 ~ 2002

Goat: 1991 ~ 2003

This concept is sort of like my concept of Baby Busters (1958-68) and Core Xers (1969-80).

The idea behind it is what generation most of the parents belonged to: Most Baby Busters had Silent parents, while most Core Xers had Boomer parents - lucky them! - as did, rather obviously, the "Echo Boomers."