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Generic Ballot for Congress
#1
We are now less than a year away from deciding what sort of Congress we shall have in 2018. Nate Silver has some topical analysis.

Democrats have a marked edge in the Congressional ballot -- nearly 10% at times. That is huge. Are Re0publicans likely to reduce that margin significantly?


(Nate Silver, at 538.com)


Quote:The generic congressional ballot, even more than a year before a midterm, has historically been quite predictive of what will eventually occur in the following year. It was predictive in April, and it’s even more predictive now. You can see this phenomenon in the chart below. The chart shows the margin by which the presidential party leads on the generic ballot in an average of polls in October1 a year before the midterm compared with the national House margin in the midterm election. Every midterm cycle since 1938 is included, with the exception of 1942 and 1990, for which we don’t have polling at this point in the cycle.

[Image: enten-pollapalooza-1109.png?w=575&h=519&...strip=info]

The generic ballot polls a year from the election and the eventual House results are strongly correlated (+0.90). Importantly, past elections suggest that any big movement on the generic ballot from this point to the midterm tends to go against the president’s party.2 That movement explains why the Democrats lost ground in 2010 and 2014 in the generic ballot polls when they controlled the White House, while they maintained their lead in 2006 when Republicans held the White House. (With a similar set of data, I used the generic ballot to forecast Democratic problems early on in the 2010 cycle.)

Indeed, recent election outcomes show that Republicans should be worried about what the generic ballot is showing. The results in Tuesday’s gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey were called perfectly by the generic ballot once we control for the partisan lean of each state. The special election results this year have also been in line with a big Democratic lead on the generic ballot.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...-from-now/
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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#2
Photo 
Dem lead in generic ballot polls worries GOP

Republicans head into the holiday season with a daunting number hanging over their heads — 10.7 percent.

Democrats lead their Republican rivals by 10.7 percent on the generic congressional ballot, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data. That mark is the highest the RCP’s average has gone since just before the 2010 elections, where Republicans netted 63 House seats.

It’s a gloomy sign for Republicans, and one that dovetails with President Trump’s sagging approval rating to boost Democratic optimism about taking the House and raises questions about whether Republicans will be able to take advantage of Democratic weakness on the Senate map.

“It’s always stupid to make firm predictions in anything, whether it be politics or the Super Bowl. But it seems clear we are heading in a bad direction” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.

“What we’ve seen so far this year that the constant is massive Trump unpopularity, a growing unpopularity, and we are starting to see that electorally. Knowing there’s never going to be a Donald Trump pivot in any sense, what would tell us that anything in this midterm is different?”

Democrats are pointing to promising results from the off-year elections earlier this month as a promising sign for 2018.

A resounding win by the Democrat in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as well as strong showings among suburban voters, topped the headlines. But there was more promise down the ballot in other states, too.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/361...orries-gop
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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#3
Yes and Hillary was supposed to be a shoe in for President too. Again polls without methodology are meaningless.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#4
That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points. That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.
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#5
(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points.  That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.

Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation.  Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes?  Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades.  I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#6
(11-27-2017, 11:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points.  That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.

Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation.  Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes?  Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades.  I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.

Even with Warren's estimate, that would be a 6 point lead, not 4 point. And there's no reason to think that Real Clear Politics, which skews conservative, would not reflect actual sentiment. But then, it's a long way to November 2018, and we're talking Americans here. Ughhh. So, no prediction can be certain.

The interesting thing about that issue of "concentration" was demonstrated by Virginia's results. If the blue districts really had that much concentration, the result would have been monstrously lopsided in favor of the Democratic candidate. What happened is that the rural red districts are so lopsided, that it takes huge numbers of votes from less-lopsided blue districts to offset it. The rural red districts are brim full of ill-informed, fear-based, prejudiced, fanatical voters who almost unanimously vote Republican. That fact is what rules our politics today. And they have more pull in the electoral college. Of course, in blue states, the blue districts are larger and sometimes more lopsided, and the state goes blue. But these true-blue states are not the majority of states today.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#7
(11-27-2017, 04:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(11-27-2017, 11:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points.  That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.

Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation.  Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes?  Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades.  I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.

Even with Warren's estimate, that would be a 6 point lead, not 4 point.

The line is not at a 45 degree angle.  A 10.5 point margin on the poll corresponds to an 8 point margin in the actual voting, based on the line.  Add a 4 point Republican skew, and you get an end result of 4 points.
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#8
(11-28-2017, 02:27 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(11-27-2017, 04:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(11-27-2017, 11:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points.  That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.

Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation.  Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes?  Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades.  I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.

Even with Warren's estimate, that would be a 6 point lead, not 4 point.

The line is not at a 45 degree angle.  A 10.5 point margin on the poll corresponds to an 8 point margin in the actual voting, based on the line.  Add a 4 point Republican skew, and you get an end result of 4 points.

The slope is about 1/2, which is the tangent. A program that gets the arc tangent as an angle gives about a 27-degree angle.

With a margin of -10 in the generic ballot, the average result is that the White House's Party ends up with a 10-member detriment in the House of Representatives because members in districts more aligned with the other party than R+5 (if the President is a Republican) or D+5 (if the President is a Democrat) generally lose, and those in districts about R+5 with a Republican President or D+5 with a Democratic President have about a 50-50 chance of losing. Open seats are particularly vulnerable.

Gerrymandering still helps Republicans, but perhaps not enough this time. In normal conditions (this is a Crisis Era, so much is abnormal) the politicians in an R+5 to D+5 district are usually moderates, but Republicans have nominated (and gotten elected) stark ideologues  who are anything but moderate. Extremists tend to lose in "moderate" districts in wave elections.

This election portends a wave.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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#9
Quinnipiac University Poll/December 5, 2017

Health care is the most important problem facing the country today, 18 percent of voters say, as 17 percent list the economy. Another 13 percent of voters list foreign policy, while 11 percent cite terrorism and 10 percent list race relations.

Voters say 55–32 percent that the Democratic Party can do a better job on health care.

Voters are closely divided on who does a better job on the economy, as 45 percent say the
Democratic Party and 43 percent say the Republican Party. Democrats are ahead on other issues:

56–34 percent that Democrats can do a better job “fighting for the working class;”

51–37 percent that Democrats can do a better job “representing your values.”

American voters say 50–36 percent, including 44–36 percent among independent voters that they would like the Democrats to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. Voters also say 51–37 percent, including 45–38
percent among independent voters, that they would like Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate in 2018.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=2504
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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#10
At least Quinnipiac polls post their methodology. Interestingly if you dig into their questions as to party affiliation you'll see Democrats comprise 33% of the questioned, Republicans 21%, with 38% saying Independent 8% went with "Other" (I imagine other could mean everything from Nazis, to Libertarians to Communists). As such this poll merely points out that Democrats think the Democratic Party is better.

Most interestingly the respondents seem to have come mostly from landline users. That of course means Boomers. So we can conclude from this poll that Democrat Boomers like the Democrat party.

Smells of fake poll to me.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
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#11
(12-07-2017, 11:40 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: At least Quinnipiac polls post their methodology.  Interestingly if you dig into their questions as to party affiliation you'll see Democrats comprise 33% of the questioned, Republicans 21%, with 38% saying Independent 8% went with "Other" (I imagine other could mean everything from Nazis, to Libertarians to Communists).  As such this poll merely points out that Democrats think the Democratic Party is better.

Most interestingly the respondents seem to have come mostly from landline users.  That of course means Boomers.  So we can conclude from this poll that Democrat Boomers like the Democrat party.

Smells of fake poll to me.

One must take gerrymandering into account in any prediction of the results of the 2018 election. This said, I find it hard to believe that all of the gain in support for Democrats will be in districts with overwhelming Democratic majorities. Large shifts typically take place among voters near the middle of the political spectrum.

Q is a highly-respected pollster. Question: what do you want to believe?

Sure, all sorts of crazy things are possible between now and November 2018, like a great change in the political culture to the benefit of President Trump and the GOP. You are as free to predict such as you are to believe that space aliens will soon land on the White House lawn.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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#12
(11-27-2017, 11:30 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(11-26-2017, 03:51 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: That, and the fact that on average the four labeled points skew Republican by 4 points.  That would have the Republicans losing the popular House vote by about 4 points, which given the Democrats' concentration in highly blue districts, would still have Republicans barely hanging on to the House.

Then there's the issue of taxation without adequate representation.  Do you honestly think that the mostly BLUE urbanites will countenance greatly diminished representation while paying the lion's share of the nation's taxes?   Both disparities have been growing in the last few decades.  I'll wager that we aren't too far from the tipping point, where that issue will move to the center of the political stage.

Add to this any perception that the Republicans are using changes in tax laws to reward supporters and punish opponents. This is not the GOP of the Gerald Ford - Bob Michel era anymore; this is a rigidly-disciplined cadre party intent on ruining the other side. Whether it can get away with such will either determine what sort of America meets the most dangerous phase of this Crisis Era. Corrupt, dictatorial regimes fared badly in the last Crisis Era. That observation includes Stalin's Soviet Union, which survived only because it could sacrifice far more cannon fodder than Nazi Germany.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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#13
"Voters are closely divided on who does a better job on the economy, as 45 percent say the
Democratic Party and 43 percent say the Republican Party."

Obviously, American voters are as wrong on that as could be. The margin should be at least as strongly Democratic as on the other issues. When will people realize that trickle-down economics doesn't work? How many decades of failure does it take?



"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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